Just a Courteous Reminder about the coming,
"Face to Face with Fate"
Although we have an Extremely Tight Programme in Asia, it'll be a Honour & Pleasure to meet some of you while we're in HK on (Sun) 7 Dec 2008.
(My Boys & My Boss, that is, my wife. Make no mistakes, Women are always the Boss! will mostly likely be there too)
For details, please refer to my blog dated 30 Oct.
In Life, we all have Choices and it is Your Choice.
Fate
You Decide Your Own Fate
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Bottom?
It seems that everyday comes with more surprises.
Everyday is no longer "Normal' if there is No More "Roller Coaster" in the markets!
Britain had the biggest ever one day rise (about 10%) in its share market.
And Wall St had the biggest 2-day rise since the 80s.
Now, after Taiwan, even Japan is handing out "Vouchers", encouraging consumers to 'Spend, Spend, Spend" - to keep the economy going.
Yet, at the same time, there are More and More "Problem Banks" added onto the (US) Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., now 171 of them, Highest since 1995! And more "0" onto the US Federal Deficit!
Just when the Citi shares surged after the announcement of US Government bail out plan, the Rio Tino shares dropped by at one point over 40% in one day after the announcement of BHP giving up its take over plan!
Everything happens so Fast, so Large and yet so Extreme - from one side to the far other side!
One year ago, who would have thought the US to have a Black President?
One month ago, who would have thought Standard Chartered Bank to raise capital by offering a almost 50% discount in share price?
One week ago, who would have thought there are Two Presidents in USA?
One day ago, who would have the markets..................?
I have been asked many many times for the last few days,
"Are the share markets (in HK, US, Australia etc.......) at the Bottom?"
I have to repeat what I have been saying for the last 16 months,
"No, markets are NOT at the Bottom yet - and you have to smack your Bottom if you rush to buy without the Right Strategy and Right Mentality."
Then again, I could be Wrong.
But if I am Right, you are to join the "Financial Casualties" - even the once known as the "Middle East King of Shares", a Saudi Prince had a Paper Loss of over US$25 Billion as at last Friday!
Please keep your Money Safe.
Fate
CRASH is caused by Yourself and NO one else
Everyday is no longer "Normal' if there is No More "Roller Coaster" in the markets!
Britain had the biggest ever one day rise (about 10%) in its share market.
And Wall St had the biggest 2-day rise since the 80s.
Now, after Taiwan, even Japan is handing out "Vouchers", encouraging consumers to 'Spend, Spend, Spend" - to keep the economy going.
Yet, at the same time, there are More and More "Problem Banks" added onto the (US) Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., now 171 of them, Highest since 1995! And more "0" onto the US Federal Deficit!
Just when the Citi shares surged after the announcement of US Government bail out plan, the Rio Tino shares dropped by at one point over 40% in one day after the announcement of BHP giving up its take over plan!
Everything happens so Fast, so Large and yet so Extreme - from one side to the far other side!
One year ago, who would have thought the US to have a Black President?
One month ago, who would have thought Standard Chartered Bank to raise capital by offering a almost 50% discount in share price?
One week ago, who would have thought there are Two Presidents in USA?
One day ago, who would have the markets..................?
I have been asked many many times for the last few days,
"Are the share markets (in HK, US, Australia etc.......) at the Bottom?"
I have to repeat what I have been saying for the last 16 months,
"No, markets are NOT at the Bottom yet - and you have to smack your Bottom if you rush to buy without the Right Strategy and Right Mentality."
Then again, I could be Wrong.
But if I am Right, you are to join the "Financial Casualties" - even the once known as the "Middle East King of Shares", a Saudi Prince had a Paper Loss of over US$25 Billion as at last Friday!
Please keep your Money Safe.
Fate
CRASH is caused by Yourself and NO one else
Monday, November 24, 2008
A Story
I once read the following story.
40+ years ago, there was a Young Hardworking & Honest man.
He owned a small factory manufacturing plastic products. One day, after realising he was short of money to keep his factory going, he became very sad and squatted in front of his factory.
An elderly woman passing by and asking him what he was sad.
This Young Man told the Elderly Woman about his current financial problem. Realising the Young Man was actually living a road down from her and was convinced the Young Man was a Good Man, the Elderly Woman volunteered to lend him some money.
The Young Man was in tears, thanked the Elderly Woman, assuring her he would never forget her Kindness and would repay her one day. The following week the Elderly Woman moved to live with her daughter in another place due to her deteriorating health.
Then 5 years gone.
