Given that noone has Unlimited Time & Energy, one has to focus on what I call the Most Relevant Factor (MRF)
Just like when you're selecting a school for your much loved child, you would compare the MRF amongst different schools. It could be the academic achievements of the students, could be the class size....
Just like when you're searching the Pefect wife/husband, you would automatically judge the woman/man in front of you if s/he meets your MRF. It could be their height, their look.....
So, the same logic should be applied when it comes to Investment.
Before jumping to buy/sell, one has to ask themselves,
"What is the MRF at this particular moment of time?"
Given that I am deeply convinced the Greatest Recession is approaching since June 2007, I have been keeping any eye on, to me, the MRF since September 2007.
It is NOT,
- the Inflation Rate;
- the Growth Rate
- the Manufacturing Index;
- the Consumer Confidence Index;
- the Exporting Goods Index
- the Inventory Stock Index
-.............
But the Unemployment Rate!!!
Whatever happens, this Unemployment Rate is NOW the MRF at this particular moment.
It is a True Reflection of what is REALLY going on in this WWIII.
More and More people are being laid off.
Being laid off in China, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, NZ, UK, Russia, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, India, USA.........
And I think whatever the Unemployment Rate is now, it will be increased by 50% by the end of year 2009 (i.e. if it's now 4%, it'll be 6% in a year time)
Remember, the Great Depression in the 1930's had the 25% Unemployment Rate.
And even in the 80's the US had a 10% Unemployment Rate.
Given that the current WWIII is a "Once in a Century Event", what do you think the Unemployment Rate will be?
An International Labour Association just released its findings.
For the first time in 10 years, there are about 2 Billion People are Unemployed Globally!
And in US, 200,000 jobs in the Financial Industry was gone this year. And it is estimated another 400,000 financial jobs will be gone in 2009.
And with More People being Unemployed, there will be More Instability.
Just look at the recent riot in Greece.
After assessing the MRF, you have to take the MRA - the Most Relevant Action.
Fate
Keep Your Money Safe
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
The Truth
Remember the First Post of this blog, "The Beginning", published on 29 September 2008?
I'd mentioned in that Post, I FIRST warned others about the Coming CRASH back in June 2007 through the post, "The Secrets of Losing Millions" in the www.baby-kingdom.com website. (Please refer to "The Beginning" for the link)
I'd subsequently sent the Part 2-5 of the "Secrets of Losing Millions" to some selected parents.
The following is the Part 2 - now share with you.
THE FOLLOWING WAS SENT TO SOME PARENTS IN AUGUST 2007 (YES, NOT 2008)
There are a few things many Financial Advisers have got Very Wrong, which could just be a
Honest Mistake due to their Incompetence and Laziness, but could also simply be a Misleading with Intent for their Own Gains ( i.e . Commission or Fees)
***Investment with a Long Term View but with Short Time Strategies NOT = Investment is for the Long Term***
INCOMPETENT/INCONSIDERATE FINANCIAL ADVISERS
Do you know WHY most if not all Financial Advisers keep "Brain-Washing" you with this SEEMS to be Perfectly Logical Concept of,
Investment is for Long Term?
Because First, they DON'T want you to keep ringing them if the Shares keep dropping every day/week.
Because these "Experts" remind you IN ADVANCE,
"Don't worry about the Short Term Movements, Shares will Rise in the Long Term."
Because Second, in the Short Term, these "Experts'" will move to another post either in his own firm or to another firm!
Because these "Experts" enjoy changing job like any other workers in HK every 2-3 years!
So, it is highly likely these "Experts" will NOT actually be working for you for the Long Term!
Because Third, and most importantly, these "Experts" are basically ONLY "Salespersons".
Because these "Experts" earn UPFRONT Commission when you buy their recommended products, and earn More if you stay for Long Term!
These "Experts" mostly are either Incompetent or DON'T really care about you - they care about their and NOT your Earnings!!
Do a little experiment yourself.
Get the Business Card of the Bank Officer did your mortgage 2-3 years ago, see if she still works in the SAME office/branch, or even in the SAME bank!! (do the same for the person selling you an investment)
OVERSEA EXPERIENCE
When I was in Britain, I visited at least 5 so called "Independent Advisers".
They were not that Impressive at all.
They were NOT Independent from the start, as they would receive Commission from the Firm when a client acted on their recommendation!
I told one of them I would pay for his fee (rather than letting the Bank/Firm paying him).
He then told me he would now be More Comfortable and More Willingly to make True recommendation.
He also advised me for every 100 Sterling Pound a client invested for his recommendation, he would get between 2-5 Sterling pounds (i.e. 2-5%) during the WHOLE period that a client HAVING the Investment - this is another MAJOR reason for them to persuade you to Investing for Long Term!!
In Britain, there had been a BIG Mis-selling of several Investment Products during late 80s and 90s.
One of them was the "Endowment Policy" - a product combining a Life Insurance Policy & Investment Policy together.
Clients had NEVER been informed the CHARGE was so GREAT.
And, if a client had to sell the Policy WITHIN the first 7 Years of taking the Policy, they would still lose out!!!
In NZ, a 90-year-old Elderly was recommended by an "Expert" to take up a Financial Product that could NOT be cashed in for the First 5 Years! The Authority had condemned the Misleading "Expert"!
SO NEVER TRUST ANYONE THAT HAS AN ACTUAL/POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTERESTS.
INVESTING WITH DISCIPLINE & VISION
So, what is this,
"Investing with a Long Term View but with Short Term Strategies"?
This simply means,
"Be Patient first.
Then, DON'T be TOO Greedy and Have Discipline - Set & Stick to your Targets."
This means DON'T expect Price is to Rise/Fall within days or months.
It could take up to TEN Years for an Event to happen or to reach your Targeted Price/Return.
But remember, we are now living in a much more Complicated World.
Dramatic things Happen More Often and More Quickly (like Asian Crisis, 911, SARS), as well as our Own Circumstances are More Likely to Change and Change More Often these days (like sorry to say having a Divorce - 1 in 2 couples are having it anywhere in this world! A Serious Health Issue, an Unwanted legal Issue etc. etc..)
So, even investing with a Long Term View, one therefore has to prepare you MAY have to sell your Investment SOONER than you first expected - and at a LESS Favourable Price.
As such, NEVER BUY anything with a BAD Return from a Start or anything TOO Expansive, in the hope that in the Long Term, it will Rise or Rise Further!!
Also, if a Long Term Target is reached in Short Term - DON'T Wait - just cash in! As shares do up and down all the times!
For example, the Peregine (Pak Fu Cun).
Even it rose by more than 60% in two years, I didn't sell it, in the hope that it would rise further in the Long Run!
And in the end, Peregine gone bust and my shares became wall paper in 1998!!
I had made a Serious Mistake in this incident.
I never had a Target Price to sell from the start.
So, I just thought if the price rose by 60% in 2 years, this means it would rise by 150% in 5 years and 300% in 10 years!!!
Unfortunately there is NO Logic in Investment!
Set Realistic Targets
I now set a Target Return for share investment.
I aim to have a 100% return in about 5 years.
But, rather than waiting for the WHOLE 5 years before cashing in, I will cash in if the share SUDDENLY DOUBLE the rate I expect in a year, i.e. 40% within a year period (100% divided by 5 years = 20% a year)
Assuming I bought the share $10 last year on 31 Dec 2006.
And once the share price reaches $14 I will IMMEDIATELY SELL, regardless if SUCH price is reached tomorrow, next week or next month or by the end of this year. (i.e. WITHIN a year)
One Bird Actually in Hand NOW is Much Better than two Birds that MAY be in Bush 10 years LATER!
Hope you lot have got the Message.
Next Sunday, we'll move onto the Part 3,
"The Best Time to buy NOT= Trying to Time the Bottom of a market"
Cheers
Fate
Outstanding Education comes from YOURSELF - Your Ability to learn from Your Mistakes
REMEMBER THE ABOVE WAS SENT OUT IN AUG 2007 (YES, NOT 2008!)
Fate
Learn from Past, Plan for Future
I'd mentioned in that Post, I FIRST warned others about the Coming CRASH back in June 2007 through the post, "The Secrets of Losing Millions" in the www.baby-kingdom.com website. (Please refer to "The Beginning" for the link)
I'd subsequently sent the Part 2-5 of the "Secrets of Losing Millions" to some selected parents.
The following is the Part 2 - now share with you.
THE FOLLOWING WAS SENT TO SOME PARENTS IN AUGUST 2007 (YES, NOT 2008)
There are a few things many Financial Advisers have got Very Wrong, which could just be a
Honest Mistake due to their Incompetence and Laziness, but could also simply be a Misleading with Intent for their Own Gains ( i.e . Commission or Fees)
***Investment with a Long Term View but with Short Time Strategies NOT = Investment is for the Long Term***
INCOMPETENT/INCONSIDERATE FINANCIAL ADVISERS
Do you know WHY most if not all Financial Advisers keep "Brain-Washing" you with this SEEMS to be Perfectly Logical Concept of,
Investment is for Long Term?
Because First, they DON'T want you to keep ringing them if the Shares keep dropping every day/week.
Because these "Experts" remind you IN ADVANCE,
"Don't worry about the Short Term Movements, Shares will Rise in the Long Term."
Because Second, in the Short Term, these "Experts'" will move to another post either in his own firm or to another firm!
Because these "Experts" enjoy changing job like any other workers in HK every 2-3 years!
So, it is highly likely these "Experts" will NOT actually be working for you for the Long Term!
Because Third, and most importantly, these "Experts" are basically ONLY "Salespersons".
Because these "Experts" earn UPFRONT Commission when you buy their recommended products, and earn More if you stay for Long Term!
These "Experts" mostly are either Incompetent or DON'T really care about you - they care about their and NOT your Earnings!!
Do a little experiment yourself.
Get the Business Card of the Bank Officer did your mortgage 2-3 years ago, see if she still works in the SAME office/branch, or even in the SAME bank!! (do the same for the person selling you an investment)
OVERSEA EXPERIENCE
When I was in Britain, I visited at least 5 so called "Independent Advisers".
They were not that Impressive at all.
They were NOT Independent from the start, as they would receive Commission from the Firm when a client acted on their recommendation!
I told one of them I would pay for his fee (rather than letting the Bank/Firm paying him).
He then told me he would now be More Comfortable and More Willingly to make True recommendation.
He also advised me for every 100 Sterling Pound a client invested for his recommendation, he would get between 2-5 Sterling pounds (i.e. 2-5%) during the WHOLE period that a client HAVING the Investment - this is another MAJOR reason for them to persuade you to Investing for Long Term!!
In Britain, there had been a BIG Mis-selling of several Investment Products during late 80s and 90s.
One of them was the "Endowment Policy" - a product combining a Life Insurance Policy & Investment Policy together.
Clients had NEVER been informed the CHARGE was so GREAT.
And, if a client had to sell the Policy WITHIN the first 7 Years of taking the Policy, they would still lose out!!!
In NZ, a 90-year-old Elderly was recommended by an "Expert" to take up a Financial Product that could NOT be cashed in for the First 5 Years! The Authority had condemned the Misleading "Expert"!
SO NEVER TRUST ANYONE THAT HAS AN ACTUAL/POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTERESTS.
INVESTING WITH DISCIPLINE & VISION
So, what is this,
"Investing with a Long Term View but with Short Term Strategies"?
This simply means,
"Be Patient first.
Then, DON'T be TOO Greedy and Have Discipline - Set & Stick to your Targets."
This means DON'T expect Price is to Rise/Fall within days or months.
It could take up to TEN Years for an Event to happen or to reach your Targeted Price/Return.
But remember, we are now living in a much more Complicated World.
Dramatic things Happen More Often and More Quickly (like Asian Crisis, 911, SARS), as well as our Own Circumstances are More Likely to Change and Change More Often these days (like sorry to say having a Divorce - 1 in 2 couples are having it anywhere in this world! A Serious Health Issue, an Unwanted legal Issue etc. etc..)
So, even investing with a Long Term View, one therefore has to prepare you MAY have to sell your Investment SOONER than you first expected - and at a LESS Favourable Price.
As such, NEVER BUY anything with a BAD Return from a Start or anything TOO Expansive, in the hope that in the Long Term, it will Rise or Rise Further!!
Also, if a Long Term Target is reached in Short Term - DON'T Wait - just cash in! As shares do up and down all the times!
For example, the Peregine (Pak Fu Cun).
Even it rose by more than 60% in two years, I didn't sell it, in the hope that it would rise further in the Long Run!
And in the end, Peregine gone bust and my shares became wall paper in 1998!!
I had made a Serious Mistake in this incident.
I never had a Target Price to sell from the start.
So, I just thought if the price rose by 60% in 2 years, this means it would rise by 150% in 5 years and 300% in 10 years!!!
Unfortunately there is NO Logic in Investment!
Set Realistic Targets
I now set a Target Return for share investment.
I aim to have a 100% return in about 5 years.
But, rather than waiting for the WHOLE 5 years before cashing in, I will cash in if the share SUDDENLY DOUBLE the rate I expect in a year, i.e. 40% within a year period (100% divided by 5 years = 20% a year)
Assuming I bought the share $10 last year on 31 Dec 2006.
And once the share price reaches $14 I will IMMEDIATELY SELL, regardless if SUCH price is reached tomorrow, next week or next month or by the end of this year. (i.e. WITHIN a year)
One Bird Actually in Hand NOW is Much Better than two Birds that MAY be in Bush 10 years LATER!
Hope you lot have got the Message.
Next Sunday, we'll move onto the Part 3,
"The Best Time to buy NOT= Trying to Time the Bottom of a market"
Cheers
Fate
Outstanding Education comes from YOURSELF - Your Ability to learn from Your Mistakes
REMEMBER THE ABOVE WAS SENT OUT IN AUG 2007 (YES, NOT 2008!)
Fate
Learn from Past, Plan for Future
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Stay Ahead
Just look at the latest figures.
Yesterday was the last full trading day of the Wall St.
So far the index has fell by about 36.5% from the beginning of the year - on track to be the Biggest Annual Loss since 1931, during the throes of the Great Depression.
Toyota, the World' No.2 car maker, has its First Operating Loss in 71 years!
For the First time of this WWIII, a church has been re-possessed in US - and there will be more to come!
The House Price fell at its Fastest Rate in 40 years in US since the record began in 1968!
Even the China is having a Major Problem in its CPI, Russia is suffering from its continue Depreciate currency, NZ has its THIRD Straight Quarter Contraction.........
So, do you still believe what some "Experts" say,
"The World Economy will recover by the end of 2009"?
In fact, the Worse is getting Even Worse.
I saw a programme "60 minutes +" last Thursday.
During which, it was revealed the WWIII is soon to have another Major Battle, claiming even More Financial Casualties.
The Sub-Prime US$1 Trillion Mortgage has already created a Bigger than Expected Global Damages. Now it would be the turn of another US$1 Trillion Alt A-A Mortgage and the US$600 Billion Arm Option Mortgage to Extend the Damages Further.
There are more and more Defaults on these two types of Mortgage, some of them will have to refix its Mortgage Rate next year, with a monthly payment of US$800 to be jumped to US$1,500!!
And this mean More and Bigger Problems!!
Not to mention the Commercial Building market is also Collapsing and Collapsing Fast, so is the Credit Card market !
