What normally takes 80 years to happen in the Global Financial Markets have happened in the last 18 months!
This is a Steep Learning Curve for ALL and Steep Losing Cost for Most.
Let's all :
Learn from the Past,
Change Our Future.
I therefore would like to share with you what I've learnt IN PERSON and hopefully, you're to share with me what you've learnt from this WWIII.
I'm to return to HK by the end of Nov and stay for 2 months for family reason/a holiday.
Date : (Sun) 7 December 2008
Time : 1000-1200 hrs
Venue : Mong Kok Police Recreation Club (Sai Yeung Choi Street North)
Prince Edward MTR Station Exit A
http://www.mtr.com.hk/jplanner/images/maps/pre.gif
Cost : Yes, because NOTHING is FREE in Life.
But you do NOT pay me.
PLEASE BRING A RECEIPT SHOWING A HK$18 DONATION HAS BEEN MADE.
Remarks :
As stated before, Investment is MOSTLY about Luck - Luck is 60%.
And Luck can be Accumulated by Being Kind to Others.
So, you're paying for YOURSELF - Be Kind, then one may not have Good Luck Everytime but Bad Luck will be kept away Most of the Times.
See if I've any Luck in Meeting some of you and Learning from you.
Fate
Everyone is a Teacher
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Be the Minority
Wall St has one Big Gain,
But, then again, this's NOT a Game;
It's Time to SELL and NOT to Buy,
Or you're to Kiss your Money Goodbye;
Big Crocodiles want you to Die,
So that they could all get High.
My Friend, please regain your Common Sense,
Or you're to lose Every Cent;
Be Patient or be a Heart Attack Patient,
As the Greatest CRASH soon gets your Attention.
Fate
Be the Minority - Be a Winner
But, then again, this's NOT a Game;
It's Time to SELL and NOT to Buy,
Or you're to Kiss your Money Goodbye;
Big Crocodiles want you to Die,
So that they could all get High.
My Friend, please regain your Common Sense,
Or you're to lose Every Cent;
Be Patient or be a Heart Attack Patient,
As the Greatest CRASH soon gets your Attention.
Fate
Be the Minority - Be a Winner
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Plan B
In Life, one should always have Plan B.
After liaising with my HSBC bank in Britain, I now realise there are some technical difficulties to buy HSBC share in Sterling Pound from the London Stock Exchange - simply because I am now NOT in Britain!
While trying to overcome the obstacles, I now have a Plan B by taking advantage of my Another Circumstance - I am now in Australia, utlising my HSBC AUS Premier A/C.
I now serious consider buying share of an Australian Giant, the World's Largest Mining Firm, BHP.
First, it is always better and especially in the current climax to buy the Biggest - because there are more potentail big players coming on board or even the Governement has to come to rescue if the Biggest struggles or fails.
Second, the A$ is at a 5 1/2 year Low.
So, I could gain from BOTH the Rise in the Share Price and the Exchange Rate in 1-2 year time.
Have to examine the price trend and the future prospects of BHP first before setting the buying targets.
Also, given that the NZ$, A$ and Sterling Pounds are at a 5-6 year Low, one may consider buying properties therein if their house price falls further - again, to make gain from BOTH the Rise of House Price and Exchange Rate. Also, some parents may wish to send their children to those countries for Higher Education in the near future.
Did I NOT say "Dramatic" and Anythinhg could Happen?
After the Largest Fall in the world yesterday, HK HSI had the Largest Gain today - a stunning 14.35%! The Once "Big Elephant" HSBC flied like a bird - jumping 20% in a day after losing 15% in a day only last Friday!
Just a reminder, back in Aug 98, HSBC was at HK$49.50 ONLY !!
And as at Yesterday, the HSI dropped by 67% from its Height, whereas in 87 CRASH it dropped 52% from its Height and 97 CRASH dropped 61% from its Height.
How much further the current "Once in a Century" Crisis, with NO end in sight, will force the market to fall? (The 73 CRASH fell by 91%)
Back in July 2007, I hinted HSI to fall to at least to SARS Level - 8,000 points, when in fact, I believed it would fall much lower than that - now you know it's around 4,000 points. I did not say this back then because noone would believe me at the time, - and noone would take my Warning seriously. (The same applied to the HSBC price I hinted at HK$80, when I believed it would fall further)
As stated before, if anyone is Brave enough + Energetic enough + Quick enough........, they could make some good profit Today.
But, then again, this's EXACTLY the reason why people losing BIG money - because they've made some good money so Easily in the first place, they've become so Confident and start putting more money in. It is by then the BIG Mistake is made.
Investment, after all, is mostly about LUCK.
(Luck is 60% and anything else is 40%)
And if one has used up their Luck in making Small Gain, they're to suffer Huge Loss eventually!
Remember, this is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL NOT Buy.
Save your Breathe for the Greatest CRASH!
Fate
None Has ALL the Luck ALL the Times
After liaising with my HSBC bank in Britain, I now realise there are some technical difficulties to buy HSBC share in Sterling Pound from the London Stock Exchange - simply because I am now NOT in Britain!
While trying to overcome the obstacles, I now have a Plan B by taking advantage of my Another Circumstance - I am now in Australia, utlising my HSBC AUS Premier A/C.
I now serious consider buying share of an Australian Giant, the World's Largest Mining Firm, BHP.
First, it is always better and especially in the current climax to buy the Biggest - because there are more potentail big players coming on board or even the Governement has to come to rescue if the Biggest struggles or fails.
Second, the A$ is at a 5 1/2 year Low.
So, I could gain from BOTH the Rise in the Share Price and the Exchange Rate in 1-2 year time.
Have to examine the price trend and the future prospects of BHP first before setting the buying targets.
Also, given that the NZ$, A$ and Sterling Pounds are at a 5-6 year Low, one may consider buying properties therein if their house price falls further - again, to make gain from BOTH the Rise of House Price and Exchange Rate. Also, some parents may wish to send their children to those countries for Higher Education in the near future.
Did I NOT say "Dramatic" and Anythinhg could Happen?
After the Largest Fall in the world yesterday, HK HSI had the Largest Gain today - a stunning 14.35%! The Once "Big Elephant" HSBC flied like a bird - jumping 20% in a day after losing 15% in a day only last Friday!
Just a reminder, back in Aug 98, HSBC was at HK$49.50 ONLY !!
And as at Yesterday, the HSI dropped by 67% from its Height, whereas in 87 CRASH it dropped 52% from its Height and 97 CRASH dropped 61% from its Height.
How much further the current "Once in a Century" Crisis, with NO end in sight, will force the market to fall? (The 73 CRASH fell by 91%)
Back in July 2007, I hinted HSI to fall to at least to SARS Level - 8,000 points, when in fact, I believed it would fall much lower than that - now you know it's around 4,000 points. I did not say this back then because noone would believe me at the time, - and noone would take my Warning seriously. (The same applied to the HSBC price I hinted at HK$80, when I believed it would fall further)
As stated before, if anyone is Brave enough + Energetic enough + Quick enough........, they could make some good profit Today.
But, then again, this's EXACTLY the reason why people losing BIG money - because they've made some good money so Easily in the first place, they've become so Confident and start putting more money in. It is by then the BIG Mistake is made.
Investment, after all, is mostly about LUCK.
(Luck is 60% and anything else is 40%)
And if one has used up their Luck in making Small Gain, they're to suffer Huge Loss eventually!
Remember, this is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL NOT Buy.
Save your Breathe for the Greatest CRASH!
Fate
None Has ALL the Luck ALL the Times
Monday, October 27, 2008
What I've been doing
Another Heart Breaking Day.
The Australian Benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell to 4-Year Low.
The HK HSI fell by over 1,600 points or 12.7% to 11,015 - a Drop of about 65% from its Peak.
In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell to a 26-Year Low - Yes, the Lowest since 1982.
There will be more troubles ahead as the world's 2nd largest economy's shares tumbled so badly.
So, what have you been doing to protect your Hard Earned Cash?
For the last few days, I've been receiving many calls/E Mails from my friends in Toronto, New York, Beijing, HK, Sydney etc., asking if it's the Best Time to buy. If so, What, How and Where to Buy.
So, I think I may as well share with you lot here.
1) Currency
I've mentioned in my blog dated 18 Oct, titled "Difference", stating that I am to buy some A$ while waiting for the CRASH in the share markets.
My Instinct at the time was to buy "Below A$1 = HK$5.5."
(AT the time it was A$1 = HK$5.2)
Although I'd a HK$ loan from my bank in HK, I had to fight the Bureaucracy in trying to get the money sent to my bank in Australia in A$ for the last week. And now, A$ drops to HK$ 4.75 - drops by about 8.6%. (www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data) Thanks to the Bureaucracy!
I later visited the website, www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory, confirming during the last 2,000 days (i.e. between 8.5.03 & 27.10.08) there were only 4 days A$ was around $HK4.90 before this week. The Average of these 2000 days is HK$6.076, High is HK$7.624 and Low? Just made today at around HK$4.75!!
I believe the current strength of US$ will NOT last long.
Everyone is soon to wake up and realise US$ worths much less than what it is now, because the US Government just keeps printing money to bail out almost every industry!! A Big Fall is inevitable. (Although there will be a Time Gap - just like when I first warned others about the CRASH back in July 2007)
So I'm to buy more NZ$/A$. Again, using the 1/3 Approach. Putting another 1/3 in when it drops by another 20% and so forth - we're only Humans and we will make Mistakes, so always better to buy in phases.
Better Be Safe than Sorry.
2) Share
I'll only buy one share.
Because I'm a customer of it for the last 23 years, have been keeping an eye on it since early 90's, its leading position in China/HK, Asia and the World, I have received personal apology from its CEOs/Chairperson and it has won numerous awards for its Outstanding Management etc.,
HSBC Holdings
(One of the Largest Banking Group in the World, currently ranked at 5th or 6th)
I've been warning the HK HSI to fall dramatically since July 2007 (NOT 2008), reminding others to start considering to buy ONLY when HSI fell to SARS LEVEL in 2003, that is, at 8,000. But of course, noone was listening to me - especially when the HSI hit the Historical High of 31,638 on 31 Oct 2007!