Then one day, the Elderly Woman returned to visit her old home.
A well dressed man was standing outside her old home, who was very pleased to address her in the most respectful manner, "Good Morning, Madam. Are you Mrs X?"
The Elderly Woman replied, "Yes."
"Madam, I have to point out that we have never met. But I was instructed to wait for you here."
"Oh, really?' The Elderly Woman replied, "How long have you been waiting for?"
"For the last 5 years, Madam."
The well dressed man then took the very surprised Elderly Woman into a luxury car, driving her to a Upper Class Suburb, showing her two luxury penthouse units with wonderful seaviews and then asked her, "Madam, which unit do you like more?"
"I'm not quire sure. They're both very very nice - it's really hard to pick one." The Elderly Woman answered.
"In that case, could I suggest you to take both then, my dear Mrs X." Another Man suddenly appeared and stated.
Yes, that "Another Man" is the Young Man that once was helped by the Elderly Woman.
He was paying back her Kindness.
One penthhouse unit for her and her family to live in and the other for her to lease out!
The Young Man later became the Richest Man in Asia, one of the Richest Persons in the world.
And his name?
Not important.
What really important are :
1) The BEST investment is NOT Shares, Houses, Gold, Forex or....... but People.
2) There are always someone we may have NEVER met before in our Life that change Our Life Completely - the Unsung Heroes.
Fate
Be Kind and Everything comes to you
40+ years ago, there was a Young Hardworking & Honest man.
He owned a small factory manufacturing plastic products. One day, after realising he was short of money to keep his factory going, he became very sad and squatted in front of his factory.
An elderly woman passing by and asking him what he was sad.
This Young Man told the Elderly Woman about his current financial problem. Realising the Young Man was actually living a road down from her and was convinced the Young Man was a Good Man, the Elderly Woman volunteered to lend him some money.
The Young Man was in tears, thanked the Elderly Woman, assuring her he would never forget her Kindness and would repay her one day. The following week the Elderly Woman moved to live with her daughter in another place due to her deteriorating health.
Then 5 years gone.
Then one day, the Elderly Woman returned to visit her old home.
A well dressed man was standing outside her old home, who was very pleased to address her in the most respectful manner, "Good Morning, Madam. Are you Mrs X?"
The Elderly Woman replied, "Yes."
"Madam, I have to point out that we have never met. But I was instructed to wait for you here."
"Oh, really?' The Elderly Woman replied, "How long have you been waiting for?"
"For the last 5 years, Madam."
The well dressed man then took the very surprised Elderly Woman into a luxury car, driving her to a Upper Class Suburb, showing her two luxury penthouse units with wonderful seaviews and then asked her, "Madam, which unit do you like more?"
"I'm not quire sure. They're both very very nice - it's really hard to pick one." The Elderly Woman answered.
"In that case, could I suggest you to take both then, my dear Mrs X." Another Man suddenly appeared and stated.
Yes, that "Another Man" is the Young Man that once was helped by the Elderly Woman.
He was paying back her Kindness.
One penthhouse unit for her and her family to live in and the other for her to lease out!
The Young Man later became the Richest Man in Asia, one of the Richest Persons in the world.
And his name?
Not important.
What really important are :
1) The BEST investment is NOT Shares, Houses, Gold, Forex or....... but People.
2) There are always someone we may have NEVER met before in our Life that change Our Life Completely - the Unsung Heroes.
Fate
Be Kind and Everything comes to you
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Biggest Risk
Here we go again.
Everything is on Free Fall - again.
Wall ST fell by over 5% overnight - closing at below 8,000 mark as per my expectation - the Lowest so far in the current WWIII.
Even the Australian's S&P/AS200 dropped to 3,365 at the last check - that is over 50% drop from last Nov Peak.
The CPI in US fell by 1% in Oct - the Biggest Drop since the record started back in 1947!!
Now, everyone starts thinking about the word "Deflation" - moving forward from the word "Recession" and of course everyone also knows too well about the word "Depression" - Depressed every day waking up to see yet another Low!
Even Citi Group dropped by 23% in yesterday - yes, in ONE DAY!
And yes, even the Pirates (though NOT of the Caribbean) are back! Everything is Possible NOW!
Then again, remember what Investment is all about?
Investment is about "Managing/Minimising Risks"
So, where exactly are the Risks coming from?
From NOT "Diversifying" your Portfolio?
From NOT getting "Professional" advice?
From NOT investing for "Long Term"?
From............
NO. NONE of the above.
The Greatest Risk coming from............................
YOU!!!
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Share Money is Easy Money!!