And about 30 out of 50 US States are in desperate need of cash to keep essential services going. Two states have already used up the "Unemployment Benefits" fund!
Do NOT Buy Now - it's NOT Bottom yet.
Unless you Act Extremely Fast and are Extremely Lucky, allowing you to make a Quick 15-20% Quick Speculation Profit within a Quick Timeframe (5-hour trading)
Plan Ahead for More Tough Times Ahead.
Fate
Stay Two Steps Ahead or you'll be Bagged
Yesterday was the last full trading day of the Wall St.
So far the index has fell by about 36.5% from the beginning of the year - on track to be the Biggest Annual Loss since 1931, during the throes of the Great Depression.
Toyota, the World' No.2 car maker, has its First Operating Loss in 71 years!
For the First time of this WWIII, a church has been re-possessed in US - and there will be more to come!
The House Price fell at its Fastest Rate in 40 years in US since the record began in 1968!
Even the China is having a Major Problem in its CPI, Russia is suffering from its continue Depreciate currency, NZ has its THIRD Straight Quarter Contraction.........
So, do you still believe what some "Experts" say,
"The World Economy will recover by the end of 2009"?
In fact, the Worse is getting Even Worse.
I saw a programme "60 minutes +" last Thursday.
During which, it was revealed the WWIII is soon to have another Major Battle, claiming even More Financial Casualties.
The Sub-Prime US$1 Trillion Mortgage has already created a Bigger than Expected Global Damages. Now it would be the turn of another US$1 Trillion Alt A-A Mortgage and the US$600 Billion Arm Option Mortgage to Extend the Damages Further.
There are more and more Defaults on these two types of Mortgage, some of them will have to refix its Mortgage Rate next year, with a monthly payment of US$800 to be jumped to US$1,500!!
And this mean More and Bigger Problems!!
Not to mention the Commercial Building market is also Collapsing and Collapsing Fast, so is the Credit Card market !
And about 30 out of 50 US States are in desperate need of cash to keep essential services going. Two states have already used up the "Unemployment Benefits" fund!
Do NOT Buy Now - it's NOT Bottom yet.
Unless you Act Extremely Fast and are Extremely Lucky, allowing you to make a Quick 15-20% Quick Speculation Profit within a Quick Timeframe (5-hour trading)
Plan Ahead for More Tough Times Ahead.
Fate
Stay Two Steps Ahead or you'll be Bagged
Sunday, December 21, 2008
The BIGGEST Lie
Just look at More Lies.
1) The Asian Share Markets are to rise by 30% Next Year.
Claimed by the two top men in the Fidelity (Asia) Fund Management when launching a new Asia Fund last week.
Just ask yourself the following question.
If you find a $100 note from a dustbin everyday when you walking past it, would you tell anyone about this fact?
NO!
This is just a Simple Logic - Common Sense.
Because if you do, everyone is going to fight for that dustbin - and you'll never see it again!
So, if these two top men SINCERELY believe the Markets are REALLY to rise by 30%, do you think you REALLY have a chance to buy a share of the Fund they're promoting?
Of course NOT!
The two top men would have bought ALL the "Guaranteed 30% Profit" THEMSELVES!
Or Quietly &Quickly sell this "Must Win" Fund to ALL their Relatives and Closed Friends!
ALL Booked, Pre-sold even before you having a chance of finding out the name of the Fund!
Remember, these top men are "Salepersons"ONLY and they're just doing their job:
You take the Risk, they take your Cash!
2) The Current Credit Crunch is due to Banks do not trust each other and therefore not lending to each other
Claimed by most "Experts" ever since the Crunch started in July 2007.
The fact is, I believe,
Banks do NOT Trust THEMSELVES and therefore NOT lending others to Protect THEMSELVES!
The CEO, CFO etc. of every Bank have NOT got a glue what Exactly has been going on WITHIN its own Bank - how much money has been put into the CDO, how much money has been bet on the CDS, how many "Toxic' Assets it has on its Balance Sheet, which of its debtors are to default........
So, instead of lending out its spare cash, banks now have to keep its fund - just in case a Major Hidden Problem "Suddenly" Surface! Banks are now in a "Survival Mode".
3) The Global Financial Markets will Recover by the end of 2009
This is the Biggest Lie.
Remember, even ONE medium sized LOCAL firm in trouble requires at least 12 months to be turned around.
How long do you therefore think it needs to put THOUSANDS (if not tens of thousands) of BIG International Firms in DEEP Trouble in OVER 100 countries back on the track again?
The Worse is only beginning, gradually surfacing.
More & more firms collapsing every day.
More & more unskilled, skilled and Highly Professional workers are being laid off every day.
More & more unemployed protesting in streets every day etc.
Do you really think things will turn around within the next 12 months?
Stay Focus.
Never be FOOLED by these "Experts" again.
After all, these "Experts" have made you lost most if not all of your savings!
You have to accept the Greatest Depression is coming.
And it'll be here for a Long Haul.
Be Prepared, my Friends.
Fate
Best Preparation, Worst Expectation
1) The Asian Share Markets are to rise by 30% Next Year.
Claimed by the two top men in the Fidelity (Asia) Fund Management when launching a new Asia Fund last week.
Just ask yourself the following question.
If you find a $100 note from a dustbin everyday when you walking past it, would you tell anyone about this fact?
NO!
This is just a Simple Logic - Common Sense.
Because if you do, everyone is going to fight for that dustbin - and you'll never see it again!
So, if these two top men SINCERELY believe the Markets are REALLY to rise by 30%, do you think you REALLY have a chance to buy a share of the Fund they're promoting?
Of course NOT!
The two top men would have bought ALL the "Guaranteed 30% Profit" THEMSELVES!
Or Quietly &Quickly sell this "Must Win" Fund to ALL their Relatives and Closed Friends!
ALL Booked, Pre-sold even before you having a chance of finding out the name of the Fund!
Remember, these top men are "Salepersons"ONLY and they're just doing their job:
You take the Risk, they take your Cash!
2) The Current Credit Crunch is due to Banks do not trust each other and therefore not lending to each other
Claimed by most "Experts" ever since the Crunch started in July 2007.
The fact is, I believe,
Banks do NOT Trust THEMSELVES and therefore NOT lending others to Protect THEMSELVES!
The CEO, CFO etc. of every Bank have NOT got a glue what Exactly has been going on WITHIN its own Bank - how much money has been put into the CDO, how much money has been bet on the CDS, how many "Toxic' Assets it has on its Balance Sheet, which of its debtors are to default........
So, instead of lending out its spare cash, banks now have to keep its fund - just in case a Major Hidden Problem "Suddenly" Surface! Banks are now in a "Survival Mode".
3) The Global Financial Markets will Recover by the end of 2009
This is the Biggest Lie.
Remember, even ONE medium sized LOCAL firm in trouble requires at least 12 months to be turned around.
How long do you therefore think it needs to put THOUSANDS (if not tens of thousands) of BIG International Firms in DEEP Trouble in OVER 100 countries back on the track again?
The Worse is only beginning, gradually surfacing.
More & more firms collapsing every day.
More & more unskilled, skilled and Highly Professional workers are being laid off every day.
More & more unemployed protesting in streets every day etc.
Do you really think things will turn around within the next 12 months?
Stay Focus.
Never be FOOLED by these "Experts" again.
After all, these "Experts" have made you lost most if not all of your savings!
You have to accept the Greatest Depression is coming.
And it'll be here for a Long Haul.
Be Prepared, my Friends.
Fate
Best Preparation, Worst Expectation
Friday, December 19, 2008
More Lies
There are so many Liars around us.
Trying every opportunity to take money away from us.
It is happening in daylight, in a luxury office, in here and there......
It is a "Daylight Robbery"!
Because these Liars may appear as a CEO/Chairperson of a listed firm.
Claiming how good the firm has been performing when in fact the firm is soon to have Massive Write Off!
Claiming there will be double digit growth when in fact the firm is to have Huge Sales Decline!
Claiming there is no need to raise more Capital in the near future when in fact fund is raised Again in a month and at a Bigger Discount!
What do the above Liars want?
An Extremely Generous Pay Package?
A Big End of Year Bonus Payment?
A Golden Handshake for Departure? (even when being fired!!)
None of the above................................
But ALL of the above!
(And a Chairperson of an Australian Investment Bank had a Golden Handshake of A$20 Million when he retired about 6 months ago)
So, as expected, these Trusted and therefore Empowered Professionals will do anything, including LYING, to get their hands on BIG money! That is, instead of Working for the"Common Good", they only work for their OWN Good!
And in HK, we had a Drama happened at a TV Station recently.
It took God 7 days to make the World and it has taken us 12 days to see the "Inside World" of a Chairperson - a Liar in nature.
12 days ago, this Chairperson appearing in a Packed press conference, claiming he and his hand picked CEO would be closely working together to turn the 2nd TV station around. This Chairperson stressed at the time,
"We are to sit with Back to Back, covering each other's Back, working so closely Physically and Mentally together, there is nothing can possibly separate us."
And yet 12 days later (yes, NOT 12 Months or 12 Years!), they DID go separate way.
The SAME Chairperson appearing in a Even More Packed press conference, explaining why he had accepted the "Resignation" of his personally chosen CEO (even though the CEO had released a statement, claiming he had NEVER submitted any Resignation!)
"We have Irreconcilable Differences"
Do you still have Faith in this Chairperson?
About his Integrity - was he lying back then? Or is he lying now?
About his Ability - was he Incompetent back then? Or is he now acting on Impulse too?
Some Liars may appear as a Professional Economist/Analysts too.
Now forecasting the oil price to drop below US$40 when it is falling, when only a few months ago, he forecasted the oil price to rise to US$200 when of course the price was rising at the time!
Now forecasting HK economy to contract by 3% (i.e. -3%) next year when only a few months ago, claiming HK economy to expand by 2.2%! (i.e. +2.2%) !
These Liars want you to sell when they want to buy, want you to buy when they're selling!
What are the above Ugly Facts reminding you?
Trust Noone.
Trust noone in this ever changing financial world - the above so called "Professionals " are Guessing just like you and I.
And the ONLY Difference between them and us is
We do NOT lie to Ourselves.
Or, do you?
Fate
Be Honest. Be Fair. Be Prepared.
Trying every opportunity to take money away from us.
It is happening in daylight, in a luxury office, in here and there......
It is a "Daylight Robbery"!
Because these Liars may appear as a CEO/Chairperson of a listed firm.
Claiming how good the firm has been performing when in fact the firm is soon to have Massive Write Off!
Claiming there will be double digit growth when in fact the firm is to have Huge Sales Decline!
Claiming there is no need to raise more Capital in the near future when in fact fund is raised Again in a month and at a Bigger Discount!
What do the above Liars want?
An Extremely Generous Pay Package?
A Big End of Year Bonus Payment?
A Golden Handshake for Departure? (even when being fired!!)
None of the above................................
But ALL of the above!
(And a Chairperson of an Australian Investment Bank had a Golden Handshake of A$20 Million when he retired about 6 months ago)
So, as expected, these Trusted and therefore Empowered Professionals will do anything, including LYING, to get their hands on BIG money! That is, instead of Working for the"Common Good", they only work for their OWN Good!
And in HK, we had a Drama happened at a TV Station recently.
It took God 7 days to make the World and it has taken us 12 days to see the "Inside World" of a Chairperson - a Liar in nature.
12 days ago, this Chairperson appearing in a Packed press conference, claiming he and his hand picked CEO would be closely working together to turn the 2nd TV station around. This Chairperson stressed at the time,
"We are to sit with Back to Back, covering each other's Back, working so closely Physically and Mentally together, there is nothing can possibly separate us."
And yet 12 days later (yes, NOT 12 Months or 12 Years!), they DID go separate way.
The SAME Chairperson appearing in a Even More Packed press conference, explaining why he had accepted the "Resignation" of his personally chosen CEO (even though the CEO had released a statement, claiming he had NEVER submitted any Resignation!)
"We have Irreconcilable Differences"
Do you still have Faith in this Chairperson?
About his Integrity - was he lying back then? Or is he lying now?
About his Ability - was he Incompetent back then? Or is he now acting on Impulse too?
Some Liars may appear as a Professional Economist/Analysts too.
Now forecasting the oil price to drop below US$40 when it is falling, when only a few months ago, he forecasted the oil price to rise to US$200 when of course the price was rising at the time!
Now forecasting HK economy to contract by 3% (i.e. -3%) next year when only a few months ago, claiming HK economy to expand by 2.2%! (i.e. +2.2%) !
These Liars want you to sell when they want to buy, want you to buy when they're selling!
What are the above Ugly Facts reminding you?
Trust Noone.
Trust noone in this ever changing financial world - the above so called "Professionals " are Guessing just like you and I.
And the ONLY Difference between them and us is
We do NOT lie to Ourselves.
Or, do you?
Fate
Be Honest. Be Fair. Be Prepared.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Lies
Did the name "Madoff" NOT ring any bell?
He is "Mad" and ran "off" with everyone's money!
Only > US$50 Billions!!
(I guarantee you the True Figure is much much Higher than this US$50 Billions, given that some of the money is "Dirty Money" and some Victims do not wish to come out )
How could this guy operating such a large scaled scam for over 14,600 days?
Did anyone NOT notice something was Wrong during all these times?
Of course not!
But why anyone would be bother to become the "Whistle Blower" or taking the warning from a "Whistle Blower" seriously, when everyone was making some good money?
Even though noone, for example, genuinely believes a broken plastic toilet seat could worth US$1,000 - how did it matter - another idiot is prepared to pay US$1,500 for it while there are more idiots knocking on the door, fighting to get the toilet seat for US$2,000!
Like Love, there is NO logic in investment.
Where is the Logic now :-
- when everyone knows how Big Money the Hedge Funds have, How Influential these Hedge Funds have become etc., and yet noone knows exactly what these Hedge Funds been doing!! They are Untouchable - NOT regulated!
And the funny bit?
They have been around for so many decades!
- a Liquidator could find about A$4,000 cash only from a collapsed Australian firm, even though the firm's own accounting book showing it should have over A$4 Million cash!
- a Director of a listed "Blue Chip" in HK had lost billions of cash after him speculating on the Accumulator, the loss is equivalent of 50% of the "Red Chip"'s Total Assets!
- many investors still trying to "Jump Into" the market, when it is obvious the market is to fall by at least another 60-70% from its current level!
So many Liars around.
Some of them showing you Impressive Graphs of Investment Return in a Meeting Room.
Some of them showing you Impressive Knowledge of Almost Every Firm on TV.
Some of them showing you Impressive Techincs of "Predicting" Market/Share Movements in Newspaper.
Some of them........
But, All of them have the SAME and ONLY ONE Objective,
making you to be DEPENDANT ON THEM.
So that, "You take the Risk, they take Your CASH!"
An Hour a Day (checking what's going on around the world)
Keep your Money Safe ( keep these "Ripping Off Experts away!)
Fate
Greed Breeds Lies
He is "Mad" and ran "off" with everyone's money!
Only > US$50 Billions!!
(I guarantee you the True Figure is much much Higher than this US$50 Billions, given that some of the money is "Dirty Money" and some Victims do not wish to come out )
How could this guy operating such a large scaled scam for over 14,600 days?
Did anyone NOT notice something was Wrong during all these times?
Of course not!