For the last few days, everyone finally rang/E Mailed me, stating that,
"I wish I had listened to you back then!"
I'd stated in my previous blog how Low I believe the HSI and DJIA would be. dated 12 Oct, titled "How Low Could It Be?" (Using the same principle, S&P/ASX200 should fall to around 1,000 points)
When to buy HSBC : when it drops to around HK$60.
(Today closed at HK$75, although one year High was at HK$152)
How to buy : 1/3 at HK$60, another 1/3 at HK$48, last 1/3 at around HK$38.
Fund Involved : STILL KEEP 50% CASH after buying the above HSBC.
Where to buy : For me, I'll try to buy it from the London Listing, as I mainly have NZ$ and if buy it in HK$, I am to suffer a 35% LOSS due to recent great fall of NZ$. Buying in Sterling Pounds, I am to suffer only about 5% loss on the Cross Rate. Also, buying in Sterling Pound may benefit from the future recovery of UK Economy, making a gain both in share price & exchange rate and to reduce the loss due to a sudden Depreciation of HK$.
3) Property
Although I expect the Australian Property Price to fall further, I suffer Minimum Loss.
Because the monthly interest income I receive from my Lump Sum, which I could have used for a Cash Purchase, has offset most of my monthly mortgage repayment. So, I'm in a way like "Paying a A$200 rent a week" for my Lakefront Brand New Home - the market rent for which should be around A$550-600 a week.
If interest rate AND house price are to drop significantly in USA, HK, Australia, UK etc., one may start to think buying some properties.
4) Cross Rates
If I'm to return to HK tomorrow, I'm to suffer a LOSS of abut 35% as I mainly hold NZ$. But if I continue to stay in Australia, I'm actually Better Off because the Cross Rate between NZ$ and A$ has risen from A$0.86 when we came here from NZ two years ago to now at A$0.89.
So, one should start looking at Cross Rates to ensure how they could be suffering Less Loss, some like my UK friends, they acutally made a Gain of 25-30 %, even thoug Sterling Pounds has dropped to a 5-Year Low against US$!
Noone knows your Full Circumstances better than Yourself, so make a Good Assessment of your Current Financial Situation and make the Next Right Move to Minimise your Potential Huge Loss.
It's Coming - the Greatest CRASH.
I could be Totally Wrong. But if I'm Right, you'll NOT be Alright!
Fate
Investment is about Having Discipline
The Australian Benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell to 4-Year Low.
The HK HSI fell by over 1,600 points or 12.7% to 11,015 - a Drop of about 65% from its Peak.
In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell to a 26-Year Low - Yes, the Lowest since 1982.
There will be more troubles ahead as the world's 2nd largest economy's shares tumbled so badly.
So, what have you been doing to protect your Hard Earned Cash?
For the last few days, I've been receiving many calls/E Mails from my friends in Toronto, New York, Beijing, HK, Sydney etc., asking if it's the Best Time to buy. If so, What, How and Where to Buy.
So, I think I may as well share with you lot here.
1) Currency
I've mentioned in my blog dated 18 Oct, titled "Difference", stating that I am to buy some A$ while waiting for the CRASH in the share markets.
My Instinct at the time was to buy "Below A$1 = HK$5.5."
(AT the time it was A$1 = HK$5.2)
Although I'd a HK$ loan from my bank in HK, I had to fight the Bureaucracy in trying to get the money sent to my bank in Australia in A$ for the last week. And now, A$ drops to HK$ 4.75 - drops by about 8.6%. (www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data) Thanks to the Bureaucracy!
I later visited the website, www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory, confirming during the last 2,000 days (i.e. between 8.5.03 & 27.10.08) there were only 4 days A$ was around $HK4.90 before this week. The Average of these 2000 days is HK$6.076, High is HK$7.624 and Low? Just made today at around HK$4.75!!
I believe the current strength of US$ will NOT last long.
Everyone is soon to wake up and realise US$ worths much less than what it is now, because the US Government just keeps printing money to bail out almost every industry!! A Big Fall is inevitable. (Although there will be a Time Gap - just like when I first warned others about the CRASH back in July 2007)
So I'm to buy more NZ$/A$. Again, using the 1/3 Approach. Putting another 1/3 in when it drops by another 20% and so forth - we're only Humans and we will make Mistakes, so always better to buy in phases.
Better Be Safe than Sorry.
2) Share
I'll only buy one share.
Because I'm a customer of it for the last 23 years, have been keeping an eye on it since early 90's, its leading position in China/HK, Asia and the World, I have received personal apology from its CEOs/Chairperson and it has won numerous awards for its Outstanding Management etc.,
HSBC Holdings
(One of the Largest Banking Group in the World, currently ranked at 5th or 6th)
I've been warning the HK HSI to fall dramatically since July 2007 (NOT 2008), reminding others to start considering to buy ONLY when HSI fell to SARS LEVEL in 2003, that is, at 8,000. But of course, noone was listening to me - especially when the HSI hit the Historical High of 31,638 on 31 Oct 2007!
For the last few days, everyone finally rang/E Mailed me, stating that,
"I wish I had listened to you back then!"
I'd stated in my previous blog how Low I believe the HSI and DJIA would be. dated 12 Oct, titled "How Low Could It Be?" (Using the same principle, S&P/ASX200 should fall to around 1,000 points)
When to buy HSBC : when it drops to around HK$60.
(Today closed at HK$75, although one year High was at HK$152)
How to buy : 1/3 at HK$60, another 1/3 at HK$48, last 1/3 at around HK$38.
Fund Involved : STILL KEEP 50% CASH after buying the above HSBC.
Where to buy : For me, I'll try to buy it from the London Listing, as I mainly have NZ$ and if buy it in HK$, I am to suffer a 35% LOSS due to recent great fall of NZ$. Buying in Sterling Pounds, I am to suffer only about 5% loss on the Cross Rate. Also, buying in Sterling Pound may benefit from the future recovery of UK Economy, making a gain both in share price & exchange rate and to reduce the loss due to a sudden Depreciation of HK$.
3) Property
Although I expect the Australian Property Price to fall further, I suffer Minimum Loss.
Because the monthly interest income I receive from my Lump Sum, which I could have used for a Cash Purchase, has offset most of my monthly mortgage repayment. So, I'm in a way like "Paying a A$200 rent a week" for my Lakefront Brand New Home - the market rent for which should be around A$550-600 a week.
If interest rate AND house price are to drop significantly in USA, HK, Australia, UK etc., one may start to think buying some properties.
4) Cross Rates
If I'm to return to HK tomorrow, I'm to suffer a LOSS of abut 35% as I mainly hold NZ$. But if I continue to stay in Australia, I'm actually Better Off because the Cross Rate between NZ$ and A$ has risen from A$0.86 when we came here from NZ two years ago to now at A$0.89.
So, one should start looking at Cross Rates to ensure how they could be suffering Less Loss, some like my UK friends, they acutally made a Gain of 25-30 %, even thoug Sterling Pounds has dropped to a 5-Year Low against US$!
Noone knows your Full Circumstances better than Yourself, so make a Good Assessment of your Current Financial Situation and make the Next Right Move to Minimise your Potential Huge Loss.
It's Coming - the Greatest CRASH.
I could be Totally Wrong. But if I'm Right, you'll NOT be Alright!
Fate
Investment is about Having Discipline
Sunday, October 26, 2008
WWIII
The World is now at War - the WWIII.
A War with NO identified enemy.
A War with NO end in sight.
A War with the Largest Casualties.
A War looks like almost Everyone is a Loser.
We are all now facing this New War in the Globale Financial Markets.
Everything is Possible.
Everything could be Terrible.
The Emerging Market has now become "Emergency" Market.
They are all in Big Troubles -from Argentina in Latin America, to South Korea in Asia, to South Africa in Africa, to Hungary in Europe, to Ukraine in Old USSR Block etc. and to the once the UNbreakable "BRIC" (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India & China). Not only their share markets are falling like mad, so are most of their currencies.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12481004
Iceland has become "Isolatedland".
The First Country went down in the current Meltdown. In fact, the first Western Developed Nation that needs to be rescued since 1976! There are more falling countries lining up requesting help from IMF.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279
Britain has been "Beaten".
Its Economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter - the first time in 16 years. And its currency dropped by over 5% on Friday - the Biggest one day fall in 37 years and is now at US$1.53, back to the level seen in 2002! And two of its Banking Giants, HSBC & Barclay's dropped by 15% the same day. Its property price is expected to fall by another 16% in 2009 and will not bottom until 2010 - by then it will be 33% from the Peak reached in Mid 2007.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165154?tid=relatedcl
HK has shown its Undisputed Commitment towards the "One Country, Two System".
Its HSI lost over 1,100 points, 8.3% on Friday - falling three times more than its Mainland China counterparts! In fact, HK share market has lost over US$14.6 Trillion in value for the last 9 months, and is now valued at US$8.6 Trillion only! None of the 50 Blue Chips making up the HSI now values more than HK$100 - which was once Incomprehensible!
USA - what can I say?
Massive Unemployment on its way.
Yahoo to cut 10% workforce, so is Goldman Sach. Chrysler has the Biggest Cut - 25% of its workforce. USA is soon to have the 7% then 8% then 9% Unemployment Rate! And the16th Bank collapse happened just last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/26layoffs.html?_r=l&hp&oref=slogin
Australia - three mortgage funds stopped investors from redeeming on Friday. One of which owned by the Richest Man in Australia, whose mining firm's shares once rose by 40% in a month and 300% in a year - thanks to China.
Now, anyone putting A$1 million into any bank has to pay a fee. Still I believe Australia is better place in this current WWIII. Australian Economy is more dependant on China than US. Although China is slowing down with its lowest growth in 5 years, this 9% growth is still amusing - Japan or South Korean could not achieve this rate even in their boom years and the last time USA had this growth rate was about 50 years ago!
Also, there are about 1million Aussies working overseas, mainly in USA and UK. Many of them may have to return Australia due to firms scaling down. Their US$ and UK Sterling now buy 33% and 25% More A$ than 3-month and 1 year ago respectively, the Interest Rate being cut so aggressively and more help from the Federal Government (e.g.1st Home Grant, Stamp Duty Concession), this will make the property much attractive to them, making the adjustment in Australian Property Market more bearable.