(One could only wish Life is that Sweet - NO more Pressusring from Boss, Shouting from Customers and Buck Passing from colleagues!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Once you know the "Graph/Wave" Techinics, you will then know the Secrets to make Millions!!
(The Top 5 Wall St Investment Banks ALL have the SAME Super computers, SAME 1st Class Graduates, SAME 24-hour Working Hours etc. - and yet they all in BIG Troubles with 2 gone Bust, one sold itself to a Proper Bank and 2 rushed to become Proper Banks!!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed the "Professionals" are Real experts AND they will look after your Interests!!
(There is ONLY one kind of expert, Ripping Off expert! And they ONLY look after their OWN interest - the Management Fee or should I say, their Commission - they are ONLY Sales!!)
Do I have to go on?
The ONLY way to Minimise the Greatest Risk is to Invest in YOURSELF!
Fate
Best Investment in Life is "People"
Everything is on Free Fall - again.
Wall ST fell by over 5% overnight - closing at below 8,000 mark as per my expectation - the Lowest so far in the current WWIII.
Even the Australian's S&P/AS200 dropped to 3,365 at the last check - that is over 50% drop from last Nov Peak.
The CPI in US fell by 1% in Oct - the Biggest Drop since the record started back in 1947!!
Now, everyone starts thinking about the word "Deflation" - moving forward from the word "Recession" and of course everyone also knows too well about the word "Depression" - Depressed every day waking up to see yet another Low!
Even Citi Group dropped by 23% in yesterday - yes, in ONE DAY!
And yes, even the Pirates (though NOT of the Caribbean) are back! Everything is Possible NOW!
Then again, remember what Investment is all about?
Investment is about "Managing/Minimising Risks"
So, where exactly are the Risks coming from?
From NOT "Diversifying" your Portfolio?
From NOT getting "Professional" advice?
From NOT investing for "Long Term"?
From............
NO. NONE of the above.
The Greatest Risk coming from............................
YOU!!!
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Share Money is Easy Money!!
(One could only wish Life is that Sweet - NO more Pressusring from Boss, Shouting from Customers and Buck Passing from colleagues!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Once you know the "Graph/Wave" Techinics, you will then know the Secrets to make Millions!!
(The Top 5 Wall St Investment Banks ALL have the SAME Super computers, SAME 1st Class Graduates, SAME 24-hour Working Hours etc. - and yet they all in BIG Troubles with 2 gone Bust, one sold itself to a Proper Bank and 2 rushed to become Proper Banks!!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed the "Professionals" are Real experts AND they will look after your Interests!!
(There is ONLY one kind of expert, Ripping Off expert! And they ONLY look after their OWN interest - the Management Fee or should I say, their Commission - they are ONLY Sales!!)
Do I have to go on?
The ONLY way to Minimise the Greatest Risk is to Invest in YOURSELF!
Fate
Best Investment in Life is "People"
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Funny
It is funny to see some recent Headlines.
"China is to implement its Biggest Economic Stimulus Plan"
Yes, it is Huge in Numerical term - RMB$ 4 Trillion, US$586 Billion.
Let's look at the figure in another way.
There are 1.3 Billion people in China.
So, it would be about US$450 ONLY Per Person!!
"Japan, the World's 2nd Largest Economy, is now in Recession"
Sorry, I always think Japan has NEVER come out of Recession since its bubble burst in late80/early 90!
Some property still losing about 50% of it peak value after 18 years!
I was once told Japan had 3 Recessions in the 90s!! This explains why its interest rate is always c lose to 0%!!
Even its World's No.1 Car Maker, Toyota is speculated to lose its AAA rating.
"G20 Summit is discussing the Current Global Crisis"
Yes, ONLY discussing and NOT actually solving the problems!
After all, G20 has indeed reminded me "G2000" - the HK clothing retailer - Both are for Good Looking ONLY!
"UBS, the Swiss Banking Giant, is to follow Goldman Sach to suspend Bonus Payment to the Management"
Why are the Greedy Executives being paid for Taking Greater Risk for their OWN Greater Bonuses? And it's everyone else other than these Cunning Executives to foot the Giantic Bills when things go wrong?
The Rumour stated the reason why US Government NOT rescuing the Lehman was because its Board still proposing a "10 Million Bonus for Executives" on its book when begging for Public Money!
"Citi Group is to shed another 52,000 Job"
One may wonder why it needs so many staff from the start? To "Hard Sell" Sub-Prime related products?