But why anyone would be bother to become the "Whistle Blower" or taking the warning from a "Whistle Blower" seriously, when everyone was making some good money?
Even though noone, for example, genuinely believes a broken plastic toilet seat could worth US$1,000 - how did it matter - another idiot is prepared to pay US$1,500 for it while there are more idiots knocking on the door, fighting to get the toilet seat for US$2,000!
Like Love, there is NO logic in investment.
Where is the Logic now :-
- when everyone knows how Big Money the Hedge Funds have, How Influential these Hedge Funds have become etc., and yet noone knows exactly what these Hedge Funds been doing!! They are Untouchable - NOT regulated!
And the funny bit?
They have been around for so many decades!
- a Liquidator could find about A$4,000 cash only from a collapsed Australian firm, even though the firm's own accounting book showing it should have over A$4 Million cash!
- a Director of a listed "Blue Chip" in HK had lost billions of cash after him speculating on the Accumulator, the loss is equivalent of 50% of the "Red Chip"'s Total Assets!
- many investors still trying to "Jump Into" the market, when it is obvious the market is to fall by at least another 60-70% from its current level!
So many Liars around.
Some of them showing you Impressive Graphs of Investment Return in a Meeting Room.
Some of them showing you Impressive Knowledge of Almost Every Firm on TV.
Some of them showing you Impressive Techincs of "Predicting" Market/Share Movements in Newspaper.
Some of them........
But, All of them have the SAME and ONLY ONE Objective,
making you to be DEPENDANT ON THEM.
So that, "You take the Risk, they take Your CASH!"
An Hour a Day (checking what's going on around the world)
Keep your Money Safe ( keep these "Ripping Off Experts away!)
Fate
Greed Breeds Lies
Monday, December 15, 2008
Trust
I came home late on Saturday night, turned on the TV and switched to the Cable News Channel.
The newsboardcaster reporting a forum titled,
"How to deal with the Financial Tsunami in 2009?",
showing a quick glimpse of a so called expert (a MD of Unit trust) saying so confidently,
"According to the historical P/E, HSI at the current 15,000 points is at the "Bottom"......"
I just could NOT stop shaking my head.
Guys like these, the Faked Experts, keep Openly stating the False Conclusion because either,
- they DO think they are Right, meaning they are Incompetent;
(Price for Lehman Brothers was US$64 in 9/07 and in 9/08? It was........ 0!!! Historical P/E just a Joke!)
OR
- they DO know that they are Wrong, meaning they are Cunning!!
(So that they could make money out of you, regardless whether you win or lose!! They make sure YOU take the Risk, they take YOUR Money!!)
Then, I read the newspaper about a "Pyramid Scheme", the Biggest of its kind, operated by the Once Well Respected Ex-Chairman of (US) NASDAQ, Bernard Madoff. (Did his surname NOT giving you any Warning?)
In fact, this could be the Biggest Fraud ever - even the Japan Largest Broking Firm, Europe 2nd Largest Bank, the World's 4 Largest Bank etc. are Victims. It is believed US$50 Billion is involved.
Did I not warn you lot before,
"There is only one kind of expert in the Financial World - the Ripping Off Expert!"
"The so called experts that appearing everyday in TV, Newspaper etc. are Salepersons only!"
"Anyone trying to make you Dependant on them - Runaway from them - Runaway from them FAST!"
How one could Trust anyone has a CONFLICT OF INTEREST to manage their Hard Earned Cash is always beyond my Imagination. (NOT to mention the facts that they have NEVER met this "Expert"before, "Experts" Much Younger than them, "Experts" have Much Less Wealth than them etc.!)
Some have paid a High Price for Mistrust.
Just look at how the "I Kill You Later" (i.e. Accumulator) has done to the Billionaires!
Just listen to those having a Less Biased View:
The Chairman of the Chinese Securities Commission,
"The Damage of the current Financial Tsunami has NOT fully surfaced. The Damage so far has costed about US$7,000 Billions and the final bill could reach US$3 Trillions......."
This means ONLY about 25% Damages has surfaced.
The Economic Affairs Consultant for HSBC (also once served as the same role for the HK Government),
"Due to the current Financial Tsunami, it will probably take HK economy 5 years to recover"
Be well prepared, my Friends - the WORST has yet to come - wait after the Christmas, wait after the Chinese new Year. More Bad News to come.
Do NOT Routinely, Completely Trust ANYONE - unless they have proved themselves.
Even then, NEVER Drop your Guide, because people's Characters DO change overtime because their Circumstances constantly change overtime.
So, I could NOT tell you how honour I have been when my old friend (known for 26 years) has agreed to take on 50% of the publishing cost of my to be published book - this's a vote of Trust.
The Book is my "Payback" to the community - a Charity Project.
Fate
Be Your OWN Fund Manager
p.s. Thanks Fiona for your comment to my "Face to Face with My OWN Fate". I am glad that you have found something useful in this blog.
The newsboardcaster reporting a forum titled,
"How to deal with the Financial Tsunami in 2009?",
showing a quick glimpse of a so called expert (a MD of Unit trust) saying so confidently,
"According to the historical P/E, HSI at the current 15,000 points is at the "Bottom"......"
I just could NOT stop shaking my head.
Guys like these, the Faked Experts, keep Openly stating the False Conclusion because either,
- they DO think they are Right, meaning they are Incompetent;
(Price for Lehman Brothers was US$64 in 9/07 and in 9/08? It was........ 0!!! Historical P/E just a Joke!)
OR
- they DO know that they are Wrong, meaning they are Cunning!!
(So that they could make money out of you, regardless whether you win or lose!! They make sure YOU take the Risk, they take YOUR Money!!)
Then, I read the newspaper about a "Pyramid Scheme", the Biggest of its kind, operated by the Once Well Respected Ex-Chairman of (US) NASDAQ, Bernard Madoff. (Did his surname NOT giving you any Warning?)
In fact, this could be the Biggest Fraud ever - even the Japan Largest Broking Firm, Europe 2nd Largest Bank, the World's 4 Largest Bank etc. are Victims. It is believed US$50 Billion is involved.
Did I not warn you lot before,
"There is only one kind of expert in the Financial World - the Ripping Off Expert!"
"The so called experts that appearing everyday in TV, Newspaper etc. are Salepersons only!"
"Anyone trying to make you Dependant on them - Runaway from them - Runaway from them FAST!"
How one could Trust anyone has a CONFLICT OF INTEREST to manage their Hard Earned Cash is always beyond my Imagination. (NOT to mention the facts that they have NEVER met this "Expert"before, "Experts" Much Younger than them, "Experts" have Much Less Wealth than them etc.!)
Some have paid a High Price for Mistrust.
Just look at how the "I Kill You Later" (i.e. Accumulator) has done to the Billionaires!
Just listen to those having a Less Biased View:
The Chairman of the Chinese Securities Commission,
"The Damage of the current Financial Tsunami has NOT fully surfaced. The Damage so far has costed about US$7,000 Billions and the final bill could reach US$3 Trillions......."
This means ONLY about 25% Damages has surfaced.
The Economic Affairs Consultant for HSBC (also once served as the same role for the HK Government),
"Due to the current Financial Tsunami, it will probably take HK economy 5 years to recover"
Be well prepared, my Friends - the WORST has yet to come - wait after the Christmas, wait after the Chinese new Year. More Bad News to come.
Do NOT Routinely, Completely Trust ANYONE - unless they have proved themselves.
Even then, NEVER Drop your Guide, because people's Characters DO change overtime because their Circumstances constantly change overtime.
So, I could NOT tell you how honour I have been when my old friend (known for 26 years) has agreed to take on 50% of the publishing cost of my to be published book - this's a vote of Trust.
The Book is my "Payback" to the community - a Charity Project.
Fate
Be Your OWN Fund Manager
p.s. Thanks Fiona for your comment to my "Face to Face with My OWN Fate". I am glad that you have found something useful in this blog.
Friday, December 12, 2008
ZERO
Swiss just cut its interest rate to 0.5%.
And soon US is to be also at o.5% if not 0.25%.
Even at 0.5%, it'll be the Lowest since 1941!!
Remember when US first had its interest rate at 1% around the end of 2003?
That was (at 1%) the Lowest Rate since 1958.
That's when the current Bubble started and many people made BIG money for the following 3 years before the Sub-Prime Problem surfaced - thanks to the Exceptionally Low rate.
Now, we 're back to where we were - from interest rate point of view.
And how're you going to benefit from this time around, when the rate is Even Lower and very soon we're entering the "ZERO" Rate Era?
What should have happened in 160-year time, has been happening in the last 16 months - have you finally figured out the Best Way Forward?
Have you NOT learnt from the 97 Asian Crisis?
Have you NOT learnt from the 2001 Technology Bubble?
Have you NOT learn from 911?
Have you NOT learnt from SARS?
This time could be your LAST chance to be a Winner for the Coming Global Depression.
Your Last Chance to gain back the 50%+ Loss you have suffered so far.
Think Twice Before You Act.
Fate
Globally Thinking, Local Gaining
And soon US is to be also at o.5% if not 0.25%.
Even at 0.5%, it'll be the Lowest since 1941!!
Remember when US first had its interest rate at 1% around the end of 2003?
That was (at 1%) the Lowest Rate since 1958.
That's when the current Bubble started and many people made BIG money for the following 3 years before the Sub-Prime Problem surfaced - thanks to the Exceptionally Low rate.
Now, we 're back to where we were - from interest rate point of view.
And how're you going to benefit from this time around, when the rate is Even Lower and very soon we're entering the "ZERO" Rate Era?
What should have happened in 160-year time, has been happening in the last 16 months - have you finally figured out the Best Way Forward?
Have you NOT learnt from the 97 Asian Crisis?
Have you NOT learnt from the 2001 Technology Bubble?
Have you NOT learn from 911?
Have you NOT learnt from SARS?
This time could be your LAST chance to be a Winner for the Coming Global Depression.
Your Last Chance to gain back the 50%+ Loss you have suffered so far.
Think Twice Before You Act.
Fate
Globally Thinking, Local Gaining
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Panic Room
I never feel nervous when walking into a Conference Room to present a talk.
I never feel unease when walking into a Meeting Room to present an idea.
But, I always feel the "Pain" every time when me thinking about the Dentist Room.
Yes, that is, when NOT even being physically in the room.
Just thinking about the Dental Appointment could make me Depressed.
While waiting outside the Dentist Room, I always start visualising the "Happiness" 20 minutes later.
Yes, I always remind myself it is NOT myself sitting on the chair - it's someone else.
Or, alright it's me sitting there - but only my Body, my Mind is somewhere else. So I do NOT feel any pain.
But, for a change, for the first time in the last 12 years (?), I did NOT feel Pain during this morning Dental Appointment!
Was it because I had a New Dentist?
Was it because it was a Female Dentist - more Gentle in the "Brutal Washing"?
Or was it because she was talking while washing, distracting my attention from the "Nerve Breaking Washing Noise"?
Or was it because I've given the Best Efforts in like using Soft Head Brush, Sensitive Toothpaste, Wax, Mouth Wash etc.?
Or was it because I've prepared for the Worst (i.e to get all these Blood and Pain from the "Tooth Washing") and yet the Worst has NEVER come?
So, have you been preparing for the Worst?
Given that :
- the Yield for Short Time US Bond is 0 (on some days even Negative Rate)
- the Chinese Economy is slowing down Much Worse than expected
- the Korean Central Bank just made the Biggest Rate Cut in history,
- the Canadian Central Bank just had Rate Cut larger than most expected
- the Australian Unemployment Rate rose to its one year High
- the Banking System of HK, Australia etc. just been Downgraded etc., all these have reminded us only one thing,
"The Worst has YET to come"
Fate
Preparing For the Worst
I never feel unease when walking into a Meeting Room to present an idea.
But, I always feel the "Pain" every time when me thinking about the Dentist Room.
Yes, that is, when NOT even being physically in the room.
Just thinking about the Dental Appointment could make me Depressed.
While waiting outside the Dentist Room, I always start visualising the "Happiness" 20 minutes later.
Yes, I always remind myself it is NOT myself sitting on the chair - it's someone else.
Or, alright it's me sitting there - but only my Body, my Mind is somewhere else. So I do NOT feel any pain.
But, for a change, for the first time in the last 12 years (?), I did NOT feel Pain during this morning Dental Appointment!
Was it because I had a New Dentist?
Was it because it was a Female Dentist - more Gentle in the "Brutal Washing"?
Or was it because she was talking while washing, distracting my attention from the "Nerve Breaking Washing Noise"?
Or was it because I've given the Best Efforts in like using Soft Head Brush, Sensitive Toothpaste, Wax, Mouth Wash etc.?
Or was it because I've prepared for the Worst (i.e to get all these Blood and Pain from the "Tooth Washing") and yet the Worst has NEVER come?
So, have you been preparing for the Worst?
Given that :
- the Yield for Short Time US Bond is 0 (on some days even Negative Rate)
- the Chinese Economy is slowing down Much Worse than expected
- the Korean Central Bank just made the Biggest Rate Cut in history,
- the Canadian Central Bank just had Rate Cut larger than most expected
- the Australian Unemployment Rate rose to its one year High
- the Banking System of HK, Australia etc. just been Downgraded etc., all these have reminded us only one thing,
"The Worst has YET to come"
Fate
Preparing For the Worst
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Face to Face with MY OWN Fate
On (Sun) 7 Dec, there was a Big Crowd.
It was so Crowdy that the Police had taken Crowd Control Measures.
In fact, the Crowd was about 115,000 - yes, I was talking about the "Computer Festival".
My "Face to Face with Fate"?
Well, as expected.......................................
0!!!
Yes, Zero! None!
I had waited for 10 minutes - NOONE turned up, well, except probably a stray dog passing by!
Never Mind, this's Life - Try your Best & Prepare for the Worst.
At least I was Right - I did NOT expect anyone turning up.
During that 2 hours, I'd managed to,
- Have a snap (Gosh! I've been so tired)
- Noted down the new 12-15 Titles for the related Chapters for the to be Published (or should say, to be Completed!) New Book
- Come up with an idea to form a Partnership with my old University Mates in publishing the New Book ("Win Win" Situation?)
I always believe,
"How Successful a person is depends very much on How they handle Failures & Frustrations"
How you have been responding to the recent surge in share markets?
Have you been selling every time the markets rebound?
This could be your Last Chance.
Fate
Smiling Face changes your Fate
It was so Crowdy that the Police had taken Crowd Control Measures.
In fact, the Crowd was about 115,000 - yes, I was talking about the "Computer Festival".
My "Face to Face with Fate"?
Well, as expected.......................................
0!!!
Yes, Zero! None!
I had waited for 10 minutes - NOONE turned up, well, except probably a stray dog passing by!
Never Mind, this's Life - Try your Best & Prepare for the Worst.
At least I was Right - I did NOT expect anyone turning up.
During that 2 hours, I'd managed to,
- Have a snap (Gosh! I've been so tired)
- Noted down the new 12-15 Titles for the related Chapters for the to be Published (or should say, to be Completed!) New Book
- Come up with an idea to form a Partnership with my old University Mates in publishing the New Book ("Win Win" Situation?)
I always believe,
"How Successful a person is depends very much on How they handle Failures & Frustrations"
How you have been responding to the recent surge in share markets?
