Sunday, January 25, 2009

Another Winner

Let's look at Another Winner of the Current WWIII.

To learn from a Couple about the "Secrets" of "Avoiding Losing A Million (Minimum?)"

The Husband is an Old Friend of mine, first met in a UK University back in 1982.

In July 2007 (Yes, that was before the Credit Crunch started in Aug 2008!), the Couple flied with their Child to visit us in Australia.

Then one afternoon, while our Children were playing in the park, I casually told them I felt the Greatest Depression was coming and the Stock Markets were to CRASH.

They listened to me Patiently. When I finished presenting my views in brief, they pulled out their mobile phone and made an overseas call, instructing their agent to sell ALL their shares.

I kept reminding them, "Do NOT Punch me if the Share is to Rise!"

Thank God, they did NOT have a chance to punch me - although for a moment, I (subsequently) thought they could be Too Happy and might therefore kiss me!

Because they had only One Share (HSBC) at the time - they sold ALL.
Because they had sold ALL at HK$144 at the time and it's now only about HK$58.
That means they had avoided a Loss of about 60%!!!
Or, if they're to buy the SAME share now, they're to have 60% MORE shares with the SAME amount of Cash!

The Reason that they've made such a Huge Gain?

They're Kind Persons, Kind Parents.

They travelled over 5,500 miles to come to Australia, with Only One Purpose, One Thing In Mind,

To find more information to Further Improve their much loved & Already Top of the Class Child, Academically, Mentally, Socially, Emotionally, Physically........

Their Heart & Mind are Always on their Child.
To prepare their Child better for the coming challenges in Life.

That's why they are Winners.

Remember what I've been saying,

"Be Kind and Everything Comes to You" - even the Great Share Price!

Have a Great New (Ox) Year!

Fate
Parents are here to make Good Memories for Our Children

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

STOP

It's time to STOP.

STOP thinking about buying Any Share, from Any Market, at Any Price for at least another 2 months - no matter how Temping the Bargain Price appearing to be.

Just had a look of the Banks Share Prices.

Last Friday, Barclay's dropped by 25% just in the Last Hour of trading, lost 40% in a week and 82% in a year!

Lloyd's Group dropped by 31% yesterday and 88% in a year! The Royal Bank of Scotland lost 11% yesterday and 96% in a year!!

So, the above three 2nd-4th Largest Bank in UK now worths only about 73 Pence, 45 Pence & 10 Pence respectively! Gosh...less than 1 Sterling Pounds!! Less than a pack of "Birds Eye" 10 Value Fish Fingers at 75 Pence!! (www.iceland.co.uk)

And what about the once World's Largest Bank? Citi Group dropped by 20% (to US$2.8)yesterday and lost 90% in a year!!

Bank of America lost 29% (now at US$5.1) yesterday and also 90% in a year!!

So, what about my "One Love" - HSBC?

It's now at about HK$55, Sterling Pounds 4.85, with the 1-Year High Price of about HK$137 and Sterling Pounds 12.45.

If applying ONLY 80% drop (rather than the 82-96% drop as the above other leading banks) from its 1-Year High, HSBC could soon drop to,

About HK$27.4 or Sterling Pounds 2.49!!

And now I've to STOP and think what the Targeted Price for my 1st Phase buying of HSBC - it'll NO LONGER be HK$50. To avoid being Victimised, I've to Think the Unthinkable,

What if ALL the above Banks being Nationalised?

By then the Share Price for HSBC?












0!!

May have to be More Proactive in planning to Buy Gold.

But, for the Time Being, I will be just WAITING as usual.

Fate
Think Things Over to Avoid "Game Over"

Monday, January 19, 2009

Dangerous

I keep saying the Bravest, the Luckiest and the Quickest Speculators can still make a Good Profit from "Same Day Trading" during the Current Mad Share Markets.

But one has to be Extremely Cautious.

Just when most people pretending "life is Normal", there are More and Bigger Rescue Plans being implemented Everywhere, Everyday.

So, what Exactly is going on?

Given the Panic they've been showing, Every Government must have something REALLY B & B (BAD & BIG)Statistics right in front of them, Forcing them to take Dramtic Actions before it is Too Late.

And even More and Bigger Problems are Predicting and Building Up Everyday - so there is REAL CHANCE even the Quickest Speculators could be Trapped.

Could you imagine the Wall St is to be closed even just for 1 day?
What do you think would happen Next?

Remember, HK had closed the market for 4-days back in 87 CRASH?
Russia had only recently closed its market, on one occasion, three times a day!

Anything is Possible in Any given day.

Fate
Too Little Chance with Too Much Risk

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Review

I've received several calls and E Mails from closed friends recently, asking if NOW is the time to Buy HSBC shares, which just hit at a 10-year Low.