And of course the Quickest Way to ensure "Profit" is soon on the horizon is to fire frontliners, saving for example, US$20 Million in cost and..............yes, to pay for the US$10 Million CEO's Pay Package!
It's NOT Funny that Wall St fell over 2.6% overnight, getting closer once again to the 8,000 Mark and Australian Market is at its New 4-year Low.
It's LEAST Funny to see More Roller Coaster Ride in days ahead!
Fate
Never Lose your Sense of Humour or to Lose Your Future
"China is to implement its Biggest Economic Stimulus Plan"
Yes, it is Huge in Numerical term - RMB$ 4 Trillion, US$586 Billion.
Let's look at the figure in another way.
There are 1.3 Billion people in China.
So, it would be about US$450 ONLY Per Person!!
"Japan, the World's 2nd Largest Economy, is now in Recession"
Sorry, I always think Japan has NEVER come out of Recession since its bubble burst in late80/early 90!
Some property still losing about 50% of it peak value after 18 years!
I was once told Japan had 3 Recessions in the 90s!! This explains why its interest rate is always c lose to 0%!!
Even its World's No.1 Car Maker, Toyota is speculated to lose its AAA rating.
"G20 Summit is discussing the Current Global Crisis"
Yes, ONLY discussing and NOT actually solving the problems!
After all, G20 has indeed reminded me "G2000" - the HK clothing retailer - Both are for Good Looking ONLY!
"UBS, the Swiss Banking Giant, is to follow Goldman Sach to suspend Bonus Payment to the Management"
Why are the Greedy Executives being paid for Taking Greater Risk for their OWN Greater Bonuses? And it's everyone else other than these Cunning Executives to foot the Giantic Bills when things go wrong?
The Rumour stated the reason why US Government NOT rescuing the Lehman was because its Board still proposing a "10 Million Bonus for Executives" on its book when begging for Public Money!
"Citi Group is to shed another 52,000 Job"
One may wonder why it needs so many staff from the start? To "Hard Sell" Sub-Prime related products?
And of course the Quickest Way to ensure "Profit" is soon on the horizon is to fire frontliners, saving for example, US$20 Million in cost and..............yes, to pay for the US$10 Million CEO's Pay Package!
It's NOT Funny that Wall St fell over 2.6% overnight, getting closer once again to the 8,000 Mark and Australian Market is at its New 4-year Low.
It's LEAST Funny to see More Roller Coaster Ride in days ahead!
Fate
Never Lose your Sense of Humour or to Lose Your Future
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Be HONEST
Did I not say, "The Worst is NOT over"?
Have you been selling your shares everytime when there is a Rebound to cut further loss?
Wall St dropped by another 3.82% on Friday - and once dropped below the 8,000 mark during the week. Australian market is now at 4 -year Low - and Both will be Much LOWER soon like many other markets.
Did I NOT say in last Dec by sending an E Mail to some of you, "US (& Europe) is ALREADY in Recession."?
Have you been listening to me to protect your hard earned cash?
After NZ, Ireland, Germany (the Europe Largest Economy) is now "officially' (i.e. many knew this months ago) in Recession, and joining the R-Club is Italy! And the 15-Member EuroZone is also in Recession. And US and UK are soon to be "officially" in Recession!
Just look at the figures.
36,500 being laid off in UK last month, that is, 1 worker being fired every 75 seconds!
In US, just the last two months alone, there were half a million workers being laid off - and there are now about 10 Million Unemployed in US!
In US, Retail Sales dropped by 2.8% in October - First such big drop since 92!
And the two US mortgage giants being recently Nationalised by US Government had a total quarterly loss of over US$54 Billions!
And the once seems to be quick safe Technology sector is also feeling the heat now - the Sun Microsystem just announced to cut 15% of its workforce!
Even the Legendary Investor, Warren Buffete, his flagship recently announced result - lost 77% in revenue!
Do you really wish to know the current Federal Budget Deficit figure?
Alright, it is over, hope I have not missed out one "0" - US$1,000,000,000,000!!
And if anyone thinks that my Buying Price for HSBC is unrealistic low, think again.
The once World's Largest Bank, the Citi group, its share price dropped by 68% so far this year making its the Third Biggest Drop share amongst the DJIA (just behind GM) And its share price of US$9.45 is at 12-year Low!
Some of you may be regretting for NOT listening to my Warning back then.
I would not blame you - I am NOBODY - why did you have to trust me back then?
I am NOT a Billionaire, NOT a Reputable Investment Banker, NOT a Hedge Fund Star, NOT a Host in a Popular TV/Radio programme, basically NOT one with a Proven Investment Record etc.....