Have you been selling every time the markets rebound?
This could be your Last Chance.
Fate
Smiling Face changes your Fate
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Tomorrow Could be the Day
Tomorrow could be the Day that change your Life. (And Mine too)
You could then understand NOONE is More Qualified than yourself to look after your Own Hard Earned Cash;
You could then understand NOTHING could replace Own Hard Work;
You could then understand ANYTHING could happen in this WWIII.
With a bit of Luck, I'll see you at 1000 hrs outside the Mong Kok Police Club Tomorrow Morning. (For details, please refer to my 30 Oct blog)
Again, NO Waiting is Forever, I'll wait for 10 Minutes only. After all, Timing is Everything in Investment.
Fate
Opportunity Comes Everyday
You could then understand NOONE is More Qualified than yourself to look after your Own Hard Earned Cash;
You could then understand NOTHING could replace Own Hard Work;
You could then understand ANYTHING could happen in this WWIII.
With a bit of Luck, I'll see you at 1000 hrs outside the Mong Kok Police Club Tomorrow Morning. (For details, please refer to my 30 Oct blog)
Again, NO Waiting is Forever, I'll wait for 10 Minutes only. After all, Timing is Everything in Investment.
Fate
Opportunity Comes Everyday
Thursday, December 4, 2008
What's Your Denial?
Life is Great if everything you want Happens.
But, unfortunately Life is the other way - whatever you do NOT want often Happen!
Just like I never want to deal with a Flat Tyre.
I often pretend myself to be a "Man of Brain" and NOT a "Man of Hands"
So, I just keep convincing myself I never have to change a Flat Tyre.
But, I had to encounter the problem Three times.
"Yes, You Once, Twice, Three Times a...........................Flat Tyre."
The first one happened about 4 years ago, when me driving with my family from Auckland to Wellington. My rear tyre got a puncture, then I panicked because we're in the middle of nowhere and it's about to rain.
Thank God I got a helping hand from a passing by driver, though he did make me worried when him stopping his car and walked towards us. He looked really Rough..............but was later proved himself to be really Kind. Not only he changed my Flat Tyre within minutes, but he also gave my children sweets!
The second time was about 6 months ago, happened right outside my driveway!
My neighbour ran towards me to stop me driving, alerting me I got a Flat Tyre. So, my neighbour changed the tyre for me.
So I bought him a nice Chinese takeaway meal!!
So, I thought I was really Lucky and will continue to be Lucky - there will be NO NEED to learn how to change a Flat Tyre.
Then came the Surprise.
After leaving the local cafe and on my way to the capark 5 days ago, I noticed the rear tyre of my car was flat! Once again I was panicked - because in less than 8-hour time, I should be checking-in at the Brisbane International Airport for my HK flight!
Then came my Helper ------------- I thought.
I saw a male parking his car near mine. So I thought Luck had come to me the third time!
But when seeing him leaving his car, I was terribly disappointed - he had a plaster on his right arm!!
So, No More Escape - had to face my Own Fate - took up the Owner's Manual and start reading the Chapter, "Changing a Flat Tyre"!
It took me more than 40 minutes to read, try, scream, sw??? , a black face, a pair of black hands and a black trousers to finally complete the task - the once I thought Mission Impossible!
My wife actually came and kissed me, congratulating me, saying
"I'm so proud of you!!"
Yes, I was so proud of myself too! I did it!
I have always tried to avoid "Facing my Weakest Side".
They call it "Denial"
If you think Nothing is Possible, then think again.
If NZ could smash its biggest rate cut of 1.5% since its record began;
If Sweden could made an unprecedented rate cut of 1.75%.; and
If I could change a Flat Tyre MYSELF!
Then everything is Possible.
Is it possible for you to Face Your Own Fate - and Learn from Your Own Mistake?
What is your Denial?
Fate
Face Yourself or face the Consequences
But, unfortunately Life is the other way - whatever you do NOT want often Happen!
Just like I never want to deal with a Flat Tyre.
I often pretend myself to be a "Man of Brain" and NOT a "Man of Hands"
So, I just keep convincing myself I never have to change a Flat Tyre.
But, I had to encounter the problem Three times.
"Yes, You Once, Twice, Three Times a...........................Flat Tyre."
The first one happened about 4 years ago, when me driving with my family from Auckland to Wellington. My rear tyre got a puncture, then I panicked because we're in the middle of nowhere and it's about to rain.
Thank God I got a helping hand from a passing by driver, though he did make me worried when him stopping his car and walked towards us. He looked really Rough..............but was later proved himself to be really Kind. Not only he changed my Flat Tyre within minutes, but he also gave my children sweets!
The second time was about 6 months ago, happened right outside my driveway!
My neighbour ran towards me to stop me driving, alerting me I got a Flat Tyre. So, my neighbour changed the tyre for me.
So I bought him a nice Chinese takeaway meal!!
So, I thought I was really Lucky and will continue to be Lucky - there will be NO NEED to learn how to change a Flat Tyre.
Then came the Surprise.
After leaving the local cafe and on my way to the capark 5 days ago, I noticed the rear tyre of my car was flat! Once again I was panicked - because in less than 8-hour time, I should be checking-in at the Brisbane International Airport for my HK flight!
Then came my Helper ------------- I thought.
I saw a male parking his car near mine. So I thought Luck had come to me the third time!
But when seeing him leaving his car, I was terribly disappointed - he had a plaster on his right arm!!
So, No More Escape - had to face my Own Fate - took up the Owner's Manual and start reading the Chapter, "Changing a Flat Tyre"!
It took me more than 40 minutes to read, try, scream, sw??? , a black face, a pair of black hands and a black trousers to finally complete the task - the once I thought Mission Impossible!
My wife actually came and kissed me, congratulating me, saying
"I'm so proud of you!!"
Yes, I was so proud of myself too! I did it!
I have always tried to avoid "Facing my Weakest Side".
They call it "Denial"
If you think Nothing is Possible, then think again.
If NZ could smash its biggest rate cut of 1.5% since its record began;
If Sweden could made an unprecedented rate cut of 1.75%.; and
If I could change a Flat Tyre MYSELF!
Then everything is Possible.
Is it possible for you to Face Your Own Fate - and Learn from Your Own Mistake?
What is your Denial?
Fate
Face Yourself or face the Consequences
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Change Your Thinking
Wall St fell by about 680 points (7.7.%) overnight.
And the Reason?
"It is now Finally, Officially Confirmed US entered Recession LAST DEC!!"
Some of you had received my Email back in LAST DEC, at the time I stated,
"It was my Christmas Gift to you, reminding you US is ALREADY in Recession - how you are to protect yourself?"
Remember, Investing is all about "Thinking Ahead".
If one just waits for the Official Confirmation like this - you might have already lost 50-60% of your Wealth for failing to ACT before this WWIII!
And now even the Chinese Yuan is falling against US$ - defying the Appreciation trend since July 2005. So, what about Japanese Yen? Will it change its recent trend - being the ONLY currency keeps rising and rising against US$? How could a country that seems to have NEVER come out of Recession for the last 18 years could have such a Strong Currency?
The Reserve Bankof Australia (RBA) just made yet another 1% cut in its interest rate.
Some commentators stated back in September, once RBA starts to cut rate, the interest rate cutting cycle usually lasts for at least 2 years.
But remember, those days the rate was cut by 0.25% in one go. Whereas this time around, the rate was cut by 0.5%, 1%, 1%..... so what normally took 10 cuts (i.e. 10 months) in the past now needs only 3 cuts, so proportionally the circle should end 3 times sooner!!
And even at 4.25%, A$ is still 4.25 TIMES MORE than the US 1% rate!
Meanwhile, if one has a closer look of what the Chinese Stimulus Plan (and HK's too) offers should have noticed Big Money will be put into Building/Rebuilding "Infrastructures" (e.g. some of which into the Earthquake Effected Zone).
And Australia, being the Leading Steel, Iron, Copper etc. Exporting Country AND more closely linked to the Chinese Economy is Better Positioned than Most if not all Western Countries. (It remains the very few Western Countries that has a Positive Growth)
Do you think A$ will stay at HK$5 for long when its similar C$ is about HK6.2 at present?
If you intend to make a gain in the current "Mostly Losers" climate, you have to be "Two Steps Ahead."
To have a "New Thinking for the New Crisis."
Or insist on keeping your Old Thinking and Become Yet Another New Victim of the Never Ending WWIII.
Fate
Change Your Thinking, Change Your Fate
And the Reason?
"It is now Finally, Officially Confirmed US entered Recession LAST DEC!!"
Some of you had received my Email back in LAST DEC, at the time I stated,
"It was my Christmas Gift to you, reminding you US is ALREADY in Recession - how you are to protect yourself?"
Remember, Investing is all about "Thinking Ahead".
If one just waits for the Official Confirmation like this - you might have already lost 50-60% of your Wealth for failing to ACT before this WWIII!
And now even the Chinese Yuan is falling against US$ - defying the Appreciation trend since July 2005. So, what about Japanese Yen? Will it change its recent trend - being the ONLY currency keeps rising and rising against US$? How could a country that seems to have NEVER come out of Recession for the last 18 years could have such a Strong Currency?
The Reserve Bankof Australia (RBA) just made yet another 1% cut in its interest rate.
Some commentators stated back in September, once RBA starts to cut rate, the interest rate cutting cycle usually lasts for at least 2 years.
But remember, those days the rate was cut by 0.25% in one go. Whereas this time around, the rate was cut by 0.5%, 1%, 1%..... so what normally took 10 cuts (i.e. 10 months) in the past now needs only 3 cuts, so proportionally the circle should end 3 times sooner!!
And even at 4.25%, A$ is still 4.25 TIMES MORE than the US 1% rate!
Meanwhile, if one has a closer look of what the Chinese Stimulus Plan (and HK's too) offers should have noticed Big Money will be put into Building/Rebuilding "Infrastructures" (e.g. some of which into the Earthquake Effected Zone).
And Australia, being the Leading Steel, Iron, Copper etc. Exporting Country AND more closely linked to the Chinese Economy is Better Positioned than Most if not all Western Countries. (It remains the very few Western Countries that has a Positive Growth)
Do you think A$ will stay at HK$5 for long when its similar C$ is about HK6.2 at present?
If you intend to make a gain in the current "Mostly Losers" climate, you have to be "Two Steps Ahead."
To have a "New Thinking for the New Crisis."
Or insist on keeping your Old Thinking and Become Yet Another New Victim of the Never Ending WWIII.
Fate
Change Your Thinking, Change Your Fate
Saturday, November 29, 2008
A Reminder
Just a Courteous Reminder about the coming,
"Face to Face with Fate"
Although we have an Extremely Tight Programme in Asia, it'll be a Honour & Pleasure to meet some of you while we're in HK on (Sun) 7 Dec 2008.
(My Boys & My Boss, that is, my wife. Make no mistakes, Women are always the Boss! will mostly likely be there too)
For details, please refer to my blog dated 30 Oct.
In Life, we all have Choices and it is Your Choice.
Fate
You Decide Your Own Fate
"Face to Face with Fate"
Although we have an Extremely Tight Programme in Asia, it'll be a Honour & Pleasure to meet some of you while we're in HK on (Sun) 7 Dec 2008.
(My Boys & My Boss, that is, my wife. Make no mistakes, Women are always the Boss! will mostly likely be there too)
For details, please refer to my blog dated 30 Oct.
In Life, we all have Choices and it is Your Choice.
Fate
You Decide Your Own Fate
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Bottom?
It seems that everyday comes with more surprises.
Everyday is no longer "Normal' if there is No More "Roller Coaster" in the markets!
Britain had the biggest ever one day rise (about 10%) in its share market.
And Wall St had the biggest 2-day rise since the 80s.
Now, after Taiwan, even Japan is handing out "Vouchers", encouraging consumers to 'Spend, Spend, Spend" - to keep the economy going.
Yet, at the same time, there are More and More "Problem Banks" added onto the (US) Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., now 171 of them, Highest since 1995! And more "0" onto the US Federal Deficit!
Just when the Citi shares surged after the announcement of US Government bail out plan, the Rio Tino shares dropped by at one point over 40% in one day after the announcement of BHP giving up its take over plan!
Everything happens so Fast, so Large and yet so Extreme - from one side to the far other side!
One year ago, who would have thought the US to have a Black President?
One month ago, who would have thought Standard Chartered Bank to raise capital by offering a almost 50% discount in share price?
One week ago, who would have thought there are Two Presidents in USA?
One day ago, who would have the markets..................?
I have been asked many many times for the last few days,
"Are the share markets (in HK, US, Australia etc.......) at the Bottom?"
I have to repeat what I have been saying for the last 16 months,
"No, markets are NOT at the Bottom yet - and you have to smack your Bottom if you rush to buy without the Right Strategy and Right Mentality."
Then again, I could be Wrong.
But if I am Right, you are to join the "Financial Casualties" - even the once known as the "Middle East King of Shares", a Saudi Prince had a Paper Loss of over US$25 Billion as at last Friday!
Please keep your Money Safe.
Fate
CRASH is caused by Yourself and NO one else
Everyday is no longer "Normal' if there is No More "Roller Coaster" in the markets!
Britain had the biggest ever one day rise (about 10%) in its share market.
And Wall St had the biggest 2-day rise since the 80s.
Now, after Taiwan, even Japan is handing out "Vouchers", encouraging consumers to 'Spend, Spend, Spend" - to keep the economy going.
Yet, at the same time, there are More and More "Problem Banks" added onto the (US) Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., now 171 of them, Highest since 1995! And more "0" onto the US Federal Deficit!
Just when the Citi shares surged after the announcement of US Government bail out plan, the Rio Tino shares dropped by at one point over 40% in one day after the announcement of BHP giving up its take over plan!
Everything happens so Fast, so Large and yet so Extreme - from one side to the far other side!
One year ago, who would have thought the US to have a Black President?
One month ago, who would have thought Standard Chartered Bank to raise capital by offering a almost 50% discount in share price?
One week ago, who would have thought there are Two Presidents in USA?
One day ago, who would have the markets..................?
I have been asked many many times for the last few days,
"Are the share markets (in HK, US, Australia etc.......) at the Bottom?"
I have to repeat what I have been saying for the last 16 months,
"No, markets are NOT at the Bottom yet - and you have to smack your Bottom if you rush to buy without the Right Strategy and Right Mentality."
Then again, I could be Wrong.
But if I am Right, you are to join the "Financial Casualties" - even the once known as the "Middle East King of Shares", a Saudi Prince had a Paper Loss of over US$25 Billion as at last Friday!
Please keep your Money Safe.
Fate
CRASH is caused by Yourself and NO one else
Monday, November 24, 2008
A Story
I once read the following story.
40+ years ago, there was a Young Hardworking & Honest man.
He owned a small factory manufacturing plastic products. One day, after realising he was short of money to keep his factory going, he became very sad and squatted in front of his factory.
An elderly woman passing by and asking him what he was sad.
This Young Man told the Elderly Woman about his current financial problem. Realising the Young Man was actually living a road down from her and was convinced the Young Man was a Good Man, the Elderly Woman volunteered to lend him some money.
The Young Man was in tears, thanked the Elderly Woman, assuring her he would never forget her Kindness and would repay her one day. The following week the Elderly Woman moved to live with her daughter in another place due to her deteriorating health.