Hedges Fund, the once Darling of the Investment World, has now become "Hitted Fund".
Because it is supposed to make big money regardless of the fall.
More than 200 Hedge Funds have gone since the beginning of this year. And is tipped to have another between 500-2500 (from between a total of 8,000-10,000) gone before the end of this year - the share prices in every market are now under Tremendous Downward Pressure.
Just in case you have not noticed, the share markets in USA, UK, Australia is already 40% down from their Peak about a year ago. HK fell more than 62% for the same period!
This is , however, ONLY the Beginning of the Most Disastrous Ending.
We had one of two Developing Countries defaulted on their debt at one time;
We had one or two Big Hedge Funds collapsed at one time;
We had a few Country Currencies being attacked at one time;
We had Big House Price Fall in one or two Countries at one time;
We had one or two Countries in Deep Recession in one time;
We had High Unemployment in one or two Countries at one time etc. etc.
But we have NOT had the above happening ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
How are you to Protect Yourself from this Most Brutal WW?
Next time, let me share with you what I have been doing/will do, giving you some ideas what you can do after assessing your Own Circumstances.
Fate
Make the Most of YOUR Circumstances
A War with NO identified enemy.
A War with NO end in sight.
A War with the Largest Casualties.
A War looks like almost Everyone is a Loser.
We are all now facing this New War in the Globale Financial Markets.
Everything is Possible.
Everything could be Terrible.
The Emerging Market has now become "Emergency" Market.
They are all in Big Troubles -from Argentina in Latin America, to South Korea in Asia, to South Africa in Africa, to Hungary in Europe, to Ukraine in Old USSR Block etc. and to the once the UNbreakable "BRIC" (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India & China). Not only their share markets are falling like mad, so are most of their currencies.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12481004
Iceland has become "Isolatedland".
The First Country went down in the current Meltdown. In fact, the first Western Developed Nation that needs to be rescued since 1976! There are more falling countries lining up requesting help from IMF.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279
Britain has been "Beaten".
Its Economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter - the first time in 16 years. And its currency dropped by over 5% on Friday - the Biggest one day fall in 37 years and is now at US$1.53, back to the level seen in 2002! And two of its Banking Giants, HSBC & Barclay's dropped by 15% the same day. Its property price is expected to fall by another 16% in 2009 and will not bottom until 2010 - by then it will be 33% from the Peak reached in Mid 2007.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165154?tid=relatedcl
HK has shown its Undisputed Commitment towards the "One Country, Two System".
Its HSI lost over 1,100 points, 8.3% on Friday - falling three times more than its Mainland China counterparts! In fact, HK share market has lost over US$14.6 Trillion in value for the last 9 months, and is now valued at US$8.6 Trillion only! None of the 50 Blue Chips making up the HSI now values more than HK$100 - which was once Incomprehensible!
USA - what can I say?
Massive Unemployment on its way.
Yahoo to cut 10% workforce, so is Goldman Sach. Chrysler has the Biggest Cut - 25% of its workforce. USA is soon to have the 7% then 8% then 9% Unemployment Rate! And the16th Bank collapse happened just last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/26layoffs.html?_r=l&hp&oref=slogin
Australia - three mortgage funds stopped investors from redeeming on Friday. One of which owned by the Richest Man in Australia, whose mining firm's shares once rose by 40% in a month and 300% in a year - thanks to China.
Now, anyone putting A$1 million into any bank has to pay a fee. Still I believe Australia is better place in this current WWIII. Australian Economy is more dependant on China than US. Although China is slowing down with its lowest growth in 5 years, this 9% growth is still amusing - Japan or South Korean could not achieve this rate even in their boom years and the last time USA had this growth rate was about 50 years ago!
Also, there are about 1million Aussies working overseas, mainly in USA and UK. Many of them may have to return Australia due to firms scaling down. Their US$ and UK Sterling now buy 33% and 25% More A$ than 3-month and 1 year ago respectively, the Interest Rate being cut so aggressively and more help from the Federal Government (e.g.1st Home Grant, Stamp Duty Concession), this will make the property much attractive to them, making the adjustment in Australian Property Market more bearable.
Hedges Fund, the once Darling of the Investment World, has now become "Hitted Fund".
Because it is supposed to make big money regardless of the fall.
More than 200 Hedge Funds have gone since the beginning of this year. And is tipped to have another between 500-2500 (from between a total of 8,000-10,000) gone before the end of this year - the share prices in every market are now under Tremendous Downward Pressure.
Just in case you have not noticed, the share markets in USA, UK, Australia is already 40% down from their Peak about a year ago. HK fell more than 62% for the same period!
This is , however, ONLY the Beginning of the Most Disastrous Ending.
We had one of two Developing Countries defaulted on their debt at one time;
We had one or two Big Hedge Funds collapsed at one time;
We had a few Country Currencies being attacked at one time;
We had Big House Price Fall in one or two Countries at one time;
We had one or two Countries in Deep Recession in one time;
We had High Unemployment in one or two Countries at one time etc. etc.
But we have NOT had the above happening ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
How are you to Protect Yourself from this Most Brutal WW?
Next time, let me share with you what I have been doing/will do, giving you some ideas what you can do after assessing your Own Circumstances.
Fate
Make the Most of YOUR Circumstances
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Worst is NOT Over
Wall ST fell by 5.69% overnight. And the reason?
Do we actually need any reason in the current nervous climate?
Just a sudden change of Sentiment could push down the Wall St by another 5%, 6% or even 10%.
Alright, this time they said it is the concerns over Corporate Profitability.
Is this News?
Almost a year ago, all these big firms (the big banks in particular) started writing off Historical level of Bad Debts, inviting Sovereign Funds, Foreign Investors etc. to pull in more Capitals.
And yet, quarter after quarter, there are still massive write off - contrary to the CEOs' claim of "The Worst is Over!"
E.g. Citi Group has a straight 4 Quarter Results in Red!
Not so long ago, RBS was fighting with Barclay's for the control of the Netherland Bank, ABN AMRO. And then they both started to fight for their own survival. Barclay's had to call in overseas investors to stay afloat and RBS?
The British Government has to rush in and take control!
And then the Netherland Giant, ING.
It bought the collapsed Baring's in Britain back in mid 90's and until about a month ago, was a potential candidate to bail out the falling Fortis. And now?
It has just been bailed out by the Netherland Government!
And the Once Reputable Red Chip (i.e. a Blue Chip with Strong Chinese Government Connection) in HK has just reported a Massive Loss on One Item alone - Hedging on A$, resulting in Giantic Loss of HK$15 Billion (i.e. about A$3 Billion) and, that is, 50% of the Firm's Market Value. Its share dropped by 55% in one day and about 80% in two days!
So far, vast majority of "Mum & Dad" Investors are drowned in this "Financial Tsunami". Some Institutional Investors still holding on to some shares, hoping that the Worst is over and firms soon start to be making profits and paying good dividends again. Now, they realise this Hope remains a Hope only and will not come True in the near future and are increasingly under pressure to cash in their holdings.
The effects of this "Financial Tsunami" are gradually reflecting in the broader economy (e.g. Higher Unemployment), though as the Financial Secretary in HK recently stated in the public,
"We have NOT seen the Worst yet."
And the CEO of the HSBC has also claimed after laying off thousands of jobs within HSBC,
"I could not promise there will not be any more job cuts."
And the Governor for the Bank of England just stated,
"Britain is in Recession."
And the already confirmed in Recession NZ, just cut its official rate by 1% to 6.5% this morning.
Australia?
Well, we are of course better placed than US. Our official rate is at 6% and theirs at 1.5%
If we are to continue cutting rate by 1% at a time, we still have 6 times to go before reaching 0.
And US has only 1 1/2 time - NO more silver bullets?
There are some Economists already worrying US is to have a Prolong Recession like the Japan in the 90s.
And now Iceland is down, Pakistan in also in the line to seek IMF's help, South Korea is defending its currency and Hungary has put up its interest rate by 3% to also defend its currency, fencing off the Hungary Speculators!
And More and More Hedge Funds are collapsing in everywhere.
Not to mention the full extent of Damage caused by the collapsed Lehmans has yet to be fully comprehended. (The US 64 Trillion CDS market)
The Worst is NOT over - you'll be if you still have NOT changed your Mentality and Strategy!
Fate
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Do we actually need any reason in the current nervous climate?
Just a sudden change of Sentiment could push down the Wall St by another 5%, 6% or even 10%.
Alright, this time they said it is the concerns over Corporate Profitability.
Is this News?
Almost a year ago, all these big firms (the big banks in particular) started writing off Historical level of Bad Debts, inviting Sovereign Funds, Foreign Investors etc. to pull in more Capitals.
And yet, quarter after quarter, there are still massive write off - contrary to the CEOs' claim of "The Worst is Over!"
E.g. Citi Group has a straight 4 Quarter Results in Red!
Not so long ago, RBS was fighting with Barclay's for the control of the Netherland Bank, ABN AMRO. And then they both started to fight for their own survival. Barclay's had to call in overseas investors to stay afloat and RBS?
The British Government has to rush in and take control!
And then the Netherland Giant, ING.
It bought the collapsed Baring's in Britain back in mid 90's and until about a month ago, was a potential candidate to bail out the falling Fortis. And now?
It has just been bailed out by the Netherland Government!
And the Once Reputable Red Chip (i.e. a Blue Chip with Strong Chinese Government Connection) in HK has just reported a Massive Loss on One Item alone - Hedging on A$, resulting in Giantic Loss of HK$15 Billion (i.e. about A$3 Billion) and, that is, 50% of the Firm's Market Value. Its share dropped by 55% in one day and about 80% in two days!
So far, vast majority of "Mum & Dad" Investors are drowned in this "Financial Tsunami". Some Institutional Investors still holding on to some shares, hoping that the Worst is over and firms soon start to be making profits and paying good dividends again. Now, they realise this Hope remains a Hope only and will not come True in the near future and are increasingly under pressure to cash in their holdings.