But remember this is NOT about me - it's all about YOU!
Have you been Honest to Yourself?
Have you been Realistic about YOUR Own Investment?
Have you been Admitting Making Mistakes?
Different People take the SAME Advice differently.
Some may just ignore it all together because this is NOT what they want to hear.
Some may think there is a Point but are not bother to act on it.
Some may take it seriously but never find the time to act.
Some just go and ACT.
Remember, there is always a chance someone saying one sentence that may change/might have changed your Life - change your Life FOREVER.
I had that experience 28 years ago but.............I now cannot even remember his name!
My name is .................NOT important, make sure you know your Investment Goal,
Keep your Capital.
Fate
Be Honest to Yourself
Have you been selling your shares everytime when there is a Rebound to cut further loss?
Wall St dropped by another 3.82% on Friday - and once dropped below the 8,000 mark during the week. Australian market is now at 4 -year Low - and Both will be Much LOWER soon like many other markets.
Did I NOT say in last Dec by sending an E Mail to some of you, "US (& Europe) is ALREADY in Recession."?
Have you been listening to me to protect your hard earned cash?
After NZ, Ireland, Germany (the Europe Largest Economy) is now "officially' (i.e. many knew this months ago) in Recession, and joining the R-Club is Italy! And the 15-Member EuroZone is also in Recession. And US and UK are soon to be "officially" in Recession!
Just look at the figures.
36,500 being laid off in UK last month, that is, 1 worker being fired every 75 seconds!
In US, just the last two months alone, there were half a million workers being laid off - and there are now about 10 Million Unemployed in US!
In US, Retail Sales dropped by 2.8% in October - First such big drop since 92!
And the two US mortgage giants being recently Nationalised by US Government had a total quarterly loss of over US$54 Billions!
And the once seems to be quick safe Technology sector is also feeling the heat now - the Sun Microsystem just announced to cut 15% of its workforce!
Even the Legendary Investor, Warren Buffete, his flagship recently announced result - lost 77% in revenue!
Do you really wish to know the current Federal Budget Deficit figure?
Alright, it is over, hope I have not missed out one "0" - US$1,000,000,000,000!!
And if anyone thinks that my Buying Price for HSBC is unrealistic low, think again.
The once World's Largest Bank, the Citi group, its share price dropped by 68% so far this year making its the Third Biggest Drop share amongst the DJIA (just behind GM) And its share price of US$9.45 is at 12-year Low!
Some of you may be regretting for NOT listening to my Warning back then.
I would not blame you - I am NOBODY - why did you have to trust me back then?
I am NOT a Billionaire, NOT a Reputable Investment Banker, NOT a Hedge Fund Star, NOT a Host in a Popular TV/Radio programme, basically NOT one with a Proven Investment Record etc.....
But remember this is NOT about me - it's all about YOU!
Have you been Honest to Yourself?
Have you been Realistic about YOUR Own Investment?
Have you been Admitting Making Mistakes?
Different People take the SAME Advice differently.
Some may just ignore it all together because this is NOT what they want to hear.
Some may think there is a Point but are not bother to act on it.
Some may take it seriously but never find the time to act.
Some just go and ACT.
Remember, there is always a chance someone saying one sentence that may change/might have changed your Life - change your Life FOREVER.
I had that experience 28 years ago but.............I now cannot even remember his name!
My name is .................NOT important, make sure you know your Investment Goal,
Keep your Capital.
Fate
Be Honest to Yourself
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
How Deep
One of my favourite songs is, "How Deep is Your Love".
But one of the most favourite topics in the global finance now is,
"How Deep is US's Recession?"
So, let's all go back to the Staring Point of this current WWIII - US.
Now, not only the financial sector, autocar sector etc. (and soon retail sector and airline sector) are knocking on the doors of the US Government, even the law firms are collapsing, some of them have been around for decades, few of them were once in the most profitable hundreds and very few of them even were once International Big firms. They just collapsed outright.
And there are 50% rise in corporate bankruptcies (now at over 18,400) for the first six months of this year when compared with the same period last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12law.html?_r=l&ref=business&oref=slogin
And the housing market just got worse because the house value continues to fall - even some bought them quite recently at what appeared to be bargain prices. Some smaller towns are having an Unemployment Rate already over 10%!