Then 5 years gone.
Then one day, the Elderly Woman returned to visit her old home.
A well dressed man was standing outside her old home, who was very pleased to address her in the most respectful manner, "Good Morning, Madam. Are you Mrs X?"
The Elderly Woman replied, "Yes."
"Madam, I have to point out that we have never met. But I was instructed to wait for you here."
"Oh, really?' The Elderly Woman replied, "How long have you been waiting for?"
"For the last 5 years, Madam."
The well dressed man then took the very surprised Elderly Woman into a luxury car, driving her to a Upper Class Suburb, showing her two luxury penthouse units with wonderful seaviews and then asked her, "Madam, which unit do you like more?"
"I'm not quire sure. They're both very very nice - it's really hard to pick one." The Elderly Woman answered.
"In that case, could I suggest you to take both then, my dear Mrs X." Another Man suddenly appeared and stated.
Yes, that "Another Man" is the Young Man that once was helped by the Elderly Woman.
He was paying back her Kindness.
One penthhouse unit for her and her family to live in and the other for her to lease out!
The Young Man later became the Richest Man in Asia, one of the Richest Persons in the world.
And his name?
Not important.
What really important are :
1) The BEST investment is NOT Shares, Houses, Gold, Forex or....... but People.
2) There are always someone we may have NEVER met before in our Life that change Our Life Completely - the Unsung Heroes.
Fate
Be Kind and Everything comes to you
40+ years ago, there was a Young Hardworking & Honest man.
He owned a small factory manufacturing plastic products. One day, after realising he was short of money to keep his factory going, he became very sad and squatted in front of his factory.
An elderly woman passing by and asking him what he was sad.
This Young Man told the Elderly Woman about his current financial problem. Realising the Young Man was actually living a road down from her and was convinced the Young Man was a Good Man, the Elderly Woman volunteered to lend him some money.
The Young Man was in tears, thanked the Elderly Woman, assuring her he would never forget her Kindness and would repay her one day. The following week the Elderly Woman moved to live with her daughter in another place due to her deteriorating health.
Then 5 years gone.
Then one day, the Elderly Woman returned to visit her old home.
A well dressed man was standing outside her old home, who was very pleased to address her in the most respectful manner, "Good Morning, Madam. Are you Mrs X?"
The Elderly Woman replied, "Yes."
"Madam, I have to point out that we have never met. But I was instructed to wait for you here."
"Oh, really?' The Elderly Woman replied, "How long have you been waiting for?"
"For the last 5 years, Madam."
The well dressed man then took the very surprised Elderly Woman into a luxury car, driving her to a Upper Class Suburb, showing her two luxury penthouse units with wonderful seaviews and then asked her, "Madam, which unit do you like more?"
"I'm not quire sure. They're both very very nice - it's really hard to pick one." The Elderly Woman answered.
"In that case, could I suggest you to take both then, my dear Mrs X." Another Man suddenly appeared and stated.
Yes, that "Another Man" is the Young Man that once was helped by the Elderly Woman.
He was paying back her Kindness.
One penthhouse unit for her and her family to live in and the other for her to lease out!
The Young Man later became the Richest Man in Asia, one of the Richest Persons in the world.
And his name?
Not important.
What really important are :
1) The BEST investment is NOT Shares, Houses, Gold, Forex or....... but People.
2) There are always someone we may have NEVER met before in our Life that change Our Life Completely - the Unsung Heroes.
Fate
Be Kind and Everything comes to you
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Biggest Risk
Here we go again.
Everything is on Free Fall - again.
Wall ST fell by over 5% overnight - closing at below 8,000 mark as per my expectation - the Lowest so far in the current WWIII.
Even the Australian's S&P/AS200 dropped to 3,365 at the last check - that is over 50% drop from last Nov Peak.
The CPI in US fell by 1% in Oct - the Biggest Drop since the record started back in 1947!!
Now, everyone starts thinking about the word "Deflation" - moving forward from the word "Recession" and of course everyone also knows too well about the word "Depression" - Depressed every day waking up to see yet another Low!
Even Citi Group dropped by 23% in yesterday - yes, in ONE DAY!
And yes, even the Pirates (though NOT of the Caribbean) are back! Everything is Possible NOW!
Then again, remember what Investment is all about?
Investment is about "Managing/Minimising Risks"
So, where exactly are the Risks coming from?
From NOT "Diversifying" your Portfolio?
From NOT getting "Professional" advice?
From NOT investing for "Long Term"?
From............
NO. NONE of the above.
The Greatest Risk coming from............................
YOU!!!
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Share Money is Easy Money!!
(One could only wish Life is that Sweet - NO more Pressusring from Boss, Shouting from Customers and Buck Passing from colleagues!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Once you know the "Graph/Wave" Techinics, you will then know the Secrets to make Millions!!
(The Top 5 Wall St Investment Banks ALL have the SAME Super computers, SAME 1st Class Graduates, SAME 24-hour Working Hours etc. - and yet they all in BIG Troubles with 2 gone Bust, one sold itself to a Proper Bank and 2 rushed to become Proper Banks!!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed the "Professionals" are Real experts AND they will look after your Interests!!
(There is ONLY one kind of expert, Ripping Off expert! And they ONLY look after their OWN interest - the Management Fee or should I say, their Commission - they are ONLY Sales!!)
Do I have to go on?
The ONLY way to Minimise the Greatest Risk is to Invest in YOURSELF!
Fate
Best Investment in Life is "People"
Everything is on Free Fall - again.
Wall ST fell by over 5% overnight - closing at below 8,000 mark as per my expectation - the Lowest so far in the current WWIII.
Even the Australian's S&P/AS200 dropped to 3,365 at the last check - that is over 50% drop from last Nov Peak.
The CPI in US fell by 1% in Oct - the Biggest Drop since the record started back in 1947!!
Now, everyone starts thinking about the word "Deflation" - moving forward from the word "Recession" and of course everyone also knows too well about the word "Depression" - Depressed every day waking up to see yet another Low!
Even Citi Group dropped by 23% in yesterday - yes, in ONE DAY!
And yes, even the Pirates (though NOT of the Caribbean) are back! Everything is Possible NOW!
Then again, remember what Investment is all about?
Investment is about "Managing/Minimising Risks"
So, where exactly are the Risks coming from?
From NOT "Diversifying" your Portfolio?
From NOT getting "Professional" advice?
From NOT investing for "Long Term"?
From............
NO. NONE of the above.
The Greatest Risk coming from............................
YOU!!!
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Share Money is Easy Money!!
(One could only wish Life is that Sweet - NO more Pressusring from Boss, Shouting from Customers and Buck Passing from colleagues!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed Once you know the "Graph/Wave" Techinics, you will then know the Secrets to make Millions!!
(The Top 5 Wall St Investment Banks ALL have the SAME Super computers, SAME 1st Class Graduates, SAME 24-hour Working Hours etc. - and yet they all in BIG Troubles with 2 gone Bust, one sold itself to a Proper Bank and 2 rushed to become Proper Banks!!)
Because you have Wrongly Assumed the "Professionals" are Real experts AND they will look after your Interests!!
(There is ONLY one kind of expert, Ripping Off expert! And they ONLY look after their OWN interest - the Management Fee or should I say, their Commission - they are ONLY Sales!!)
Do I have to go on?
The ONLY way to Minimise the Greatest Risk is to Invest in YOURSELF!
Fate
Best Investment in Life is "People"
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Funny
It is funny to see some recent Headlines.
"China is to implement its Biggest Economic Stimulus Plan"
Yes, it is Huge in Numerical term - RMB$ 4 Trillion, US$586 Billion.
Let's look at the figure in another way.
There are 1.3 Billion people in China.
So, it would be about US$450 ONLY Per Person!!
"Japan, the World's 2nd Largest Economy, is now in Recession"
Sorry, I always think Japan has NEVER come out of Recession since its bubble burst in late80/early 90!
Some property still losing about 50% of it peak value after 18 years!
I was once told Japan had 3 Recessions in the 90s!! This explains why its interest rate is always c lose to 0%!!
Even its World's No.1 Car Maker, Toyota is speculated to lose its AAA rating.
"G20 Summit is discussing the Current Global Crisis"
Yes, ONLY discussing and NOT actually solving the problems!
After all, G20 has indeed reminded me "G2000" - the HK clothing retailer - Both are for Good Looking ONLY!
"UBS, the Swiss Banking Giant, is to follow Goldman Sach to suspend Bonus Payment to the Management"
Why are the Greedy Executives being paid for Taking Greater Risk for their OWN Greater Bonuses? And it's everyone else other than these Cunning Executives to foot the Giantic Bills when things go wrong?
The Rumour stated the reason why US Government NOT rescuing the Lehman was because its Board still proposing a "10 Million Bonus for Executives" on its book when begging for Public Money!
"Citi Group is to shed another 52,000 Job"
One may wonder why it needs so many staff from the start? To "Hard Sell" Sub-Prime related products?
And of course the Quickest Way to ensure "Profit" is soon on the horizon is to fire frontliners, saving for example, US$20 Million in cost and..............yes, to pay for the US$10 Million CEO's Pay Package!
It's NOT Funny that Wall St fell over 2.6% overnight, getting closer once again to the 8,000 Mark and Australian Market is at its New 4-year Low.
It's LEAST Funny to see More Roller Coaster Ride in days ahead!
Fate
Never Lose your Sense of Humour or to Lose Your Future
"China is to implement its Biggest Economic Stimulus Plan"
Yes, it is Huge in Numerical term - RMB$ 4 Trillion, US$586 Billion.
Let's look at the figure in another way.
There are 1.3 Billion people in China.
So, it would be about US$450 ONLY Per Person!!
"Japan, the World's 2nd Largest Economy, is now in Recession"
Sorry, I always think Japan has NEVER come out of Recession since its bubble burst in late80/early 90!
Some property still losing about 50% of it peak value after 18 years!
I was once told Japan had 3 Recessions in the 90s!! This explains why its interest rate is always c lose to 0%!!
Even its World's No.1 Car Maker, Toyota is speculated to lose its AAA rating.
"G20 Summit is discussing the Current Global Crisis"
Yes, ONLY discussing and NOT actually solving the problems!
After all, G20 has indeed reminded me "G2000" - the HK clothing retailer - Both are for Good Looking ONLY!
"UBS, the Swiss Banking Giant, is to follow Goldman Sach to suspend Bonus Payment to the Management"
Why are the Greedy Executives being paid for Taking Greater Risk for their OWN Greater Bonuses? And it's everyone else other than these Cunning Executives to foot the Giantic Bills when things go wrong?
The Rumour stated the reason why US Government NOT rescuing the Lehman was because its Board still proposing a "10 Million Bonus for Executives" on its book when begging for Public Money!
"Citi Group is to shed another 52,000 Job"
One may wonder why it needs so many staff from the start? To "Hard Sell" Sub-Prime related products?
And of course the Quickest Way to ensure "Profit" is soon on the horizon is to fire frontliners, saving for example, US$20 Million in cost and..............yes, to pay for the US$10 Million CEO's Pay Package!
It's NOT Funny that Wall St fell over 2.6% overnight, getting closer once again to the 8,000 Mark and Australian Market is at its New 4-year Low.
It's LEAST Funny to see More Roller Coaster Ride in days ahead!
Fate
Never Lose your Sense of Humour or to Lose Your Future
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Be HONEST
Did I not say, "The Worst is NOT over"?
Have you been selling your shares everytime when there is a Rebound to cut further loss?
Wall St dropped by another 3.82% on Friday - and once dropped below the 8,000 mark during the week. Australian market is now at 4 -year Low - and Both will be Much LOWER soon like many other markets.
Did I NOT say in last Dec by sending an E Mail to some of you, "US (& Europe) is ALREADY in Recession."?
Have you been listening to me to protect your hard earned cash?
After NZ, Ireland, Germany (the Europe Largest Economy) is now "officially' (i.e. many knew this months ago) in Recession, and joining the R-Club is Italy! And the 15-Member EuroZone is also in Recession. And US and UK are soon to be "officially" in Recession!
Just look at the figures.
36,500 being laid off in UK last month, that is, 1 worker being fired every 75 seconds!
In US, just the last two months alone, there were half a million workers being laid off - and there are now about 10 Million Unemployed in US!
In US, Retail Sales dropped by 2.8% in October - First such big drop since 92!
And the two US mortgage giants being recently Nationalised by US Government had a total quarterly loss of over US$54 Billions!
And the once seems to be quick safe Technology sector is also feeling the heat now - the Sun Microsystem just announced to cut 15% of its workforce!
Even the Legendary Investor, Warren Buffete, his flagship recently announced result - lost 77% in revenue!
Do you really wish to know the current Federal Budget Deficit figure?
Alright, it is over, hope I have not missed out one "0" - US$1,000,000,000,000!!
And if anyone thinks that my Buying Price for HSBC is unrealistic low, think again.
The once World's Largest Bank, the Citi group, its share price dropped by 68% so far this year making its the Third Biggest Drop share amongst the DJIA (just behind GM) And its share price of US$9.45 is at 12-year Low!
Some of you may be regretting for NOT listening to my Warning back then.
I would not blame you - I am NOBODY - why did you have to trust me back then?
I am NOT a Billionaire, NOT a Reputable Investment Banker, NOT a Hedge Fund Star, NOT a Host in a Popular TV/Radio programme, basically NOT one with a Proven Investment Record etc.....
But remember this is NOT about me - it's all about YOU!
Have you been Honest to Yourself?
Have you been Realistic about YOUR Own Investment?
Have you been Admitting Making Mistakes?
Different People take the SAME Advice differently.
Some may just ignore it all together because this is NOT what they want to hear.
Some may think there is a Point but are not bother to act on it.
Some may take it seriously but never find the time to act.
Some just go and ACT.
Remember, there is always a chance someone saying one sentence that may change/might have changed your Life - change your Life FOREVER.
I had that experience 28 years ago but.............I now cannot even remember his name!
My name is .................NOT important, make sure you know your Investment Goal,
Keep your Capital.
Fate
Be Honest to Yourself
Have you been selling your shares everytime when there is a Rebound to cut further loss?
Wall St dropped by another 3.82% on Friday - and once dropped below the 8,000 mark during the week. Australian market is now at 4 -year Low - and Both will be Much LOWER soon like many other markets.
Did I NOT say in last Dec by sending an E Mail to some of you, "US (& Europe) is ALREADY in Recession."?
Have you been listening to me to protect your hard earned cash?
After NZ, Ireland, Germany (the Europe Largest Economy) is now "officially' (i.e. many knew this months ago) in Recession, and joining the R-Club is Italy! And the 15-Member EuroZone is also in Recession. And US and UK are soon to be "officially" in Recession!
Just look at the figures.
36,500 being laid off in UK last month, that is, 1 worker being fired every 75 seconds!
In US, just the last two months alone, there were half a million workers being laid off - and there are now about 10 Million Unemployed in US!
In US, Retail Sales dropped by 2.8% in October - First such big drop since 92!
And the two US mortgage giants being recently Nationalised by US Government had a total quarterly loss of over US$54 Billions!
And the once seems to be quick safe Technology sector is also feeling the heat now - the Sun Microsystem just announced to cut 15% of its workforce!
Even the Legendary Investor, Warren Buffete, his flagship recently announced result - lost 77% in revenue!