The effects of this "Financial Tsunami" are gradually reflecting in the broader economy (e.g. Higher Unemployment), though as the Financial Secretary in HK recently stated in the public,
"We have NOT seen the Worst yet."
And the CEO of the HSBC has also claimed after laying off thousands of jobs within HSBC,
"I could not promise there will not be any more job cuts."
And the Governor for the Bank of England just stated,
"Britain is in Recession."
And the already confirmed in Recession NZ, just cut its official rate by 1% to 6.5% this morning.
Australia?
Well, we are of course better placed than US. Our official rate is at 6% and theirs at 1.5%
If we are to continue cutting rate by 1% at a time, we still have 6 times to go before reaching 0.
And US has only 1 1/2 time - NO more silver bullets?
There are some Economists already worrying US is to have a Prolong Recession like the Japan in the 90s.
And now Iceland is down, Pakistan in also in the line to seek IMF's help, South Korea is defending its currency and Hungary has put up its interest rate by 3% to also defend its currency, fencing off the Hungary Speculators!
And More and More Hedge Funds are collapsing in everywhere.
Not to mention the full extent of Damage caused by the collapsed Lehmans has yet to be fully comprehended. (The US 64 Trillion CDS market)
The Worst is NOT over - you'll be if you still have NOT changed your Mentality and Strategy!
Fate
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Where is the Money gone?
There are a lot of people saying the following recently about the ever dropping share markets,
"Oh.....I wish I had not bought it then!"
"Gosh! What's going on? How low could it be?"
"I wish I had the money to buy some shares now - look at the Bargains!"
The Question is,
Where is their Money gone?
Either Lost it or Tied to some may never bounced back shares.
The Reason is?
These people have made the Wrong Comparison, so
When the share market dropped by 15%, 50% of Investors thought it was low, then rushed to buy.
The market continued to drop by another 15%, another 30% Investors thought it was low, so rushed to buy.
But the share dropped by further 10% , another 10% Investors thought it was low and rushed to buy it.
90% Investors thought it was low because they were comparing with,
"The Lowest for the last 52 weeks";
"The Lowest for the last 3 Years"; or
"The Lowest for the last 5 years"
They forgot the current Crisis is, according to many commentators, at least the Worst in 20 years.
Some say (e.g. the British Treasurer) the Worst since WWII (i.e. in 40 years) .
And a few (e.g. Federal Reserve Chairperson, Bernanke) have stressed this is "The Worst since the Great Depression 1929"
So, the Patient Investors are still waiting, with their Cash ready, in the best position to capture this "Once in a Century" (according to the last Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan) Opportunity.
Because these 10% are convinced the Biggest Fall has yet to come.
Like Life itself, Investment is also about "Having Self Discipline" - Don't Buy because Others are Buying. And "Patience" is a Must Have Quality.
Fate
Be Patient. Be A Winner
"Oh.....I wish I had not bought it then!"
"Gosh! What's going on? How low could it be?"
"I wish I had the money to buy some shares now - look at the Bargains!"
The Question is,
Where is their Money gone?
Either Lost it or Tied to some may never bounced back shares.
The Reason is?
These people have made the Wrong Comparison, so
When the share market dropped by 15%, 50% of Investors thought it was low, then rushed to buy.
The market continued to drop by another 15%, another 30% Investors thought it was low, so rushed to buy.
But the share dropped by further 10% , another 10% Investors thought it was low and rushed to buy it.
90% Investors thought it was low because they were comparing with,
"The Lowest for the last 52 weeks";
"The Lowest for the last 3 Years"; or
"The Lowest for the last 5 years"
They forgot the current Crisis is, according to many commentators, at least the Worst in 20 years.
Some say (e.g. the British Treasurer) the Worst since WWII (i.e. in 40 years) .
And a few (e.g. Federal Reserve Chairperson, Bernanke) have stressed this is "The Worst since the Great Depression 1929"
So, the Patient Investors are still waiting, with their Cash ready, in the best position to capture this "Once in a Century" (according to the last Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan) Opportunity.
Because these 10% are convinced the Biggest Fall has yet to come.
Like Life itself, Investment is also about "Having Self Discipline" - Don't Buy because Others are Buying. And "Patience" is a Must Have Quality.
Fate
Be Patient. Be A Winner
Monday, October 20, 2008
Sell, Sell, Sell
Not only I disagree with Warren Buffett's claim, "It's time to Buy now", but I also believe it is the time to SELL - Sell everytime when the share market rebounds.
Wall ST climbed 4.67% overnight.
So, we 're to see the Australian Market and the HK Market are to surge too later today.
And you should be Selling to cut loss.
Remember the Golden Two Rules of Warren Buffett? (Which I totally Agree)
Rule 1 : Keep your Capital.
Rule 2?
Remember Rule 1!
But, this does NOT change the fact that the Biggest CRASH is coming.
One trader has closely monitored the Wall ST, studying the Volatility Index (DJIA's movement over 1% a day) confirming the 13-Trading Day (i.e. between 1-17 Oct 2008) Period is the 2nd Most Violate Period on record.
And the MOST Volatile Period on record?
Yes, that happened during the 1929 Great Depression.
This trader stated that he has never seen anything like this in his Life before and probably will not see it again.
The Latest Noble Prize Winner in Economics stressing that,
"US is already in Serious Recession."
The Professor claims the Unemployment Rate will climb up to 7%, 8%.
In HK, the 62-year-old, Once The Market Leader, a Reputable Electrical Store collapsed a few days ago, leaving 260+ staff unemployed. In fact, the HK Chamber of Commerce recently claimed 25% of the Small & Medium Sized Firm will collapse.
In Australia, I saw a TV report on Sunday interviewing two economists. They predicted the Unemployment Rate in Australia is to rise to 5% or 6%, that is another 100,000 or 200,000 jobs gone, by the end of 2009.
One thing is sure though.
Three months ago, when the Petrol Price was at US$145 & the Mortgage Rate was at its Recent Highest, the Australians seemed to be copying better than now when the Petrol Price is about US$75 & the Mortgage Rate has been cut over 1% - why?
Because Australians now realise the chance of losing their jobs are very high - so they're spending in a much cautious way, cutting back on non-essential items.
Just wait until the US Job Market Data release - and see how the market responds.
Fate
Preparing Our Best for the Worst
Wall ST climbed 4.67% overnight.
So, we 're to see the Australian Market and the HK Market are to surge too later today.
And you should be Selling to cut loss.
Remember the Golden Two Rules of Warren Buffett? (Which I totally Agree)
Rule 1 : Keep your Capital.
Rule 2?
Remember Rule 1!
But, this does NOT change the fact that the Biggest CRASH is coming.
One trader has closely monitored the Wall ST, studying the Volatility Index (DJIA's movement over 1% a day) confirming the 13-Trading Day (i.e. between 1-17 Oct 2008) Period is the 2nd Most Violate Period on record.
And the MOST Volatile Period on record?
Yes, that happened during the 1929 Great Depression.
This trader stated that he has never seen anything like this in his Life before and probably will not see it again.
The Latest Noble Prize Winner in Economics stressing that,
"US is already in Serious Recession."
The Professor claims the Unemployment Rate will climb up to 7%, 8%.
In HK, the 62-year-old, Once The Market Leader, a Reputable Electrical Store collapsed a few days ago, leaving 260+ staff unemployed. In fact, the HK Chamber of Commerce recently claimed 25% of the Small & Medium Sized Firm will collapse.
In Australia, I saw a TV report on Sunday interviewing two economists. They predicted the Unemployment Rate in Australia is to rise to 5% or 6%, that is another 100,000 or 200,000 jobs gone, by the end of 2009.
One thing is sure though.
Three months ago, when the Petrol Price was at US$145 & the Mortgage Rate was at its Recent Highest, the Australians seemed to be copying better than now when the Petrol Price is about US$75 & the Mortgage Rate has been cut over 1% - why?
Because Australians now realise the chance of losing their jobs are very high - so they're spending in a much cautious way, cutting back on non-essential items.
Just wait until the US Job Market Data release - and see how the market responds.
Fate
Preparing Our Best for the Worst
Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett (Yes, the Richest Man on this planet) has recently openly saying he has started buying US shares with His Own Money (i.e. not money from his flagship, Berkshire Hathaway) and will buy more, reminding others this is a good time to buy.
A commentator has then checked Warren Buffett's previous records in urging the public to buy shares. The first time Warren did it was in 1974 - the US share market hit the bottom a month after his remarks. And the last time Warren did it was in 1979 - the share market hit the bottom 8 months after his remarks.
Although the Past does NOT necessary dictate the Present or the Future, the above do re-confirm one thing,
There is a Time Gap between "What Should Happen" and "When it Actually Happens".
So, the worst is soon to come - within a month the soonest?
Or eight months from now the latest?
It's interesting to see the result of a survey, asking if people believe in what Warren Buffett said.
65% believe and 35% have doubts - because they believe Warren only says something in His Own Interests.
I'm one of those 35%, I do not take those have a Conflict of Interests Seriously and I therefore do NOT believe this is the Best Time to Buy - the WORST has yet to come.
After all, Warren has recently made a Major Mistake in selling the PetroChina shares too soon - losing at least another 100% rise profit!
Fate
Trust Your Own Instinct
A commentator has then checked Warren Buffett's previous records in urging the public to buy shares. The first time Warren did it was in 1974 - the US share market hit the bottom a month after his remarks. And the last time Warren did it was in 1979 - the share market hit the bottom 8 months after his remarks.
Although the Past does NOT necessary dictate the Present or the Future, the above do re-confirm one thing,
There is a Time Gap between "What Should Happen" and "When it Actually Happens".
So, the worst is soon to come - within a month the soonest?
Or eight months from now the latest?
It's interesting to see the result of a survey, asking if people believe in what Warren Buffett said.
65% believe and 35% have doubts - because they believe Warren only says something in His Own Interests.
I'm one of those 35%, I do not take those have a Conflict of Interests Seriously and I therefore do NOT believe this is the Best Time to Buy - the WORST has yet to come.
After all, Warren has recently made a Major Mistake in selling the PetroChina shares too soon - losing at least another 100% rise profit!