It is estimated about 25% of house with mortgage in US (i.e. about 9.7 million homes) are either "Underwater" (i.e. Negative Equity) or "Within Striking Distance of becoming one"! More and more people are now cutting expenditures, spending more time at home!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/business/11home.html?ref=business
And Wall St dropped by about 2% overnight, with GM dropped to US$2.90, a 65-year-low!! An analyst just downgraded it to "Sell", claiming its Target Price will be - have a guess?
Target Price will be...........
Yes....$0!!
So, if anyone thinks that my Target Buying Prices for HSBC are too Low, think Again - they have not seen the real effects of this current WWIII have on the share prices YET!
Even the Merrill Lynch Chairperson and CEO has finally joined a few Visionary Investors in stressing the current Recession could only be compared with the one in 1929!! He also reminded others the current Recession is "Contracting Sharply."
www.ft.com/cms/s/o/834ebf5e-aff9-11dd-a795-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
I believe not only the current WWII would result in a Sharp recession but also a Prolonged One.
So, please do NOT Rush to Buy YET.
Fate
Rushing is Regretting
But one of the most favourite topics in the global finance now is,
"How Deep is US's Recession?"
So, let's all go back to the Staring Point of this current WWIII - US.
Now, not only the financial sector, autocar sector etc. (and soon retail sector and airline sector) are knocking on the doors of the US Government, even the law firms are collapsing, some of them have been around for decades, few of them were once in the most profitable hundreds and very few of them even were once International Big firms. They just collapsed outright.
And there are 50% rise in corporate bankruptcies (now at over 18,400) for the first six months of this year when compared with the same period last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12law.html?_r=l&ref=business&oref=slogin
And the housing market just got worse because the house value continues to fall - even some bought them quite recently at what appeared to be bargain prices. Some smaller towns are having an Unemployment Rate already over 10%!
It is estimated about 25% of house with mortgage in US (i.e. about 9.7 million homes) are either "Underwater" (i.e. Negative Equity) or "Within Striking Distance of becoming one"! More and more people are now cutting expenditures, spending more time at home!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/business/11home.html?ref=business
And Wall St dropped by about 2% overnight, with GM dropped to US$2.90, a 65-year-low!! An analyst just downgraded it to "Sell", claiming its Target Price will be - have a guess?
Target Price will be...........
Yes....$0!!
So, if anyone thinks that my Target Buying Prices for HSBC are too Low, think Again - they have not seen the real effects of this current WWIII have on the share prices YET!
Even the Merrill Lynch Chairperson and CEO has finally joined a few Visionary Investors in stressing the current Recession could only be compared with the one in 1929!! He also reminded others the current Recession is "Contracting Sharply."
www.ft.com/cms/s/o/834ebf5e-aff9-11dd-a795-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
I believe not only the current WWII would result in a Sharp recession but also a Prolonged One.
So, please do NOT Rush to Buy YET.
Fate
Rushing is Regretting
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Simple
I've been extremely busy for the last two weeks.
Amongst other things, I'd been climbing up mountains of obstacles in trying to upgrade/open Premier accounts with HSBC. At last I got there.
In Life, what normally seen as "Simple" very often turns out to be Much More Complicated.
A Simple Rule in share (or in fact, EVERY) investment,
"Buy Low, Sell High"
So Easy to understand and yet So Hard to Implement.
How come so many people have been doing the Exact Opposite for the last 16 months?
Ask yourself,
Why do you have to invest NOW (back then)?
Even in Australia, had one been Patient, s/he would have got the Rewards by now.
The SAME amount of money now buys MORE.
I read the newspaper yesterday (http://www.thedaily.com.au/), reporting the Carpenters, used to charge A$45-60 an hour (then pay them another 2-hour rate on travelling!) now accepting A$30-35 an hour! That's a drop of over 30%!!
This mean you have a 30% GAIN by doing NOTHING for the last year!!
Better than your rushing to buy still "Under Water" shares?
The Global Economy, according to the World bank, has for the 1st time in 27 years, CONTRACTED!
It's so Simple to see we're in Big Trouble - Globally, Locally.
Fate
Do the Simplest Thing - WAIT
Amongst other things, I'd been climbing up mountains of obstacles in trying to upgrade/open Premier accounts with HSBC. At last I got there.
In Life, what normally seen as "Simple" very often turns out to be Much More Complicated.
A Simple Rule in share (or in fact, EVERY) investment,
"Buy Low, Sell High"
So Easy to understand and yet So Hard to Implement.
How come so many people have been doing the Exact Opposite for the last 16 months?
Ask yourself,
Why do you have to invest NOW (back then)?
Even in Australia, had one been Patient, s/he would have got the Rewards by now.
The SAME amount of money now buys MORE.