I know it's very very temping for many investors to now see the price for HSBC has dropped to HK$66, when it was about HK$153 in Nov 07 (i.e. a drop of over 55%)

But, I've stated all along (ever since June 2007 - yes, NOT 2008!! That's 18 months ago!!) this is NOT the time to buy Any Shares in Any part of the World!

(Well, unless you're the very few ones having Great Luck at this moment of time in your Life and spent Great Time everyday to sit next to your price monitor!)

In the Current WWIII, a day can make a Huge Difference.

Anyone taking a 5-day holiday could find themselves Broke after returning from overseas! In HK, during the few "Miracle Days", people became Loser from Winner after returning from their lunch break! A very Costy Lunch!

Although my post dated 27 Oct 07 stating I'd start buying HSBC at HK$60 with 1/3 of my cash, I did a Review about 2 weeks ago and decided I may start buying HSBC at around HK$50 only. (And the Targeted Prices for the remaining 2/3 Cash have also been Lowered accordingly)

Below please find my recent reply E mail to my Keen To Invest Friend

From: Fate
Date: 2009/1/14
Subject: WAIT
To: XXX

Hi XXX

You've to be careful with HSBC - it has to raise capital soon, so don't rush to buy.

Given that Standard Chartered and DBS had recently raised capital by offering about 49% and 43% discount respectively, HSBC could be forced to offer a big discount to attract existing shareholders.

If it is offering even a lower a 30% discount, with yesterday's closing price of HK$73, it will be HK$51. If it follows the above 2 bank's step closer, say offering a 45% discount to attract existing shareholders, its price will be around HK$40!!

I have adjusted my first phase buying price for HSBC around HK$50 - but just wait for a bit, it is soon to announce its result.

I have been keeping an eye on Industrial Bank of China, just would like to see how much it is going to fall when the Strategic Shareholders are soon allowed to sell its shares. There are too many "Traps", like there is another firm supposedly to have $800 million cash in its accounting book but has just declared bankrupt!

Just wait for another month - Britain is now in serious trouble, they have to spend at least another 400 Billion Pounds to stimulate the market, so is US. In fact, everywhere, look how bad Sony has performed!

Hope the above helps.

Regards
Fate
Waiting is Testing
www.fatesecrets.blogspot.com


Remember, in this Ever Changing Climate, one has to be Very Careful and has to conduct Constant Weekly Review to avoid being Victimised.

Remember, Citi Group was the World's No. 1 Bank in 2007, when HSBC was only about 6th or 7th at the time. Citi Croup was last traded at US$4.6 (about HK$36). So, how Low do you think HSBC could go?

Ask yourself the Most Important Question when Investing,

"Do I have to Buy it NOW?"

Fate
Never Earn Your Money So Hard Only To Lose Them So Easily

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

The Winners

Let's look at the Winners.

Many of my friends were not effected in the 97-98 Asian Crisis but get burnt this time;
Some of my friends got burnt during the 97-98 Asian Crisis but not losing this time;
Few of my friends fell on both occasions.
But only two of my friends stand as the "Winner" for the last 11 years!!

One of them is a long time friend of my wife.
She is just a normal, quiet civil servant, knows nothing much about investment.
But yet, her Instincts, Willing to Listen and Act Promptly has made her standing out from countless losers, including some very experienced professional investors.

In 98, I'd urged her to sell her unit bought under the "Home Ownership Scheme" back to HK Housing Authority, as the Authority was Obliged under the Regulation to "Buy Back the unit at the Original Price", meaning even the Market Price was dropped by over 50%, she suffered NO Loss under the "Price Guarantee". She did it.

With the Money got back from the Authority, she bought a Bargain & Bigger unit in a Better area as the housing market was collapsing.

Then in 2007, I visited HK in April, witnessing the Madness in the HK stock market, I then wrote an article in the baby-kingdom website when I later returned Australia (please refer to the First Post of this Blog, titled "The Beginnings"), warning the Greatest Depression was coming. And I'd specifically warned her about the Sub-Prime Situation in US was to have a Dramatic Knock On Effect everywhere, advising her should consider taking actions to protect herself.

She eventually put her house in the market and had it sold in Aug last year at a Good Price - before the HK house price started dropping by 30%. And she is now living in a much bigger, better rental and only 1-minute walk to her daughter's school!

Why she is so "Lucky"??

Because she has been so Kind to her Mother, her Husband and her Daughter.
Remember, "Be Kind and Everything Comes to You"?

She continues giving her Mother Good Pocket Money every month even though her Mother no longer looks after her girl.

She reminded her Husband he could have a Career Break and she could keep the family going on her one wage, when the Asian Crisis had wiped out many jobs.

She has given her Daughter the Best Gift in Life, a younger sister, to ensure she has the Love and Companion.

She always think of her Loved Ones FIRST.
Not thinking about Making Money.