Fate
Trust Your Own Instinct
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Difference
Forgot to mention a major difference between US & Australia.
Australia recently announced it Guarantees ALL money deposited at Banks for 3 years.
Whereas, US (as far as I am aware of) Guarantee only US$100,000 deposited at banks - though there has been suggestion of doubling that to US$200,000.
Just noticed there are two comments in my post published on 14 Oct, titled "Heart Attack".
1) 8 up - I will buy A$ NOW (i.e. below HK$5.5).
But, remember, it's not only about "What you buy", but also "How to buy" is also important.
Make sure you're buying in phases - because we're only Humans and we therefore do make Mistakes.
I will sell A$ after gaining a 5% profit. (This time I may wait until it reaches HK$6 - around 10%)
The difference of Buying Currency and Shares is,
For the former, I'm doing it while waiting for the CRASH in stock market, the profit is mainly for upgrading to Business Class, or for a Longer Overseas holiday.
For the latter, it's for BIG Profit, to finance the Retirement Plan for my boys - yes, for my children - I've already retired in a sense.
2) carol - The US$ has actually been on the decline for the last 5-6 years.
It, however, rebounds everytime when the global finance was nervous recently - people are prepared to accept 0.3% interest rate from the US 1-month Treasury Bill for SAFETY.
I am very confident US$ is soon to resume its fall again.
Governments can NOT just keep printing money and buying every firms - US Government is already the Biggest Mortgage Provider in US, the Biggest Insurer in US, the Biggest Single Shareholder in 9 Major US Banks, and the Federal Budget Deficit is already the Biggest on record!!
There is always a Time Gap between,
"What is predicted to Happen" and "When it actually happens".
In Japan, some people seen the CRASH coming in 86, but it did not happen until 89!
I've been warning investors since July 2007, expecting the CRASH is soon to happen.
It is only until recently my friends started waking up and worrying the Big One could be coming.
The Only Difference is,
This time is the Biggest CRASH.
Be Prepared.
Fate
Two Steps Ahead makes ALL the Difference
Australia recently announced it Guarantees ALL money deposited at Banks for 3 years.
Whereas, US (as far as I am aware of) Guarantee only US$100,000 deposited at banks - though there has been suggestion of doubling that to US$200,000.
Just noticed there are two comments in my post published on 14 Oct, titled "Heart Attack".
1) 8 up - I will buy A$ NOW (i.e. below HK$5.5).
But, remember, it's not only about "What you buy", but also "How to buy" is also important.
Make sure you're buying in phases - because we're only Humans and we therefore do make Mistakes.
I will sell A$ after gaining a 5% profit. (This time I may wait until it reaches HK$6 - around 10%)
The difference of Buying Currency and Shares is,
For the former, I'm doing it while waiting for the CRASH in stock market, the profit is mainly for upgrading to Business Class, or for a Longer Overseas holiday.
For the latter, it's for BIG Profit, to finance the Retirement Plan for my boys - yes, for my children - I've already retired in a sense.
2) carol - The US$ has actually been on the decline for the last 5-6 years.
It, however, rebounds everytime when the global finance was nervous recently - people are prepared to accept 0.3% interest rate from the US 1-month Treasury Bill for SAFETY.
I am very confident US$ is soon to resume its fall again.
Governments can NOT just keep printing money and buying every firms - US Government is already the Biggest Mortgage Provider in US, the Biggest Insurer in US, the Biggest Single Shareholder in 9 Major US Banks, and the Federal Budget Deficit is already the Biggest on record!!
There is always a Time Gap between,
"What is predicted to Happen" and "When it actually happens".
In Japan, some people seen the CRASH coming in 86, but it did not happen until 89!
I've been warning investors since July 2007, expecting the CRASH is soon to happen.
It is only until recently my friends started waking up and worrying the Big One could be coming.
The Only Difference is,
This time is the Biggest CRASH.
Be Prepared.
Fate
Two Steps Ahead makes ALL the Difference
Friday, October 17, 2008
Two Countries, Two Circumstances
Let's compare US & Australia.
In US, it has launched a US$700 Billion Rescue Package.
In Australia, we have a A$10 Billion Stimulus Plan.
The amount of money reflecting the Seriousness of the Problem.
And reflect the Degree of Panic.
Also, US Government has to buy bank shares to stabilise the Share Market as the mean to stabilise the Economy. Whereas our Australian Government is trying to put money into everyone's pocket, aiming to encourage people to spend.
After the recent turmoil, the World Economic Forum has assessed "How Safe the Banking System" in 134 countries. It has ranked US's at 40th, UK's at 44th, HK's at 11th and Australia's?
At 4th!
In US, even though the Federal Reserve has cut rate dramatically since Sept 2007, the mortgage rate did not fall much as it is linked to the UK's Inter Bank Rate. Whereeas in Australia, when the Reserve Bank cut the rate by 1%, the mortgage rate dropped by about 0.8% and tonight another surprise, ANZ bank cut another 0.25% in its mortgage rate.
In US, the house price has dropped about 15-18% from its height at 2006 and is expected to fall by another 10-15%, whereas in Australia I personally felt that the price has dropped about 10% from a year ago.
With the Australian Government's recent Stimulus Plan and the recent 1% interest rate cut (and more is expected), the auction I attended earlier today had a better clearance rate.
To conclude, I do feel Australia is much much better placed than US - let's do NOT forget Australia is closer to the Rising Super Power, China than US - "The Eye of Storm".
Even though China is slowing down but is still expected to grow at 9% a year, whereas US is expected to have ZERO growth if not Negative for the coming quarter, confirming it's in Recession.
Cheers
Fate
Think Globally, Gain Locally
In US, it has launched a US$700 Billion Rescue Package.
In Australia, we have a A$10 Billion Stimulus Plan.
The amount of money reflecting the Seriousness of the Problem.
And reflect the Degree of Panic.
Also, US Government has to buy bank shares to stabilise the Share Market as the mean to stabilise the Economy. Whereas our Australian Government is trying to put money into everyone's pocket, aiming to encourage people to spend.
After the recent turmoil, the World Economic Forum has assessed "How Safe the Banking System" in 134 countries. It has ranked US's at 40th, UK's at 44th, HK's at 11th and Australia's?
At 4th!
In US, even though the Federal Reserve has cut rate dramatically since Sept 2007, the mortgage rate did not fall much as it is linked to the UK's Inter Bank Rate. Whereeas in Australia, when the Reserve Bank cut the rate by 1%, the mortgage rate dropped by about 0.8% and tonight another surprise, ANZ bank cut another 0.25% in its mortgage rate.
In US, the house price has dropped about 15-18% from its height at 2006 and is expected to fall by another 10-15%, whereas in Australia I personally felt that the price has dropped about 10% from a year ago.
With the Australian Government's recent Stimulus Plan and the recent 1% interest rate cut (and more is expected), the auction I attended earlier today had a better clearance rate.
To conclude, I do feel Australia is much much better placed than US - let's do NOT forget Australia is closer to the Rising Super Power, China than US - "The Eye of Storm".
Even though China is slowing down but is still expected to grow at 9% a year, whereas US is expected to have ZERO growth if not Negative for the coming quarter, confirming it's in Recession.
Cheers
Fate
Think Globally, Gain Locally
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Recession - any doubt?
Did I not tell you to Sell everytime the market Rebounds?
Another round of Panic - Wall St fell over 733 points overnight, that is, 7.87%, causing worldwide markets to fall - fall badly Again!
The US Economy is getting worse and worse, just hear what they have said.
Bill Gates, the World's Richest Man until this year : The US Unemployment Rate to rise to 9% (Currently at 6.1%)
Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairperson : Not to make the errors made in the Great Depression
(= formally for the 1st time acknowledged openly the current crisis is as Big as the 30's )
Chairperson of San Fransisco Reserve Bank : We are now in Recession.
And, the Mortgage Default (i.e. People could NOT pay their mortgage and have their homes re-possessed by banks) has risen from 3.5%, 4.5% to now 5% - all time high. And in some areas like California and Nevada, it is 8%.
There are currently about 12 Million homes in US that are having "Negative Equity" and the homeowners could walk away from their homes anytime from now.
This is a Crisis that could put back your Retirement Plan for at least 5 years if not 10.
If the Wall St is to fall by another 5% or More tonight, we could be in for the Big Fall.
Fate
Failing to Act is Waiting to Fail
Another round of Panic - Wall St fell over 733 points overnight, that is, 7.87%, causing worldwide markets to fall - fall badly Again!
The US Economy is getting worse and worse, just hear what they have said.
Bill Gates, the World's Richest Man until this year : The US Unemployment Rate to rise to 9% (Currently at 6.1%)
Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairperson : Not to make the errors made in the Great Depression
(= formally for the 1st time acknowledged openly the current crisis is as Big as the 30's )
Chairperson of San Fransisco Reserve Bank : We are now in Recession.
And, the Mortgage Default (i.e. People could NOT pay their mortgage and have their homes re-possessed by banks) has risen from 3.5%, 4.5% to now 5% - all time high. And in some areas like California and Nevada, it is 8%.
There are currently about 12 Million homes in US that are having "Negative Equity" and the homeowners could walk away from their homes anytime from now.
This is a Crisis that could put back your Retirement Plan for at least 5 years if not 10.
If the Wall St is to fall by another 5% or More tonight, we could be in for the Big Fall.
Fate
Failing to Act is Waiting to Fail
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Heart Attack
For many investors, it must have been a very tough year so far - many many sleepless nights.
And in particular, for the last 2 weeks, many have to be in extreme good health to survive all these Record Breaking Events, witnessing History being made, made Again and Again - Everywhere, Everyday and NOT having a Heart Attack!
Wall St had the Biggest One Day Gain in points overnight, 936 Points.
Japan's Nikkei had the Biggest One Day Percentage Gain, 14.2%
US Government, following UK's lead, is to buy stakes in banks.
But, Australian has taken a different approach.
Earlier today, the Australian PM revealed his A$10 Billion Economy Stimulant Plan.
Rather than directly buying bank shares, he is to give every eligible child a one-off cash payment of A$1,000, every single pensioner a lump sum cash payment of A$1,400, every first home buyer a cash grant of A$14,000 to buy their first house etc. as a Christmas Present!