I read the newspaper yesterday (http://www.thedaily.com.au/), reporting the Carpenters, used to charge A$45-60 an hour (then pay them another 2-hour rate on travelling!) now accepting A$30-35 an hour! That's a drop of over 30%!!
This mean you have a 30% GAIN by doing NOTHING for the last year!!
Better than your rushing to buy still "Under Water" shares?
The Global Economy, according to the World bank, has for the 1st time in 27 years, CONTRACTED!
It's so Simple to see we're in Big Trouble - Globally, Locally.
Fate
Do the Simplest Thing - WAIT
Saturday, November 8, 2008
New President, Old Problems
The Positive Effects on the global share markets after a Positive New US President been selected was shorlived.
On Wed & Thur, Wall ST fell by a total of about 10% - this could have triggered off a Massive 1-day 23% drop like it did in 87 - the Black Monday. Luckily, it rose by 2.85% on Friday, on rumours that Federal Reserve has to cut rate again and the US Government is to bail out the Autocar industry.
Given that the US Rate is already at 1%, the Lowest since 1958, how much Lower could it be - or How Effective will a Lower Rate actually change things? The Rate is now back to late 2003 level, which was blamed by most commentators as the Root Cause of the Current Bubble - Cheap Money.
Now, one of the Biggest Employer in US is in Deep Trouble, the Autocar industry - together they directly employ 3 Million workers - imagine they all join the "Dole Queue"? And the Indirected Employed workers also in Millions! The three big names, GM, Ford and Chrysler need Big Cash to survive, Need Money NOW.
How much Spare Cash the US Government has? Or to print?
So what other industries it has to save after the Banking, Insurance, now, the Autocar.....?? the Airline, the Retail.....?
US Unemployment Rate is at 6.5%, rose from 6.1% - the Highest since 1994 - did I not say in my previous blog about "Higher Unemployment."? It will rise Higher and Higher - Everywhere.
UK had its shocking 1.5% rate cut on Thursday, making its Base Rate now at 3%, the Lowest since 1955 - and the Biggest Cut since BOE took over the Interest Rate Cut decision since 1997. The reasons?
UK House Price dropped by 2.2% in October when compared with September, making the Annual House Price drop of 15%! And IMF released its outlook for UK on the same day, predicting the UK Economy Growth is to Shrink by 1.3% in 2009! Worse than US, Worse than Euro Zone!
Australia had another 0.75% drop On Tuesday, 2% has been cut so far, making its Base Rate at 5.25%, the Lowest in 2 1/2 years. Still, the current Global Slowdown has made a A$40 Billion Hole in its Federal Budget!
And its Biggest Childcare Provider, the ABC learning, with 1,200 centres in Australia employing over 16,000 staff has finally collapsed - Administrator called in days ago. The Once darling of the Share Market now vanished, leaving the Government to rush putting in an A$22 Million temporary assistance package. The Lesson?
Never Overstretch Yourself.
ABC Learning BORROWED TOO MUCH! And TOO Optimistic!
Are you making the Same Mistake,
Overestimate the Income by 20% AND Underestimate the Expenditures by 20%?
Leaving yourself 40%+ BIG HOLE!
IMF has just pointed out the economies of the Industrial Countries are Shrinking - the First time since WWII - except Australia, which it is seen to have growth at 1.8%, though Our Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd insisting it should be 2.x%!
In short, the US Economy will GET WORSE.
So will the global share markets!
And everytime there is a rebound, remember to SELL!
Keep CASH- CASH is no longer King - CASH IS NOW GOD!
Fate
Never Lose Focus - Or Lose Your Cash
On Wed & Thur, Wall ST fell by a total of about 10% - this could have triggered off a Massive 1-day 23% drop like it did in 87 - the Black Monday. Luckily, it rose by 2.85% on Friday, on rumours that Federal Reserve has to cut rate again and the US Government is to bail out the Autocar industry.
Given that the US Rate is already at 1%, the Lowest since 1958, how much Lower could it be - or How Effective will a Lower Rate actually change things? The Rate is now back to late 2003 level, which was blamed by most commentators as the Root Cause of the Current Bubble - Cheap Money.
Now, one of the Biggest Employer in US is in Deep Trouble, the Autocar industry - together they directly employ 3 Million workers - imagine they all join the "Dole Queue"? And the Indirected Employed workers also in Millions! The three big names, GM, Ford and Chrysler need Big Cash to survive, Need Money NOW.
How much Spare Cash the US Government has? Or to print?