Do you really wish to know the current Federal Budget Deficit figure?
Alright, it is over, hope I have not missed out one "0" - US$1,000,000,000,000!!
And if anyone thinks that my Buying Price for HSBC is unrealistic low, think again.
The once World's Largest Bank, the Citi group, its share price dropped by 68% so far this year making its the Third Biggest Drop share amongst the DJIA (just behind GM) And its share price of US$9.45 is at 12-year Low!
Some of you may be regretting for NOT listening to my Warning back then.
I would not blame you - I am NOBODY - why did you have to trust me back then?
I am NOT a Billionaire, NOT a Reputable Investment Banker, NOT a Hedge Fund Star, NOT a Host in a Popular TV/Radio programme, basically NOT one with a Proven Investment Record etc.....
But remember this is NOT about me - it's all about YOU!
Have you been Honest to Yourself?
Have you been Realistic about YOUR Own Investment?
Have you been Admitting Making Mistakes?
Different People take the SAME Advice differently.
Some may just ignore it all together because this is NOT what they want to hear.
Some may think there is a Point but are not bother to act on it.
Some may take it seriously but never find the time to act.
Some just go and ACT.
Remember, there is always a chance someone saying one sentence that may change/might have changed your Life - change your Life FOREVER.
I had that experience 28 years ago but.............I now cannot even remember his name!
My name is .................NOT important, make sure you know your Investment Goal,
Keep your Capital.
Fate
Be Honest to Yourself
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
How Deep
One of my favourite songs is, "How Deep is Your Love".
But one of the most favourite topics in the global finance now is,
"How Deep is US's Recession?"
So, let's all go back to the Staring Point of this current WWIII - US.
Now, not only the financial sector, autocar sector etc. (and soon retail sector and airline sector) are knocking on the doors of the US Government, even the law firms are collapsing, some of them have been around for decades, few of them were once in the most profitable hundreds and very few of them even were once International Big firms. They just collapsed outright.
And there are 50% rise in corporate bankruptcies (now at over 18,400) for the first six months of this year when compared with the same period last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12law.html?_r=l&ref=business&oref=slogin
And the housing market just got worse because the house value continues to fall - even some bought them quite recently at what appeared to be bargain prices. Some smaller towns are having an Unemployment Rate already over 10%!
It is estimated about 25% of house with mortgage in US (i.e. about 9.7 million homes) are either "Underwater" (i.e. Negative Equity) or "Within Striking Distance of becoming one"! More and more people are now cutting expenditures, spending more time at home!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/business/11home.html?ref=business
And Wall St dropped by about 2% overnight, with GM dropped to US$2.90, a 65-year-low!! An analyst just downgraded it to "Sell", claiming its Target Price will be - have a guess?
Target Price will be...........
Yes....$0!!
So, if anyone thinks that my Target Buying Prices for HSBC are too Low, think Again - they have not seen the real effects of this current WWIII have on the share prices YET!
Even the Merrill Lynch Chairperson and CEO has finally joined a few Visionary Investors in stressing the current Recession could only be compared with the one in 1929!! He also reminded others the current Recession is "Contracting Sharply."
www.ft.com/cms/s/o/834ebf5e-aff9-11dd-a795-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
I believe not only the current WWII would result in a Sharp recession but also a Prolonged One.
So, please do NOT Rush to Buy YET.
Fate
Rushing is Regretting
But one of the most favourite topics in the global finance now is,
"How Deep is US's Recession?"
So, let's all go back to the Staring Point of this current WWIII - US.
Now, not only the financial sector, autocar sector etc. (and soon retail sector and airline sector) are knocking on the doors of the US Government, even the law firms are collapsing, some of them have been around for decades, few of them were once in the most profitable hundreds and very few of them even were once International Big firms. They just collapsed outright.
And there are 50% rise in corporate bankruptcies (now at over 18,400) for the first six months of this year when compared with the same period last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12law.html?_r=l&ref=business&oref=slogin
And the housing market just got worse because the house value continues to fall - even some bought them quite recently at what appeared to be bargain prices. Some smaller towns are having an Unemployment Rate already over 10%!
It is estimated about 25% of house with mortgage in US (i.e. about 9.7 million homes) are either "Underwater" (i.e. Negative Equity) or "Within Striking Distance of becoming one"! More and more people are now cutting expenditures, spending more time at home!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/business/11home.html?ref=business
And Wall St dropped by about 2% overnight, with GM dropped to US$2.90, a 65-year-low!! An analyst just downgraded it to "Sell", claiming its Target Price will be - have a guess?
Target Price will be...........
Yes....$0!!
So, if anyone thinks that my Target Buying Prices for HSBC are too Low, think Again - they have not seen the real effects of this current WWIII have on the share prices YET!
Even the Merrill Lynch Chairperson and CEO has finally joined a few Visionary Investors in stressing the current Recession could only be compared with the one in 1929!! He also reminded others the current Recession is "Contracting Sharply."
www.ft.com/cms/s/o/834ebf5e-aff9-11dd-a795-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
I believe not only the current WWII would result in a Sharp recession but also a Prolonged One.
So, please do NOT Rush to Buy YET.
Fate
Rushing is Regretting
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Simple
I've been extremely busy for the last two weeks.
Amongst other things, I'd been climbing up mountains of obstacles in trying to upgrade/open Premier accounts with HSBC. At last I got there.
In Life, what normally seen as "Simple" very often turns out to be Much More Complicated.
A Simple Rule in share (or in fact, EVERY) investment,
"Buy Low, Sell High"
So Easy to understand and yet So Hard to Implement.
How come so many people have been doing the Exact Opposite for the last 16 months?
Ask yourself,
Why do you have to invest NOW (back then)?
Even in Australia, had one been Patient, s/he would have got the Rewards by now.
The SAME amount of money now buys MORE.
I read the newspaper yesterday (http://www.thedaily.com.au/), reporting the Carpenters, used to charge A$45-60 an hour (then pay them another 2-hour rate on travelling!) now accepting A$30-35 an hour! That's a drop of over 30%!!
This mean you have a 30% GAIN by doing NOTHING for the last year!!
Better than your rushing to buy still "Under Water" shares?
The Global Economy, according to the World bank, has for the 1st time in 27 years, CONTRACTED!
It's so Simple to see we're in Big Trouble - Globally, Locally.
Fate
Do the Simplest Thing - WAIT
Amongst other things, I'd been climbing up mountains of obstacles in trying to upgrade/open Premier accounts with HSBC. At last I got there.
In Life, what normally seen as "Simple" very often turns out to be Much More Complicated.
A Simple Rule in share (or in fact, EVERY) investment,
"Buy Low, Sell High"
So Easy to understand and yet So Hard to Implement.
How come so many people have been doing the Exact Opposite for the last 16 months?
Ask yourself,
Why do you have to invest NOW (back then)?
Even in Australia, had one been Patient, s/he would have got the Rewards by now.
The SAME amount of money now buys MORE.
I read the newspaper yesterday (http://www.thedaily.com.au/), reporting the Carpenters, used to charge A$45-60 an hour (then pay them another 2-hour rate on travelling!) now accepting A$30-35 an hour! That's a drop of over 30%!!
This mean you have a 30% GAIN by doing NOTHING for the last year!!
Better than your rushing to buy still "Under Water" shares?
The Global Economy, according to the World bank, has for the 1st time in 27 years, CONTRACTED!
It's so Simple to see we're in Big Trouble - Globally, Locally.
Fate
Do the Simplest Thing - WAIT
Saturday, November 8, 2008
New President, Old Problems
The Positive Effects on the global share markets after a Positive New US President been selected was shorlived.
On Wed & Thur, Wall ST fell by a total of about 10% - this could have triggered off a Massive 1-day 23% drop like it did in 87 - the Black Monday. Luckily, it rose by 2.85% on Friday, on rumours that Federal Reserve has to cut rate again and the US Government is to bail out the Autocar industry.
Given that the US Rate is already at 1%, the Lowest since 1958, how much Lower could it be - or How Effective will a Lower Rate actually change things? The Rate is now back to late 2003 level, which was blamed by most commentators as the Root Cause of the Current Bubble - Cheap Money.
Now, one of the Biggest Employer in US is in Deep Trouble, the Autocar industry - together they directly employ 3 Million workers - imagine they all join the "Dole Queue"? And the Indirected Employed workers also in Millions! The three big names, GM, Ford and Chrysler need Big Cash to survive, Need Money NOW.
How much Spare Cash the US Government has? Or to print?
So what other industries it has to save after the Banking, Insurance, now, the Autocar.....?? the Airline, the Retail.....?
US Unemployment Rate is at 6.5%, rose from 6.1% - the Highest since 1994 - did I not say in my previous blog about "Higher Unemployment."? It will rise Higher and Higher - Everywhere.
UK had its shocking 1.5% rate cut on Thursday, making its Base Rate now at 3%, the Lowest since 1955 - and the Biggest Cut since BOE took over the Interest Rate Cut decision since 1997. The reasons?
UK House Price dropped by 2.2% in October when compared with September, making the Annual House Price drop of 15%! And IMF released its outlook for UK on the same day, predicting the UK Economy Growth is to Shrink by 1.3% in 2009! Worse than US, Worse than Euro Zone!
Australia had another 0.75% drop On Tuesday, 2% has been cut so far, making its Base Rate at 5.25%, the Lowest in 2 1/2 years. Still, the current Global Slowdown has made a A$40 Billion Hole in its Federal Budget!
And its Biggest Childcare Provider, the ABC learning, with 1,200 centres in Australia employing over 16,000 staff has finally collapsed - Administrator called in days ago. The Once darling of the Share Market now vanished, leaving the Government to rush putting in an A$22 Million temporary assistance package. The Lesson?
Never Overstretch Yourself.
ABC Learning BORROWED TOO MUCH! And TOO Optimistic!
Are you making the Same Mistake,
Overestimate the Income by 20% AND Underestimate the Expenditures by 20%?
Leaving yourself 40%+ BIG HOLE!
IMF has just pointed out the economies of the Industrial Countries are Shrinking - the First time since WWII - except Australia, which it is seen to have growth at 1.8%, though Our Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd insisting it should be 2.x%!
In short, the US Economy will GET WORSE.
So will the global share markets!
And everytime there is a rebound, remember to SELL!
Keep CASH- CASH is no longer King - CASH IS NOW GOD!
Fate
Never Lose Focus - Or Lose Your Cash
On Wed & Thur, Wall ST fell by a total of about 10% - this could have triggered off a Massive 1-day 23% drop like it did in 87 - the Black Monday. Luckily, it rose by 2.85% on Friday, on rumours that Federal Reserve has to cut rate again and the US Government is to bail out the Autocar industry.
Given that the US Rate is already at 1%, the Lowest since 1958, how much Lower could it be - or How Effective will a Lower Rate actually change things? The Rate is now back to late 2003 level, which was blamed by most commentators as the Root Cause of the Current Bubble - Cheap Money.
Now, one of the Biggest Employer in US is in Deep Trouble, the Autocar industry - together they directly employ 3 Million workers - imagine they all join the "Dole Queue"? And the Indirected Employed workers also in Millions! The three big names, GM, Ford and Chrysler need Big Cash to survive, Need Money NOW.
How much Spare Cash the US Government has? Or to print?
So what other industries it has to save after the Banking, Insurance, now, the Autocar.....?? the Airline, the Retail.....?
US Unemployment Rate is at 6.5%, rose from 6.1% - the Highest since 1994 - did I not say in my previous blog about "Higher Unemployment."? It will rise Higher and Higher - Everywhere.
UK had its shocking 1.5% rate cut on Thursday, making its Base Rate now at 3%, the Lowest since 1955 - and the Biggest Cut since BOE took over the Interest Rate Cut decision since 1997. The reasons?
UK House Price dropped by 2.2% in October when compared with September, making the Annual House Price drop of 15%! And IMF released its outlook for UK on the same day, predicting the UK Economy Growth is to Shrink by 1.3% in 2009! Worse than US, Worse than Euro Zone!
Australia had another 0.75% drop On Tuesday, 2% has been cut so far, making its Base Rate at 5.25%, the Lowest in 2 1/2 years. Still, the current Global Slowdown has made a A$40 Billion Hole in its Federal Budget!
And its Biggest Childcare Provider, the ABC learning, with 1,200 centres in Australia employing over 16,000 staff has finally collapsed - Administrator called in days ago. The Once darling of the Share Market now vanished, leaving the Government to rush putting in an A$22 Million temporary assistance package. The Lesson?
Never Overstretch Yourself.
ABC Learning BORROWED TOO MUCH! And TOO Optimistic!
Are you making the Same Mistake,
Overestimate the Income by 20% AND Underestimate the Expenditures by 20%?
Leaving yourself 40%+ BIG HOLE!
IMF has just pointed out the economies of the Industrial Countries are Shrinking - the First time since WWII - except Australia, which it is seen to have growth at 1.8%, though Our Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd insisting it should be 2.x%!
In short, the US Economy will GET WORSE.
So will the global share markets!
And everytime there is a rebound, remember to SELL!
Keep CASH- CASH is no longer King - CASH IS NOW GOD!
Fate
Never Lose Focus - Or Lose Your Cash
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Why Rush?
About 18 months ago, many many HK people were rushing to invest - thanks to the daily "Brain Washing" in the newspapers, radio talk show, TV financial programmes. All these so called "Experts" kept scaring small investors,
"Inflation is eating into your savings."
"How could you beat the 0.01% interest rate on your saving accounts?"
With the benefit of hindsight, you can now take a breathe and assess what Damages have been done after taking the advice of the above "Experts" to your Pockets!
You are good if you are losing 30% - many are losing 50% and some losing over 70%!!
And the reason was : They thought they HAD to invest!!
As mentioned in my E Mail sent to several parents back in Aug 2007 (i.e. 15 months ago)
"One does NOT have to do anything can still make a Good Return."
Because when the Recession arrives, your SAME amount of money WILL buy More.
It's the ACTUAL Buying Power and NOT the Nominal Value of your Money that matters.
Also, after passing their Record High in July 2008, Petrol, Gold, A$, NZ$, Sterling Pounds, other Commodities etc., they have dropped at least over 30% - but now you have NO money to capitalise this Great Opportunity! Same to the shares markets, even Blue Chips could rise and fall over 20% in a day!
So, what was the Rush?
Remember, there is AT LEAST One Opportunity Every 10 years.
Remember, Rushing to Buy is Rushing to "Bye" - saying "Bye" to your Hard Earned Cash!
Fate
Keep Your Capital
"Inflation is eating into your savings."
"How could you beat the 0.01% interest rate on your saving accounts?"
With the benefit of hindsight, you can now take a breathe and assess what Damages have been done after taking the advice of the above "Experts" to your Pockets!
You are good if you are losing 30% - many are losing 50% and some losing over 70%!!
And the reason was : They thought they HAD to invest!!
As mentioned in my E Mail sent to several parents back in Aug 2007 (i.e. 15 months ago)
"One does NOT have to do anything can still make a Good Return."
Because when the Recession arrives, your SAME amount of money WILL buy More.
It's the ACTUAL Buying Power and NOT the Nominal Value of your Money that matters.
Also, after passing their Record High in July 2008, Petrol, Gold, A$, NZ$, Sterling Pounds, other Commodities etc., they have dropped at least over 30% - but now you have NO money to capitalise this Great Opportunity! Same to the shares markets, even Blue Chips could rise and fall over 20% in a day!