But still, I am afraid nothing will NOT stop the Unstoppable from happening -The Biggest CRASH.
The Dramatic up & down in the share markets have also presented Many Great Money Making Opportunities :
In one day, GM fell by 31%, the following day rose by 30%;
Morgan Stanley almost doubled (from US$9.xx to US$18.xx) in a day;
In HK, Property shares rose by 10-20%.
But only for those are :
the Bravest (NOT afraid of Losing Everything)
+
Most Energetic (Non stop watching markets for 18 hours +)
+
Very Decisive (could make Buy/Sell decision within seconds)
+
Cash Rich (money NOT tied up with "Once Thought Bargain Shares)
+
LUCK, LOTS OF LUCK
With the ALL of the above, you could then make Millions in just 2 days.
But for me, this is NOT my type of Investment.
So, I did other things while waiting for the CRASH.
I've shifted my attention to the Currency Market - the A$.
If C$ could be at HK$6.8, I do NOT see A$ will stay below HK$5.5. for long - by the "Rules of Relativity" and Canada is closer to the "Eye of the Storm" - USA.
In fact, I've been advising some of my friends to buy A$ last week.
I'd applied a loan from HSBC HK on 8 Oct. *(PLEASE SEE BELOW)
But because of the application took time, I'd missed the opportunity to buy A$ at HK$5.00
Still, I consider A$ below HK$5.5 is a Good Buy and I will buy once I've my money.
Again, using the Phase Buying Rule - 1/3 at a time.
Remember to SELL your shares everytime there is a Rebound.
And I'm now seriously considering selling my Australian House to further Reduce my Risk.
Cheers
Fate
Proper Planning Prevent Persistent Pain
* DO NOT TAKE A LOAN LIKE ME IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE THIS BEFORE. I'VE DONE THIS A FEW TIMES BECAUSE I SEE THE DEPRECIATION OF HK$ AS A REAL RISK, SO I REDUCE MY HK$ HOLDING WHENEVER I COULD. BY TAKING A HK$ LOAN, I COULD HAVE A LUMP SUM RIGHT AWAY TO BUY NZ$/A$ EARNING HIGH INTEREST AND REPAYING WITH MY MONTHLY HK$ INCOME.
And in particular, for the last 2 weeks, many have to be in extreme good health to survive all these Record Breaking Events, witnessing History being made, made Again and Again - Everywhere, Everyday and NOT having a Heart Attack!
Wall St had the Biggest One Day Gain in points overnight, 936 Points.
Japan's Nikkei had the Biggest One Day Percentage Gain, 14.2%
US Government, following UK's lead, is to buy stakes in banks.
But, Australian has taken a different approach.
Earlier today, the Australian PM revealed his A$10 Billion Economy Stimulant Plan.
Rather than directly buying bank shares, he is to give every eligible child a one-off cash payment of A$1,000, every single pensioner a lump sum cash payment of A$1,400, every first home buyer a cash grant of A$14,000 to buy their first house etc. as a Christmas Present!
But still, I am afraid nothing will NOT stop the Unstoppable from happening -The Biggest CRASH.
The Dramatic up & down in the share markets have also presented Many Great Money Making Opportunities :
In one day, GM fell by 31%, the following day rose by 30%;
Morgan Stanley almost doubled (from US$9.xx to US$18.xx) in a day;
In HK, Property shares rose by 10-20%.
But only for those are :
the Bravest (NOT afraid of Losing Everything)
+
Most Energetic (Non stop watching markets for 18 hours +)
+
Very Decisive (could make Buy/Sell decision within seconds)
+
Cash Rich (money NOT tied up with "Once Thought Bargain Shares)
+
LUCK, LOTS OF LUCK
With the ALL of the above, you could then make Millions in just 2 days.
But for me, this is NOT my type of Investment.
So, I did other things while waiting for the CRASH.
I've shifted my attention to the Currency Market - the A$.
If C$ could be at HK$6.8, I do NOT see A$ will stay below HK$5.5. for long - by the "Rules of Relativity" and Canada is closer to the "Eye of the Storm" - USA.
In fact, I've been advising some of my friends to buy A$ last week.
I'd applied a loan from HSBC HK on 8 Oct. *(PLEASE SEE BELOW)
But because of the application took time, I'd missed the opportunity to buy A$ at HK$5.00
Still, I consider A$ below HK$5.5 is a Good Buy and I will buy once I've my money.
Again, using the Phase Buying Rule - 1/3 at a time.
Remember to SELL your shares everytime there is a Rebound.
And I'm now seriously considering selling my Australian House to further Reduce my Risk.
Cheers
Fate
Proper Planning Prevent Persistent Pain
* DO NOT TAKE A LOAN LIKE ME IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE THIS BEFORE. I'VE DONE THIS A FEW TIMES BECAUSE I SEE THE DEPRECIATION OF HK$ AS A REAL RISK, SO I REDUCE MY HK$ HOLDING WHENEVER I COULD. BY TAKING A HK$ LOAN, I COULD HAVE A LUMP SUM RIGHT AWAY TO BUY NZ$/A$ EARNING HIGH INTEREST AND REPAYING WITH MY MONTHLY HK$ INCOME.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Sell NOW
Yet another Dramatic Day.
First, the Australian Market rebounded by 5.6%, after the Prime Minister appearing on national TV the night before, assuring ALL bank deposits will be guaranteed for 3 years. (For a moment , I thought we were in WWII!)
Then, HK had a Massive Rise of over 10%!
Followed by the European major markets rose by over 5% after Rescue Packages announced by the UK, Germany, Spain, Swiss..... and 3 European Banks' strong stance.
(And days before the G7, G20 etc. Joint Declarations to use whatever means to protect the financial system)
But, all these does not change one thing,
The CRASH is coming.
What have been done by all these Governments & Central Banks only trying to achieve one thing,
Buy More Time - hoping the Crisis will go away.
The Crisis will NOT go away.
And they could only buy a week time - the most.
Of course, there will be Rebounds. Strong Rebounds.
But, let's do Not forget some Facts,
In US, more people are having their telephone/Internet disconnected(AT & T CEO stated it this Jan) and now many are cutting back on electricity - using candles at home;
In US, more and more businesses are closing down as they could not get loan/cheaper loan to just carry on day-to-day operations;
In US, about 1 million home being re-possessed every month and there are a total of about 17 million homes currently unoccupied (= 3 times of ALL homes in Australia);
Then, look at the following Possible scenarios,
Funds have to face Massive Redemption as investors lose faith?
It is now retail shares, car manufacturer shares etc. being dumped at - how much more money does any government have left to buy these shares like they did for banking shares?
Pre-programmed Computer Sale Orders triggered off the CRASH?
An assassination of President Hopeful, Obama?
The Only Strategy for those having Cash - WAIT.
Do NOT rush to buy - just look at the price of Morgan Stanley.
The Chinese State Investment bought at US$50 last Dec thought they got a Bargain.
The Japanese Giant Bank bought at US$30 in this Sept thought they got a Bargain.
But, Morgan Stanley dropped to less than US$10 last Friday!
Same to Goldman Sach.
After Warren Buffett had bought it, its price dropped by another (over) 35% last week.
We saw the most volatile week in Wall ST 112-year history AND the week suffering the Most Loss last week. In theory, 20% drop within a year means the market has entered "Bear" - it happened WITHIN ONE WEEK , most if not all major markets dropped more than 20% last week!
The Only Tragedy for those having 30% Loss - Cut Loss.
Sell everytime when there is a Rebound.
Let's do the maths here.
Assuming you bought the share at $100, now only at $70 = a loss of 30%.
Sell now, keep $70.
The share in my view is to drop by at least 50%, that is, $35.
Now, use your $70 to buy back the same share.
Instead of having 1 share, you now have 2 shares.
Remember, investing is NOT necessary about,
"How Much you have spent in buying the shares"
But, could be more about,
"How MANY shares one owns at the end of the day."
(i.e. MORE shares with the SAME amount of money)
Cheers
Fate
Change your Thinking = Change Your Fate
First, the Australian Market rebounded by 5.6%, after the Prime Minister appearing on national TV the night before, assuring ALL bank deposits will be guaranteed for 3 years. (For a moment , I thought we were in WWII!)
Then, HK had a Massive Rise of over 10%!
Followed by the European major markets rose by over 5% after Rescue Packages announced by the UK, Germany, Spain, Swiss..... and 3 European Banks' strong stance.
(And days before the G7, G20 etc. Joint Declarations to use whatever means to protect the financial system)
But, all these does not change one thing,
The CRASH is coming.
What have been done by all these Governments & Central Banks only trying to achieve one thing,
Buy More Time - hoping the Crisis will go away.
The Crisis will NOT go away.
And they could only buy a week time - the most.
Of course, there will be Rebounds. Strong Rebounds.
But, let's do Not forget some Facts,
In US, more people are having their telephone/Internet disconnected(AT & T CEO stated it this Jan) and now many are cutting back on electricity - using candles at home;
In US, more and more businesses are closing down as they could not get loan/cheaper loan to just carry on day-to-day operations;
In US, about 1 million home being re-possessed every month and there are a total of about 17 million homes currently unoccupied (= 3 times of ALL homes in Australia);
Then, look at the following Possible scenarios,
Funds have to face Massive Redemption as investors lose faith?
It is now retail shares, car manufacturer shares etc. being dumped at - how much more money does any government have left to buy these shares like they did for banking shares?
Pre-programmed Computer Sale Orders triggered off the CRASH?
An assassination of President Hopeful, Obama?
The Only Strategy for those having Cash - WAIT.
Do NOT rush to buy - just look at the price of Morgan Stanley.
The Chinese State Investment bought at US$50 last Dec thought they got a Bargain.
The Japanese Giant Bank bought at US$30 in this Sept thought they got a Bargain.
But, Morgan Stanley dropped to less than US$10 last Friday!
Same to Goldman Sach.
After Warren Buffett had bought it, its price dropped by another (over) 35% last week.
We saw the most volatile week in Wall ST 112-year history AND the week suffering the Most Loss last week. In theory, 20% drop within a year means the market has entered "Bear" - it happened WITHIN ONE WEEK , most if not all major markets dropped more than 20% last week!