So what other industries it has to save after the Banking, Insurance, now, the Autocar.....?? the Airline, the Retail.....?
US Unemployment Rate is at 6.5%, rose from 6.1% - the Highest since 1994 - did I not say in my previous blog about "Higher Unemployment."? It will rise Higher and Higher - Everywhere.
UK had its shocking 1.5% rate cut on Thursday, making its Base Rate now at 3%, the Lowest since 1955 - and the Biggest Cut since BOE took over the Interest Rate Cut decision since 1997. The reasons?
UK House Price dropped by 2.2% in October when compared with September, making the Annual House Price drop of 15%! And IMF released its outlook for UK on the same day, predicting the UK Economy Growth is to Shrink by 1.3% in 2009! Worse than US, Worse than Euro Zone!
Australia had another 0.75% drop On Tuesday, 2% has been cut so far, making its Base Rate at 5.25%, the Lowest in 2 1/2 years. Still, the current Global Slowdown has made a A$40 Billion Hole in its Federal Budget!
And its Biggest Childcare Provider, the ABC learning, with 1,200 centres in Australia employing over 16,000 staff has finally collapsed - Administrator called in days ago. The Once darling of the Share Market now vanished, leaving the Government to rush putting in an A$22 Million temporary assistance package. The Lesson?
Never Overstretch Yourself.
ABC Learning BORROWED TOO MUCH! And TOO Optimistic!
Are you making the Same Mistake,
Overestimate the Income by 20% AND Underestimate the Expenditures by 20%?
Leaving yourself 40%+ BIG HOLE!
IMF has just pointed out the economies of the Industrial Countries are Shrinking - the First time since WWII - except Australia, which it is seen to have growth at 1.8%, though Our Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd insisting it should be 2.x%!
In short, the US Economy will GET WORSE.
So will the global share markets!
And everytime there is a rebound, remember to SELL!
Keep CASH- CASH is no longer King - CASH IS NOW GOD!
Fate
Never Lose Focus - Or Lose Your Cash
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Why Rush?
About 18 months ago, many many HK people were rushing to invest - thanks to the daily "Brain Washing" in the newspapers, radio talk show, TV financial programmes. All these so called "Experts" kept scaring small investors,
"Inflation is eating into your savings."
"How could you beat the 0.01% interest rate on your saving accounts?"
With the benefit of hindsight, you can now take a breathe and assess what Damages have been done after taking the advice of the above "Experts" to your Pockets!
You are good if you are losing 30% - many are losing 50% and some losing over 70%!!
And the reason was : They thought they HAD to invest!!
As mentioned in my E Mail sent to several parents back in Aug 2007 (i.e. 15 months ago)
"One does NOT have to do anything can still make a Good Return."
Because when the Recession arrives, your SAME amount of money WILL buy More.
It's the ACTUAL Buying Power and NOT the Nominal Value of your Money that matters.
Also, after passing their Record High in July 2008, Petrol, Gold, A$, NZ$, Sterling Pounds, other Commodities etc., they have dropped at least over 30% - but now you have NO money to capitalise this Great Opportunity! Same to the shares markets, even Blue Chips could rise and fall over 20% in a day!
So, what was the Rush?
Remember, there is AT LEAST One Opportunity Every 10 years.
Remember, Rushing to Buy is Rushing to "Bye" - saying "Bye" to your Hard Earned Cash!
Fate
Keep Your Capital
"Inflation is eating into your savings."
"How could you beat the 0.01% interest rate on your saving accounts?"
With the benefit of hindsight, you can now take a breathe and assess what Damages have been done after taking the advice of the above "Experts" to your Pockets!
You are good if you are losing 30% - many are losing 50% and some losing over 70%!!
And the reason was : They thought they HAD to invest!!
As mentioned in my E Mail sent to several parents back in Aug 2007 (i.e. 15 months ago)
"One does NOT have to do anything can still make a Good Return."
Because when the Recession arrives, your SAME amount of money WILL buy More.
It's the ACTUAL Buying Power and NOT the Nominal Value of your Money that matters.
Also, after passing their Record High in July 2008, Petrol, Gold, A$, NZ$, Sterling Pounds, other Commodities etc., they have dropped at least over 30% - but now you have NO money to capitalise this Great Opportunity! Same to the shares markets, even Blue Chips could rise and fall over 20% in a day!
So, what was the Rush?
Remember, there is AT LEAST One Opportunity Every 10 years.
Remember, Rushing to Buy is Rushing to "Bye" - saying "Bye" to your Hard Earned Cash!
Fate
Keep Your Capital
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