So, what was the Rush?
Remember, there is AT LEAST One Opportunity Every 10 years.
Remember, Rushing to Buy is Rushing to "Bye" - saying "Bye" to your Hard Earned Cash!
Fate
Keep Your Capital
Thursday, October 30, 2008
FACE TO FACE WITH FATE
What normally takes 80 years to happen in the Global Financial Markets have happened in the last 18 months!
This is a Steep Learning Curve for ALL and Steep Losing Cost for Most.
Let's all :
Learn from the Past,
Change Our Future.
I therefore would like to share with you what I've learnt IN PERSON and hopefully, you're to share with me what you've learnt from this WWIII.
I'm to return to HK by the end of Nov and stay for 2 months for family reason/a holiday.
Date : (Sun) 7 December 2008
Time : 1000-1200 hrs
Venue : Mong Kok Police Recreation Club (Sai Yeung Choi Street North)
Prince Edward MTR Station Exit A
http://www.mtr.com.hk/jplanner/images/maps/pre.gif
Cost : Yes, because NOTHING is FREE in Life.
But you do NOT pay me.
PLEASE BRING A RECEIPT SHOWING A HK$18 DONATION HAS BEEN MADE.
Remarks :
As stated before, Investment is MOSTLY about Luck - Luck is 60%.
And Luck can be Accumulated by Being Kind to Others.
So, you're paying for YOURSELF - Be Kind, then one may not have Good Luck Everytime but Bad Luck will be kept away Most of the Times.
See if I've any Luck in Meeting some of you and Learning from you.
Fate
Everyone is a Teacher
This is a Steep Learning Curve for ALL and Steep Losing Cost for Most.
Let's all :
Learn from the Past,
Change Our Future.
I therefore would like to share with you what I've learnt IN PERSON and hopefully, you're to share with me what you've learnt from this WWIII.
I'm to return to HK by the end of Nov and stay for 2 months for family reason/a holiday.
Date : (Sun) 7 December 2008
Time : 1000-1200 hrs
Venue : Mong Kok Police Recreation Club (Sai Yeung Choi Street North)
Prince Edward MTR Station Exit A
http://www.mtr.com.hk/jplanner/images/maps/pre.gif
Cost : Yes, because NOTHING is FREE in Life.
But you do NOT pay me.
PLEASE BRING A RECEIPT SHOWING A HK$18 DONATION HAS BEEN MADE.
Remarks :
As stated before, Investment is MOSTLY about Luck - Luck is 60%.
And Luck can be Accumulated by Being Kind to Others.
So, you're paying for YOURSELF - Be Kind, then one may not have Good Luck Everytime but Bad Luck will be kept away Most of the Times.
See if I've any Luck in Meeting some of you and Learning from you.
Fate
Everyone is a Teacher
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Be the Minority
Wall St has one Big Gain,
But, then again, this's NOT a Game;
It's Time to SELL and NOT to Buy,
Or you're to Kiss your Money Goodbye;
Big Crocodiles want you to Die,
So that they could all get High.
My Friend, please regain your Common Sense,
Or you're to lose Every Cent;
Be Patient or be a Heart Attack Patient,
As the Greatest CRASH soon gets your Attention.
Fate
Be the Minority - Be a Winner
But, then again, this's NOT a Game;
It's Time to SELL and NOT to Buy,
Or you're to Kiss your Money Goodbye;
Big Crocodiles want you to Die,
So that they could all get High.
My Friend, please regain your Common Sense,
Or you're to lose Every Cent;
Be Patient or be a Heart Attack Patient,
As the Greatest CRASH soon gets your Attention.
Fate
Be the Minority - Be a Winner
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Plan B
In Life, one should always have Plan B.
After liaising with my HSBC bank in Britain, I now realise there are some technical difficulties to buy HSBC share in Sterling Pound from the London Stock Exchange - simply because I am now NOT in Britain!
While trying to overcome the obstacles, I now have a Plan B by taking advantage of my Another Circumstance - I am now in Australia, utlising my HSBC AUS Premier A/C.
I now serious consider buying share of an Australian Giant, the World's Largest Mining Firm, BHP.
First, it is always better and especially in the current climax to buy the Biggest - because there are more potentail big players coming on board or even the Governement has to come to rescue if the Biggest struggles or fails.
Second, the A$ is at a 5 1/2 year Low.
So, I could gain from BOTH the Rise in the Share Price and the Exchange Rate in 1-2 year time.
Have to examine the price trend and the future prospects of BHP first before setting the buying targets.
Also, given that the NZ$, A$ and Sterling Pounds are at a 5-6 year Low, one may consider buying properties therein if their house price falls further - again, to make gain from BOTH the Rise of House Price and Exchange Rate. Also, some parents may wish to send their children to those countries for Higher Education in the near future.
Did I NOT say "Dramatic" and Anythinhg could Happen?
After the Largest Fall in the world yesterday, HK HSI had the Largest Gain today - a stunning 14.35%! The Once "Big Elephant" HSBC flied like a bird - jumping 20% in a day after losing 15% in a day only last Friday!
Just a reminder, back in Aug 98, HSBC was at HK$49.50 ONLY !!
And as at Yesterday, the HSI dropped by 67% from its Height, whereas in 87 CRASH it dropped 52% from its Height and 97 CRASH dropped 61% from its Height.
How much further the current "Once in a Century" Crisis, with NO end in sight, will force the market to fall? (The 73 CRASH fell by 91%)
Back in July 2007, I hinted HSI to fall to at least to SARS Level - 8,000 points, when in fact, I believed it would fall much lower than that - now you know it's around 4,000 points. I did not say this back then because noone would believe me at the time, - and noone would take my Warning seriously. (The same applied to the HSBC price I hinted at HK$80, when I believed it would fall further)
As stated before, if anyone is Brave enough + Energetic enough + Quick enough........, they could make some good profit Today.
But, then again, this's EXACTLY the reason why people losing BIG money - because they've made some good money so Easily in the first place, they've become so Confident and start putting more money in. It is by then the BIG Mistake is made.
Investment, after all, is mostly about LUCK.
(Luck is 60% and anything else is 40%)
And if one has used up their Luck in making Small Gain, they're to suffer Huge Loss eventually!
Remember, this is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL NOT Buy.
Save your Breathe for the Greatest CRASH!
Fate
None Has ALL the Luck ALL the Times
After liaising with my HSBC bank in Britain, I now realise there are some technical difficulties to buy HSBC share in Sterling Pound from the London Stock Exchange - simply because I am now NOT in Britain!
While trying to overcome the obstacles, I now have a Plan B by taking advantage of my Another Circumstance - I am now in Australia, utlising my HSBC AUS Premier A/C.
I now serious consider buying share of an Australian Giant, the World's Largest Mining Firm, BHP.
First, it is always better and especially in the current climax to buy the Biggest - because there are more potentail big players coming on board or even the Governement has to come to rescue if the Biggest struggles or fails.
Second, the A$ is at a 5 1/2 year Low.
So, I could gain from BOTH the Rise in the Share Price and the Exchange Rate in 1-2 year time.
Have to examine the price trend and the future prospects of BHP first before setting the buying targets.
Also, given that the NZ$, A$ and Sterling Pounds are at a 5-6 year Low, one may consider buying properties therein if their house price falls further - again, to make gain from BOTH the Rise of House Price and Exchange Rate. Also, some parents may wish to send their children to those countries for Higher Education in the near future.
Did I NOT say "Dramatic" and Anythinhg could Happen?
After the Largest Fall in the world yesterday, HK HSI had the Largest Gain today - a stunning 14.35%! The Once "Big Elephant" HSBC flied like a bird - jumping 20% in a day after losing 15% in a day only last Friday!
Just a reminder, back in Aug 98, HSBC was at HK$49.50 ONLY !!
And as at Yesterday, the HSI dropped by 67% from its Height, whereas in 87 CRASH it dropped 52% from its Height and 97 CRASH dropped 61% from its Height.
How much further the current "Once in a Century" Crisis, with NO end in sight, will force the market to fall? (The 73 CRASH fell by 91%)
Back in July 2007, I hinted HSI to fall to at least to SARS Level - 8,000 points, when in fact, I believed it would fall much lower than that - now you know it's around 4,000 points. I did not say this back then because noone would believe me at the time, - and noone would take my Warning seriously. (The same applied to the HSBC price I hinted at HK$80, when I believed it would fall further)
As stated before, if anyone is Brave enough + Energetic enough + Quick enough........, they could make some good profit Today.
But, then again, this's EXACTLY the reason why people losing BIG money - because they've made some good money so Easily in the first place, they've become so Confident and start putting more money in. It is by then the BIG Mistake is made.
Investment, after all, is mostly about LUCK.
(Luck is 60% and anything else is 40%)
And if one has used up their Luck in making Small Gain, they're to suffer Huge Loss eventually!
Remember, this is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL NOT Buy.
Save your Breathe for the Greatest CRASH!
Fate
None Has ALL the Luck ALL the Times
Monday, October 27, 2008
What I've been doing
Another Heart Breaking Day.
The Australian Benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell to 4-Year Low.
The HK HSI fell by over 1,600 points or 12.7% to 11,015 - a Drop of about 65% from its Peak.
In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell to a 26-Year Low - Yes, the Lowest since 1982.
There will be more troubles ahead as the world's 2nd largest economy's shares tumbled so badly.
So, what have you been doing to protect your Hard Earned Cash?
For the last few days, I've been receiving many calls/E Mails from my friends in Toronto, New York, Beijing, HK, Sydney etc., asking if it's the Best Time to buy. If so, What, How and Where to Buy.
So, I think I may as well share with you lot here.
1) Currency
I've mentioned in my blog dated 18 Oct, titled "Difference", stating that I am to buy some A$ while waiting for the CRASH in the share markets.
My Instinct at the time was to buy "Below A$1 = HK$5.5."
(AT the time it was A$1 = HK$5.2)
Although I'd a HK$ loan from my bank in HK, I had to fight the Bureaucracy in trying to get the money sent to my bank in Australia in A$ for the last week. And now, A$ drops to HK$ 4.75 - drops by about 8.6%. (www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data) Thanks to the Bureaucracy!
I later visited the website, www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory, confirming during the last 2,000 days (i.e. between 8.5.03 & 27.10.08) there were only 4 days A$ was around $HK4.90 before this week. The Average of these 2000 days is HK$6.076, High is HK$7.624 and Low? Just made today at around HK$4.75!!
I believe the current strength of US$ will NOT last long.
Everyone is soon to wake up and realise US$ worths much less than what it is now, because the US Government just keeps printing money to bail out almost every industry!! A Big Fall is inevitable. (Although there will be a Time Gap - just like when I first warned others about the CRASH back in July 2007)
So I'm to buy more NZ$/A$. Again, using the 1/3 Approach. Putting another 1/3 in when it drops by another 20% and so forth - we're only Humans and we will make Mistakes, so always better to buy in phases.
Better Be Safe than Sorry.
2) Share
I'll only buy one share.
Because I'm a customer of it for the last 23 years, have been keeping an eye on it since early 90's, its leading position in China/HK, Asia and the World, I have received personal apology from its CEOs/Chairperson and it has won numerous awards for its Outstanding Management etc.,
HSBC Holdings
(One of the Largest Banking Group in the World, currently ranked at 5th or 6th)
I've been warning the HK HSI to fall dramatically since July 2007 (NOT 2008), reminding others to start considering to buy ONLY when HSI fell to SARS LEVEL in 2003, that is, at 8,000. But of course, noone was listening to me - especially when the HSI hit the Historical High of 31,638 on 31 Oct 2007!
For the last few days, everyone finally rang/E Mailed me, stating that,
"I wish I had listened to you back then!"
I'd stated in my previous blog how Low I believe the HSI and DJIA would be. dated 12 Oct, titled "How Low Could It Be?" (Using the same principle, S&P/ASX200 should fall to around 1,000 points)
When to buy HSBC : when it drops to around HK$60.
(Today closed at HK$75, although one year High was at HK$152)
How to buy : 1/3 at HK$60, another 1/3 at HK$48, last 1/3 at around HK$38.
Fund Involved : STILL KEEP 50% CASH after buying the above HSBC.
Where to buy : For me, I'll try to buy it from the London Listing, as I mainly have NZ$ and if buy it in HK$, I am to suffer a 35% LOSS due to recent great fall of NZ$. Buying in Sterling Pounds, I am to suffer only about 5% loss on the Cross Rate. Also, buying in Sterling Pound may benefit from the future recovery of UK Economy, making a gain both in share price & exchange rate and to reduce the loss due to a sudden Depreciation of HK$.
3) Property
Although I expect the Australian Property Price to fall further, I suffer Minimum Loss.
Because the monthly interest income I receive from my Lump Sum, which I could have used for a Cash Purchase, has offset most of my monthly mortgage repayment. So, I'm in a way like "Paying a A$200 rent a week" for my Lakefront Brand New Home - the market rent for which should be around A$550-600 a week.
If interest rate AND house price are to drop significantly in USA, HK, Australia, UK etc., one may start to think buying some properties.
4) Cross Rates
If I'm to return to HK tomorrow, I'm to suffer a LOSS of abut 35% as I mainly hold NZ$. But if I continue to stay in Australia, I'm actually Better Off because the Cross Rate between NZ$ and A$ has risen from A$0.86 when we came here from NZ two years ago to now at A$0.89.
So, one should start looking at Cross Rates to ensure how they could be suffering Less Loss, some like my UK friends, they acutally made a Gain of 25-30 %, even thoug Sterling Pounds has dropped to a 5-Year Low against US$!
Noone knows your Full Circumstances better than Yourself, so make a Good Assessment of your Current Financial Situation and make the Next Right Move to Minimise your Potential Huge Loss.
It's Coming - the Greatest CRASH.
I could be Totally Wrong. But if I'm Right, you'll NOT be Alright!
Fate
Investment is about Having Discipline
The Australian Benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell to 4-Year Low.
The HK HSI fell by over 1,600 points or 12.7% to 11,015 - a Drop of about 65% from its Peak.
In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell to a 26-Year Low - Yes, the Lowest since 1982.
There will be more troubles ahead as the world's 2nd largest economy's shares tumbled so badly.
So, what have you been doing to protect your Hard Earned Cash?
For the last few days, I've been receiving many calls/E Mails from my friends in Toronto, New York, Beijing, HK, Sydney etc., asking if it's the Best Time to buy. If so, What, How and Where to Buy.
So, I think I may as well share with you lot here.
1) Currency
I've mentioned in my blog dated 18 Oct, titled "Difference", stating that I am to buy some A$ while waiting for the CRASH in the share markets.
My Instinct at the time was to buy "Below A$1 = HK$5.5."
(AT the time it was A$1 = HK$5.2)
Although I'd a HK$ loan from my bank in HK, I had to fight the Bureaucracy in trying to get the money sent to my bank in Australia in A$ for the last week. And now, A$ drops to HK$ 4.75 - drops by about 8.6%. (www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data) Thanks to the Bureaucracy!
I later visited the website, www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory, confirming during the last 2,000 days (i.e. between 8.5.03 & 27.10.08) there were only 4 days A$ was around $HK4.90 before this week. The Average of these 2000 days is HK$6.076, High is HK$7.624 and Low? Just made today at around HK$4.75!!