The Only Tragedy for those having 30% Loss - Cut Loss.
Sell everytime when there is a Rebound.
Let's do the maths here.
Assuming you bought the share at $100, now only at $70 = a loss of 30%.
Sell now, keep $70.
The share in my view is to drop by at least 50%, that is, $35.
Now, use your $70 to buy back the same share.
Instead of having 1 share, you now have 2 shares.
Remember, investing is NOT necessary about,
"How Much you have spent in buying the shares"
But, could be more about,
"How MANY shares one owns at the end of the day."
(i.e. MORE shares with the SAME amount of money)
Cheers
Fate
Change your Thinking = Change Your Fate
Sunday, October 12, 2008
How Low Could It Be?
Although it was only the 10th, it was a Black Friday.
Although all share prices were in "Red", it was a "Black" Friday.
Things are getting from Worse to Even Worse.
From Australia in South Hemisphere to Iceland in North Hemisphere - and HK in between!
Australian market fell by a stunning 8.3%, not seen since 87 CRASH & a world away from USA.
Iceland government took over the 3rd largest bank, then the largest bank, with its currency dropped from about 130 = 1 Euro to, last I checked, about 340 = 1 Euro!
And in Zimbabwe, Inflation is at an Unbelievable 238 Million %.
NOT 238% but 238,000,000%!
2 months ago, one could still buy a toilet roll for 1 million Zimbabwe money, now....... you need 40 million Zimbabwe money to buy the same toilet roll - make sure you do not have a stomach.
In Britain, the share dropped by 10% within the First 7 minutes when the market opened.
And the British Government has done something not done before - Guarantee the Liabilities of several major British Banks.
In USA, another precedent after so many precedents,
The Government is prepared to buy Bank Shares Directly.
And this is only to Worsen the Balance Sheet of the US Government - and the downgrade from Credit Agencies could happen anytime from now.
So, now we only need one/two more incidents to see the 50% + Fall in Wall St.
(I suspect DJIA is to fall to about 2,500 points, though the article "What History Tells Us About the Market" in www.wsj.com, suggesting Wall St. to fall around 6,000 level)
Now, the Storm has spread from US to Europe and Asia .
(Just look at Japan Nikkei Index's record fall every day!)
What is to happen in HK?
Property price to drop 20-30% (Worse than in US?)
Inflation is to rise further? (NOT as bad as Zimbabwe though)
Unemployment to rise further? (Any Doubt?)
Smaller banks to collapse? (Many developed countries now guarantee FULL bank deposits)
HK$ - will it be forced to Depreciate?
(South Korea, the "Asian Iceland", its Won has fallen by about 15% so far)
HSI to drop to SARS Level?
(I was advised it was around 8,000 points in April 2003)
I personally suspect HSI to fall to about 4,000 points.
Again, I could be Dead Wrong.
But if I'm Right, you are DEAD if you've NOT already made the necessary arrangements.
Cheers
Fate
Every Day There is a New Low
Although all share prices were in "Red", it was a "Black" Friday.
Things are getting from Worse to Even Worse.
From Australia in South Hemisphere to Iceland in North Hemisphere - and HK in between!
Australian market fell by a stunning 8.3%, not seen since 87 CRASH & a world away from USA.
Iceland government took over the 3rd largest bank, then the largest bank, with its currency dropped from about 130 = 1 Euro to, last I checked, about 340 = 1 Euro!
And in Zimbabwe, Inflation is at an Unbelievable 238 Million %.
NOT 238% but 238,000,000%!
2 months ago, one could still buy a toilet roll for 1 million Zimbabwe money, now....... you need 40 million Zimbabwe money to buy the same toilet roll - make sure you do not have a stomach.
In Britain, the share dropped by 10% within the First 7 minutes when the market opened.
And the British Government has done something not done before - Guarantee the Liabilities of several major British Banks.
In USA, another precedent after so many precedents,
The Government is prepared to buy Bank Shares Directly.
And this is only to Worsen the Balance Sheet of the US Government - and the downgrade from Credit Agencies could happen anytime from now.
So, now we only need one/two more incidents to see the 50% + Fall in Wall St.
(I suspect DJIA is to fall to about 2,500 points, though the article "What History Tells Us About the Market" in www.wsj.com, suggesting Wall St. to fall around 6,000 level)
Now, the Storm has spread from US to Europe and Asia .
(Just look at Japan Nikkei Index's record fall every day!)
What is to happen in HK?
Property price to drop 20-30% (Worse than in US?)
Inflation is to rise further? (NOT as bad as Zimbabwe though)
Unemployment to rise further? (Any Doubt?)
Smaller banks to collapse? (Many developed countries now guarantee FULL bank deposits)
HK$ - will it be forced to Depreciate?
(South Korea, the "Asian Iceland", its Won has fallen by about 15% so far)
HSI to drop to SARS Level?
(I was advised it was around 8,000 points in April 2003)
I personally suspect HSI to fall to about 4,000 points.
Again, I could be Dead Wrong.
But if I'm Right, you are DEAD if you've NOT already made the necessary arrangements.
Cheers
Fate
Every Day There is a New Low
Friday, October 10, 2008
Are You Ready?
No matter how fast China is Rising, how influential China has become, Wall St still Matters, Matters Most and Matters NOW.
Another 7.33% drop overnight.
20% drop in 7 days.
Almost 40% in Exactly 1 year.
There will be BLOOD everywhere when other markets open later today.
Just look at USA.
GM lost 31% in one day after being considered downgraded by Credit Agencies.
Goldman Sach & Merrill Lynch - both lost 26% in one day.
1 in 6 house owners in USA is having a house value LESS than its purchase price (i.e. Negative Equity)
Many States in USA are in the brink of Bankruptcy.
Unemployment will rise dramatically.
The Problems will get worse and worse.
Are you ready?
Ready for the Once in a Century Opportunity?
Cheers
Fate
Waiting is a Blessing
Another 7.33% drop overnight.
20% drop in 7 days.
Almost 40% in Exactly 1 year.
There will be BLOOD everywhere when other markets open later today.
Just look at USA.
GM lost 31% in one day after being considered downgraded by Credit Agencies.
Goldman Sach & Merrill Lynch - both lost 26% in one day.
1 in 6 house owners in USA is having a house value LESS than its purchase price (i.e. Negative Equity)
Many States in USA are in the brink of Bankruptcy.
Unemployment will rise dramatically.
The Problems will get worse and worse.
Are you ready?
Ready for the Once in a Century Opportunity?
Cheers
Fate
Waiting is a Blessing
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
CRASH IN OCTOBER?
Here we go again.
Another Round of Panic.
Another 5% drop in US overnight. Then 8.2% drop in HK. Over 10% in Indonesia.
And the Biggest Single Day Drop in Japan since 87 Crash, fell by 9.4%.
Japan lost 24% in 2 weeks and US lost 13% in 5 days!!
Then the Central Banks were rushing to cut rate by 0.5%.
Even the currencies are just as Dramatic.
A$ lost over 30% in 3 months, from US98 cents in July to now around US66 cents, that is, from HK$7.5 to HK$5.1!!!
Same to NZ$, which I lost the opportunity of making HK$400K profit by missing the chance to sell at HK$6.4 & buy back at 5.4, because of too busy in helping school and sorting out my boys' fast track arrangements. Regrets? NO.
Because as long as one has the Cash, Opportunity comes Everyday, Everywhere, can capitalise the coming CRASH!
It is now increasing likely the CRASH is to happen BEFORE Christmas if not by the end of this October (Gosh, the last Big Two ones also happened in October, 1929 & 1987!!)
This time, it could be another one day drop of 10% +
Then, may rebound a bit but fall again or go straight to fall by another 10% +
Then, may rebound a bit or go straight for the Big One - fall by 50% +
I believe the Wall St is to fall by 75% + from what it is today.
I could be Terribly Wrong, but if I am subsequently proved to be Right, you ONLY have yourself to Blame for NOT listening to me today and find cover for yourself.
Cheers
Fate
Everything is to Start All Over Again
Another Round of Panic.
Another 5% drop in US overnight. Then 8.2% drop in HK. Over 10% in Indonesia.
And the Biggest Single Day Drop in Japan since 87 Crash, fell by 9.4%.
Japan lost 24% in 2 weeks and US lost 13% in 5 days!!
Then the Central Banks were rushing to cut rate by 0.5%.
Even the currencies are just as Dramatic.
A$ lost over 30% in 3 months, from US98 cents in July to now around US66 cents, that is, from HK$7.5 to HK$5.1!!!
Same to NZ$, which I lost the opportunity of making HK$400K profit by missing the chance to sell at HK$6.4 & buy back at 5.4, because of too busy in helping school and sorting out my boys' fast track arrangements. Regrets? NO.
Because as long as one has the Cash, Opportunity comes Everyday, Everywhere, can capitalise the coming CRASH!
It is now increasing likely the CRASH is to happen BEFORE Christmas if not by the end of this October (Gosh, the last Big Two ones also happened in October, 1929 & 1987!!)
This time, it could be another one day drop of 10% +
Then, may rebound a bit but fall again or go straight to fall by another 10% +
Then, may rebound a bit or go straight for the Big One - fall by 50% +
I believe the Wall St is to fall by 75% + from what it is today.
I could be Terribly Wrong, but if I am subsequently proved to be Right, you ONLY have yourself to Blame for NOT listening to me today and find cover for yourself.
Cheers
Fate
Everything is to Start All Over Again
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Dramatic Events
Did I not say "Anything Could Happen" longtime ago?
Yesterday another Dramatic Day in Global share markets.
Britain had its Biggest One Day Fall since 87 Crash.
Russia had to suspend the market not once but three times in a day due to the great fall.
US dropped below 10,000 points in 4 years.
Germany, after Ireland and Greek, announced to guarantee all deposits at banks.
And today, Australia acted. Cutting interest rate by 1%, beating most prediction of a 0.5% cut.
The last time Australia had such a Dramatic Cut was back in 1992 - 16 years ago!
And the share market opened with a 3.3% drop but with the Dramatic rate cut, it finished with a 1.7% up! Miracle Days not restricted to HK or US, and now in Australia.