She is a person that Never Complains, Seldom say a Bad Word against anyone and Always Get Up and Do Things.

It is the Dream for every investor to,
"Buy Low, Sell High".
Not only she has done it, she has done it TWICE!!
And a lot of Bargains are now in front of her.
Be it Cheap House, be it Cheap Shares......

So, when I keep hearing people complaining,
"Life is So Unfair"
I can't stop laughing and shaking my head and Almost telling them
(Yes, only "Almost" because I do NOT wish to be hitted!)

"You're NOT even showing some Self Respect by doing your Job Properly - when is the last time you are being Evasive, trying your best to tell customer to "Go Away"?"

"You're NOT even showing Respect for others when pushing everyone out of your way, when you're rushing to office after getting up too late due to all night internet!"

"You're NOT even answering the incoming customer call!"

"You're NOT....................................."

Life is Actually Quite Fair.
Because No Gaining Without First Giving.

Fate
Be Kind and Be Happy then Be Rewarded

Thursday, January 8, 2009

The Greatest Test

It's sad to read the report of a Billionaire in Germany committing suicide.
And he is at the age of 74 - has previously survived all these financial downturns for the last 50 years.

This is just another Blunt Reminder of How Cruel of this Never Forgiving WWIII could be,

One Mistake and you could be Wiped Out.

But then again we have to see things in a New Way.

In the Current WWIII,
You're Good if you've lost 30%;
You're Average if you've lost 50%; and
You're only Slightly Below Average when you've lost 70%.

Because even the Flagship of Warren Buffete had a over 70% drop in revenue in its last quarterly result!

Remember, even the world's most profitable car maker, Toyota, has its First Loss in its 71-history and is to stop production for 11 days in the coming 2 months (after stopping for 3 days in Jan)

Remember, even in US, the 0-0.25% Federal Rate has never been in existence before.

Remember, even in UK, its 2% Interest rate is already the Lowest since 1951 and is tipped to be cut further this week to reach the Lowest Ever since 1694 when the BOE was founded!

Everyday, History is being Made and Made Again.
The Coming Greatest Depression is to bring with it the Greatest Uncertainty, demanding us to have the Greatest Courage & the Greatest Patience.

For those could stand this Greatest Test would remain Standing as the Winners in 3-5 year time.

Fate
Changing Your Life by Changing Your Thinking

Saturday, January 3, 2009

The MRA

Form the MRF to what I call the Most Relevant Action (MRA).

MRF now is the Arriving of the Global Massive Unemployment.

Some firms trying to delay lying off staff by first Reducing wages of 4-10% in HK.
(One of the largest employers in Macau has just reduced wages of is staff by about 13%)

Some trying to delay lying off staff by enforcing "Compulsory" "Voluntary" (sound interesting, isn't it?) one day No Pay Leave every week/month.

Some trying to reduce other benefits (e.g. Motorola cut contributions in staff's retirement benefit)

It is estimated 250-300 of the about 800 listed mining firms in Australia will collapse within this year.

And the 100-year-old Woolworth in Britain with 800 stores just collapsed.

Even the once Untouchable IT Giant Microsoft is, for the 1st time in its 32-year existence, tipped to cut its global workforce of about 91,000 by 10%.

More and More Jobs are going every day.

This mean that even the Mortgage Rate in HK is as low as 3.25% now, noone is rushing to buy a property. When only back in early 97, almost everyone was rushing to grab whatever is available in the property market, even though the Mortgage Rate was well over 10%!! (i.e. 3 Times More than Now!)

Because at the time the house price was rising AND HK was almost in FULL employment.

The Same is now applied to UK and US.

It is no longer a Fear but a Reality that people will be fired and in some instance fired immediately.

So, the MRA now is :-

- WAIT for those having CASH in hand.
What appears to be Cheap at present will be Expansive in less than 3-month time.

- ACT Now for those having HK$ and US$ (if NOT already done so as per my previous advice). Any country keeps printing money will ultimately see its currency falling and falling. US$ is no exception, and sorry for HK$ - it is tied to US$.

- ASSESS Now for those having 30-50% Loss in share prices. If they agree with me that share is to fall by at least another 50% from its current level, they should consider selling their shares now and buy them back later at a much lower price.

- MONITOR Now for the Gold Price. Buy when it drops to a certain level (set your Target Price) Because if US New Government can NOT deal with the WWIII Effectively, people will buy Gold for Security. And if the WWIII is dealt with Effectively, then people still will buy Gold for Worrying Inflation is to return due to massive circulation of money generated by the numerous stimulus/rescue packages. In either case, Gold Price will only Rise due to Higher demand.

Fate
New Era Demands New Thinking
P.S. Thanks Fiona for your feedback on 31 Dec posted at my 15 Dec post. Trust you'd a Great Start in the New Year.