It is funny that China was the First to cut rate immediately after the Lehman's collapse.
And now Australia and even more Aggressive!
And Iceland, the small country offering the highest interest rate at 15% in the developed world, is now officially in trouble. Currency down by 31% within the last 30 days, as its government takes on too much bad debts from the troubled banks and has therefore been downgraded by the Credit Agencies. Its Prime Minister has warned the risk of Iceland declaring Bankruptcy has been significantly raised.
This means there are guaranteed more Dramatic Events to Occur.
E.g. imagine USA Government is downgraded by the Credit Agencies?
Remember how Fast and how Dramatic Lehman and AIA (as well as the two big US mortgage giants etc.) had fell after being downgraded?
With all these Dramatic Events happening, my consideration to relocate back to HK (Family Reason) seems to be Least Dramatic.
Cheers
Fate
Anything could happen Anytime from Now
Yesterday another Dramatic Day in Global share markets.
Britain had its Biggest One Day Fall since 87 Crash.
Russia had to suspend the market not once but three times in a day due to the great fall.
US dropped below 10,000 points in 4 years.
Germany, after Ireland and Greek, announced to guarantee all deposits at banks.
And today, Australia acted. Cutting interest rate by 1%, beating most prediction of a 0.5% cut.
The last time Australia had such a Dramatic Cut was back in 1992 - 16 years ago!
And the share market opened with a 3.3% drop but with the Dramatic rate cut, it finished with a 1.7% up! Miracle Days not restricted to HK or US, and now in Australia.
It is funny that China was the First to cut rate immediately after the Lehman's collapse.
And now Australia and even more Aggressive!
And Iceland, the small country offering the highest interest rate at 15% in the developed world, is now officially in trouble. Currency down by 31% within the last 30 days, as its government takes on too much bad debts from the troubled banks and has therefore been downgraded by the Credit Agencies. Its Prime Minister has warned the risk of Iceland declaring Bankruptcy has been significantly raised.
This means there are guaranteed more Dramatic Events to Occur.
E.g. imagine USA Government is downgraded by the Credit Agencies?
Remember how Fast and how Dramatic Lehman and AIA (as well as the two big US mortgage giants etc.) had fell after being downgraded?
With all these Dramatic Events happening, my consideration to relocate back to HK (Family Reason) seems to be Least Dramatic.
Cheers
Fate
Anything could happen Anytime from Now
Monday, October 6, 2008
Where are the REAL Experts?
I recently learnt from newspaper the once Miss Beach, Lam Kim-ming, better known as "Sha Che" had lost HK$10 Millions due to the Lehman's Mini Bonds.
This incident may have reminded you all about what I have been warning you lot all along.
There are very very few Real Financial Experts in this world.
And they are hard to meet because they are very busy in enjoying Life!
Those busy in appearing on TV Show, Radio Talk Show etc. trying to convince you some are "Very Safe Investment" are Saleperson only!! They are most likely NOT having got a glue what the investment all about themselves. And there are very good incentives for them to sell more of all these so called "Safe Investment" because these Salepersons are Commission Based!!
Never, Ever trust anyone has a Conflict of Interests.
You better off doing the Real and Hard Work Yourself.
I was really sadden by this incident, because Lam Kim-ming is my "Master" -'Sifu", in a way.
A few years ago, I read an article attracted by her remarks of,
"Always Maintaining 50% CASH"
This has become one of the my Golden Rules when Investing.
Another thing we should have learnt from this incident is :
"What Supposing Relatively Safe investment on paper could carry Huge Risk in real life."
Banks supposed to be very safe firms and yet they are the Hardest Hit in the current crisis.
Remember,
Trust NO one
Do your Homework
KEEP 50% CASH AT ALL TIMES.
AND WAIT.
Cheers
Fate
Never Drop Your Guard
This incident may have reminded you all about what I have been warning you lot all along.
There are very very few Real Financial Experts in this world.
And they are hard to meet because they are very busy in enjoying Life!
Those busy in appearing on TV Show, Radio Talk Show etc. trying to convince you some are "Very Safe Investment" are Saleperson only!! They are most likely NOT having got a glue what the investment all about themselves. And there are very good incentives for them to sell more of all these so called "Safe Investment" because these Salepersons are Commission Based!!
Never, Ever trust anyone has a Conflict of Interests.
You better off doing the Real and Hard Work Yourself.
I was really sadden by this incident, because Lam Kim-ming is my "Master" -'Sifu", in a way.
A few years ago, I read an article attracted by her remarks of,
"Always Maintaining 50% CASH"
This has become one of the my Golden Rules when Investing.
Another thing we should have learnt from this incident is :
"What Supposing Relatively Safe investment on paper could carry Huge Risk in real life."
Banks supposed to be very safe firms and yet they are the Hardest Hit in the current crisis.
Remember,
Trust NO one
Do your Homework
KEEP 50% CASH AT ALL TIMES.
AND WAIT.
Cheers
Fate
Never Drop Your Guard
Friday, October 3, 2008
Worst Time + Buying Time?
Saw Mr Sze Wing-ching, the Boss of Centaline Real Estate while watching TVB news on SBS (www.sbs.com.au) channel the other day. He described the current situation in the real estate industry HK as "Ice Age", during which NOT just one or two species extinct, but ALL species will be in trouble. And his agency just fired about 600 staff from his 3,500 workforce!
And now everyone is pouring money to the Safest Place on earth, the US Treasury Short Term Bonds, which is paying a pity around 0.3% interest .
I saw in news US people are rushing to buy safes, so that they could lock their cash at home, rather than leaving them in an unsafe bank, as noone knows which bank to collapse next.
Just earlier this evening, I learnt from SBS news the IMF stated the current situation is the worst since the 1930's Great Depression. And the Irish Government has extented to Guarantee ALL money (i.e. NO Limits) kept in banks from initially in Ireland only to Irish Banks operating in UK.
This is Pure Panic Everywhere.
This means even the US$700 Billion Bail Out package is approved by the US Congress tonight, it would only Buy More Time. The problem is so BIG now, it would not just go away without Massive Damages.
One of which could be Massive Unemployment.
The Worst Time has Yet to come.
Cheers
Fate
Failing To Plan is Planning To Fail
And now everyone is pouring money to the Safest Place on earth, the US Treasury Short Term Bonds, which is paying a pity around 0.3% interest .
I saw in news US people are rushing to buy safes, so that they could lock their cash at home, rather than leaving them in an unsafe bank, as noone knows which bank to collapse next.
Just earlier this evening, I learnt from SBS news the IMF stated the current situation is the worst since the 1930's Great Depression. And the Irish Government has extented to Guarantee ALL money (i.e. NO Limits) kept in banks from initially in Ireland only to Irish Banks operating in UK.
This is Pure Panic Everywhere.
This means even the US$700 Billion Bail Out package is approved by the US Congress tonight, it would only Buy More Time. The problem is so BIG now, it would not just go away without Massive Damages.
One of which could be Massive Unemployment.
The Worst Time has Yet to come.
Cheers
Fate
Failing To Plan is Planning To Fail
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Witnessing History
For the last few weeks, History being made - AND made again and again.
Just to give a few examples.
Record Rise in one day, Record Fall in another in the global share markets.
Miracle Days in HK.
Two Banks have so far been Nationalised in Britain.
Three Indepedent Investment Banks in Wall St gone.
The World's Largest Insurance Firm "Nationalised."
The Speed and Scale of the events have shocked everyone.
What had NOT happened in more than 150 years, happened within days!
And the current proposed US$700 Billion Bail Out in US is More than the TOTAL help that IMF (founded in 1947) has offered in its 61-year history (like helping Argentina, Turkey, Britain, South Korea). And IMF has so far spent only US$506 Billions! That's how Massive the Current Mess in US is.
In fact, the Mess is Much Bigger than the US$700 Billions - The Credit Default Swap alone is about US$64 Trillions, that is, 64,000,000,000,000!!! (i.e. about 90 times > 700,000,000,000)
I'd stated in my BK post back in July 2007, the Greatest Depression is coming. And lately, at least two well respected financial REAL experts have openly expressed (The Ex Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan & The Ex HK Financial Secretary, Leung Kam-chung)
"We are having a Once in a Century Situation."
Other than Witnessing History, I suggest everyone to Review History,
Checked the Lowest Price for your Preferred Shares for the last 8 (if not 10)Years.
Remember to learn from History, NOT to repeat the History, and avoid being a Victim again (like I was) of the Asian Crisis or 911 (or SARS). One of which is,
Share Price could be Very Very Cheap!
Cheers
Fate
With The Greatest Crisis comes the Greatest Opportunity
Just to give a few examples.
Record Rise in one day, Record Fall in another in the global share markets.
Miracle Days in HK.
Two Banks have so far been Nationalised in Britain.
Three Indepedent Investment Banks in Wall St gone.
The World's Largest Insurance Firm "Nationalised."
The Speed and Scale of the events have shocked everyone.
What had NOT happened in more than 150 years, happened within days!
And the current proposed US$700 Billion Bail Out in US is More than the TOTAL help that IMF (founded in 1947) has offered in its 61-year history (like helping Argentina, Turkey, Britain, South Korea). And IMF has so far spent only US$506 Billions! That's how Massive the Current Mess in US is.
In fact, the Mess is Much Bigger than the US$700 Billions - The Credit Default Swap alone is about US$64 Trillions, that is, 64,000,000,000,000!!! (i.e. about 90 times > 700,000,000,000)
I'd stated in my BK post back in July 2007, the Greatest Depression is coming. And lately, at least two well respected financial REAL experts have openly expressed (The Ex Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan & The Ex HK Financial Secretary, Leung Kam-chung)
"We are having a Once in a Century Situation."
Other than Witnessing History, I suggest everyone to Review History,
Checked the Lowest Price for your Preferred Shares for the last 8 (if not 10)Years.
Remember to learn from History, NOT to repeat the History, and avoid being a Victim again (like I was) of the Asian Crisis or 911 (or SARS). One of which is,
Share Price could be Very Very Cheap!
Cheers
Fate
With The Greatest Crisis comes the Greatest Opportunity
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