I believe the current strength of US$ will NOT last long.
Everyone is soon to wake up and realise US$ worths much less than what it is now, because the US Government just keeps printing money to bail out almost every industry!! A Big Fall is inevitable. (Although there will be a Time Gap - just like when I first warned others about the CRASH back in July 2007)
So I'm to buy more NZ$/A$. Again, using the 1/3 Approach. Putting another 1/3 in when it drops by another 20% and so forth - we're only Humans and we will make Mistakes, so always better to buy in phases.
Better Be Safe than Sorry.
2) Share
I'll only buy one share.
Because I'm a customer of it for the last 23 years, have been keeping an eye on it since early 90's, its leading position in China/HK, Asia and the World, I have received personal apology from its CEOs/Chairperson and it has won numerous awards for its Outstanding Management etc.,
HSBC Holdings
(One of the Largest Banking Group in the World, currently ranked at 5th or 6th)
I've been warning the HK HSI to fall dramatically since July 2007 (NOT 2008), reminding others to start considering to buy ONLY when HSI fell to SARS LEVEL in 2003, that is, at 8,000. But of course, noone was listening to me - especially when the HSI hit the Historical High of 31,638 on 31 Oct 2007!
For the last few days, everyone finally rang/E Mailed me, stating that,
"I wish I had listened to you back then!"
I'd stated in my previous blog how Low I believe the HSI and DJIA would be. dated 12 Oct, titled "How Low Could It Be?" (Using the same principle, S&P/ASX200 should fall to around 1,000 points)
When to buy HSBC : when it drops to around HK$60.
(Today closed at HK$75, although one year High was at HK$152)
How to buy : 1/3 at HK$60, another 1/3 at HK$48, last 1/3 at around HK$38.
Fund Involved : STILL KEEP 50% CASH after buying the above HSBC.
Where to buy : For me, I'll try to buy it from the London Listing, as I mainly have NZ$ and if buy it in HK$, I am to suffer a 35% LOSS due to recent great fall of NZ$. Buying in Sterling Pounds, I am to suffer only about 5% loss on the Cross Rate. Also, buying in Sterling Pound may benefit from the future recovery of UK Economy, making a gain both in share price & exchange rate and to reduce the loss due to a sudden Depreciation of HK$.
3) Property
Although I expect the Australian Property Price to fall further, I suffer Minimum Loss.
Because the monthly interest income I receive from my Lump Sum, which I could have used for a Cash Purchase, has offset most of my monthly mortgage repayment. So, I'm in a way like "Paying a A$200 rent a week" for my Lakefront Brand New Home - the market rent for which should be around A$550-600 a week.
If interest rate AND house price are to drop significantly in USA, HK, Australia, UK etc., one may start to think buying some properties.
4) Cross Rates
If I'm to return to HK tomorrow, I'm to suffer a LOSS of abut 35% as I mainly hold NZ$. But if I continue to stay in Australia, I'm actually Better Off because the Cross Rate between NZ$ and A$ has risen from A$0.86 when we came here from NZ two years ago to now at A$0.89.
So, one should start looking at Cross Rates to ensure how they could be suffering Less Loss, some like my UK friends, they acutally made a Gain of 25-30 %, even thoug Sterling Pounds has dropped to a 5-Year Low against US$!
Noone knows your Full Circumstances better than Yourself, so make a Good Assessment of your Current Financial Situation and make the Next Right Move to Minimise your Potential Huge Loss.
It's Coming - the Greatest CRASH.
I could be Totally Wrong. But if I'm Right, you'll NOT be Alright!
Fate
Investment is about Having Discipline
Sunday, October 26, 2008
WWIII
The World is now at War - the WWIII.
A War with NO identified enemy.
A War with NO end in sight.
A War with the Largest Casualties.
A War looks like almost Everyone is a Loser.
We are all now facing this New War in the Globale Financial Markets.
Everything is Possible.
Everything could be Terrible.
The Emerging Market has now become "Emergency" Market.
They are all in Big Troubles -from Argentina in Latin America, to South Korea in Asia, to South Africa in Africa, to Hungary in Europe, to Ukraine in Old USSR Block etc. and to the once the UNbreakable "BRIC" (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India & China). Not only their share markets are falling like mad, so are most of their currencies.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12481004
Iceland has become "Isolatedland".
The First Country went down in the current Meltdown. In fact, the first Western Developed Nation that needs to be rescued since 1976! There are more falling countries lining up requesting help from IMF.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279
Britain has been "Beaten".
Its Economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter - the first time in 16 years. And its currency dropped by over 5% on Friday - the Biggest one day fall in 37 years and is now at US$1.53, back to the level seen in 2002! And two of its Banking Giants, HSBC & Barclay's dropped by 15% the same day. Its property price is expected to fall by another 16% in 2009 and will not bottom until 2010 - by then it will be 33% from the Peak reached in Mid 2007.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165154?tid=relatedcl
HK has shown its Undisputed Commitment towards the "One Country, Two System".
Its HSI lost over 1,100 points, 8.3% on Friday - falling three times more than its Mainland China counterparts! In fact, HK share market has lost over US$14.6 Trillion in value for the last 9 months, and is now valued at US$8.6 Trillion only! None of the 50 Blue Chips making up the HSI now values more than HK$100 - which was once Incomprehensible!
USA - what can I say?
Massive Unemployment on its way.
Yahoo to cut 10% workforce, so is Goldman Sach. Chrysler has the Biggest Cut - 25% of its workforce. USA is soon to have the 7% then 8% then 9% Unemployment Rate! And the16th Bank collapse happened just last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/26layoffs.html?_r=l&hp&oref=slogin
Australia - three mortgage funds stopped investors from redeeming on Friday. One of which owned by the Richest Man in Australia, whose mining firm's shares once rose by 40% in a month and 300% in a year - thanks to China.
Now, anyone putting A$1 million into any bank has to pay a fee. Still I believe Australia is better place in this current WWIII. Australian Economy is more dependant on China than US. Although China is slowing down with its lowest growth in 5 years, this 9% growth is still amusing - Japan or South Korean could not achieve this rate even in their boom years and the last time USA had this growth rate was about 50 years ago!
Also, there are about 1million Aussies working overseas, mainly in USA and UK. Many of them may have to return Australia due to firms scaling down. Their US$ and UK Sterling now buy 33% and 25% More A$ than 3-month and 1 year ago respectively, the Interest Rate being cut so aggressively and more help from the Federal Government (e.g.1st Home Grant, Stamp Duty Concession), this will make the property much attractive to them, making the adjustment in Australian Property Market more bearable.
Hedges Fund, the once Darling of the Investment World, has now become "Hitted Fund".
Because it is supposed to make big money regardless of the fall.
More than 200 Hedge Funds have gone since the beginning of this year. And is tipped to have another between 500-2500 (from between a total of 8,000-10,000) gone before the end of this year - the share prices in every market are now under Tremendous Downward Pressure.
Just in case you have not noticed, the share markets in USA, UK, Australia is already 40% down from their Peak about a year ago. HK fell more than 62% for the same period!
This is , however, ONLY the Beginning of the Most Disastrous Ending.
We had one of two Developing Countries defaulted on their debt at one time;
We had one or two Big Hedge Funds collapsed at one time;
We had a few Country Currencies being attacked at one time;
We had Big House Price Fall in one or two Countries at one time;
We had one or two Countries in Deep Recession in one time;
We had High Unemployment in one or two Countries at one time etc. etc.
But we have NOT had the above happening ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
How are you to Protect Yourself from this Most Brutal WW?
Next time, let me share with you what I have been doing/will do, giving you some ideas what you can do after assessing your Own Circumstances.
Fate
Make the Most of YOUR Circumstances
A War with NO identified enemy.
A War with NO end in sight.
A War with the Largest Casualties.
A War looks like almost Everyone is a Loser.
We are all now facing this New War in the Globale Financial Markets.
Everything is Possible.
Everything could be Terrible.
The Emerging Market has now become "Emergency" Market.
They are all in Big Troubles -from Argentina in Latin America, to South Korea in Asia, to South Africa in Africa, to Hungary in Europe, to Ukraine in Old USSR Block etc. and to the once the UNbreakable "BRIC" (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India & China). Not only their share markets are falling like mad, so are most of their currencies.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12481004
Iceland has become "Isolatedland".
The First Country went down in the current Meltdown. In fact, the first Western Developed Nation that needs to be rescued since 1976! There are more falling countries lining up requesting help from IMF.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279
Britain has been "Beaten".
Its Economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter - the first time in 16 years. And its currency dropped by over 5% on Friday - the Biggest one day fall in 37 years and is now at US$1.53, back to the level seen in 2002! And two of its Banking Giants, HSBC & Barclay's dropped by 15% the same day. Its property price is expected to fall by another 16% in 2009 and will not bottom until 2010 - by then it will be 33% from the Peak reached in Mid 2007.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165154?tid=relatedcl
HK has shown its Undisputed Commitment towards the "One Country, Two System".
Its HSI lost over 1,100 points, 8.3% on Friday - falling three times more than its Mainland China counterparts! In fact, HK share market has lost over US$14.6 Trillion in value for the last 9 months, and is now valued at US$8.6 Trillion only! None of the 50 Blue Chips making up the HSI now values more than HK$100 - which was once Incomprehensible!
USA - what can I say?
Massive Unemployment on its way.
Yahoo to cut 10% workforce, so is Goldman Sach. Chrysler has the Biggest Cut - 25% of its workforce. USA is soon to have the 7% then 8% then 9% Unemployment Rate! And the16th Bank collapse happened just last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/26layoffs.html?_r=l&hp&oref=slogin
Australia - three mortgage funds stopped investors from redeeming on Friday. One of which owned by the Richest Man in Australia, whose mining firm's shares once rose by 40% in a month and 300% in a year - thanks to China.
Now, anyone putting A$1 million into any bank has to pay a fee. Still I believe Australia is better place in this current WWIII. Australian Economy is more dependant on China than US. Although China is slowing down with its lowest growth in 5 years, this 9% growth is still amusing - Japan or South Korean could not achieve this rate even in their boom years and the last time USA had this growth rate was about 50 years ago!
Also, there are about 1million Aussies working overseas, mainly in USA and UK. Many of them may have to return Australia due to firms scaling down. Their US$ and UK Sterling now buy 33% and 25% More A$ than 3-month and 1 year ago respectively, the Interest Rate being cut so aggressively and more help from the Federal Government (e.g.1st Home Grant, Stamp Duty Concession), this will make the property much attractive to them, making the adjustment in Australian Property Market more bearable.
Hedges Fund, the once Darling of the Investment World, has now become "Hitted Fund".
Because it is supposed to make big money regardless of the fall.
More than 200 Hedge Funds have gone since the beginning of this year. And is tipped to have another between 500-2500 (from between a total of 8,000-10,000) gone before the end of this year - the share prices in every market are now under Tremendous Downward Pressure.
Just in case you have not noticed, the share markets in USA, UK, Australia is already 40% down from their Peak about a year ago. HK fell more than 62% for the same period!
This is , however, ONLY the Beginning of the Most Disastrous Ending.
We had one of two Developing Countries defaulted on their debt at one time;
We had one or two Big Hedge Funds collapsed at one time;
We had a few Country Currencies being attacked at one time;
We had Big House Price Fall in one or two Countries at one time;
We had one or two Countries in Deep Recession in one time;
We had High Unemployment in one or two Countries at one time etc. etc.
But we have NOT had the above happening ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
How are you to Protect Yourself from this Most Brutal WW?
Next time, let me share with you what I have been doing/will do, giving you some ideas what you can do after assessing your Own Circumstances.
Fate
Make the Most of YOUR Circumstances
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Worst is NOT Over
Wall ST fell by 5.69% overnight. And the reason?
Do we actually need any reason in the current nervous climate?
Just a sudden change of Sentiment could push down the Wall St by another 5%, 6% or even 10%.
Alright, this time they said it is the concerns over Corporate Profitability.
Is this News?
Almost a year ago, all these big firms (the big banks in particular) started writing off Historical level of Bad Debts, inviting Sovereign Funds, Foreign Investors etc. to pull in more Capitals.
And yet, quarter after quarter, there are still massive write off - contrary to the CEOs' claim of "The Worst is Over!"
E.g. Citi Group has a straight 4 Quarter Results in Red!
Not so long ago, RBS was fighting with Barclay's for the control of the Netherland Bank, ABN AMRO. And then they both started to fight for their own survival. Barclay's had to call in overseas investors to stay afloat and RBS?
The British Government has to rush in and take control!
And then the Netherland Giant, ING.
It bought the collapsed Baring's in Britain back in mid 90's and until about a month ago, was a potential candidate to bail out the falling Fortis. And now?
It has just been bailed out by the Netherland Government!
And the Once Reputable Red Chip (i.e. a Blue Chip with Strong Chinese Government Connection) in HK has just reported a Massive Loss on One Item alone - Hedging on A$, resulting in Giantic Loss of HK$15 Billion (i.e. about A$3 Billion) and, that is, 50% of the Firm's Market Value. Its share dropped by 55% in one day and about 80% in two days!
So far, vast majority of "Mum & Dad" Investors are drowned in this "Financial Tsunami". Some Institutional Investors still holding on to some shares, hoping that the Worst is over and firms soon start to be making profits and paying good dividends again. Now, they realise this Hope remains a Hope only and will not come True in the near future and are increasingly under pressure to cash in their holdings.
The effects of this "Financial Tsunami" are gradually reflecting in the broader economy (e.g. Higher Unemployment), though as the Financial Secretary in HK recently stated in the public,
"We have NOT seen the Worst yet."
And the CEO of the HSBC has also claimed after laying off thousands of jobs within HSBC,
"I could not promise there will not be any more job cuts."
And the Governor for the Bank of England just stated,
"Britain is in Recession."
And the already confirmed in Recession NZ, just cut its official rate by 1% to 6.5% this morning.
Australia?
Well, we are of course better placed than US. Our official rate is at 6% and theirs at 1.5%
If we are to continue cutting rate by 1% at a time, we still have 6 times to go before reaching 0.
And US has only 1 1/2 time - NO more silver bullets?
There are some Economists already worrying US is to have a Prolong Recession like the Japan in the 90s.
And now Iceland is down, Pakistan in also in the line to seek IMF's help, South Korea is defending its currency and Hungary has put up its interest rate by 3% to also defend its currency, fencing off the Hungary Speculators!
And More and More Hedge Funds are collapsing in everywhere.
Not to mention the full extent of Damage caused by the collapsed Lehmans has yet to be fully comprehended. (The US 64 Trillion CDS market)
The Worst is NOT over - you'll be if you still have NOT changed your Mentality and Strategy!
Fate
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Do we actually need any reason in the current nervous climate?
Just a sudden change of Sentiment could push down the Wall St by another 5%, 6% or even 10%.
Alright, this time they said it is the concerns over Corporate Profitability.
Is this News?
Almost a year ago, all these big firms (the big banks in particular) started writing off Historical level of Bad Debts, inviting Sovereign Funds, Foreign Investors etc. to pull in more Capitals.
And yet, quarter after quarter, there are still massive write off - contrary to the CEOs' claim of "The Worst is Over!"
E.g. Citi Group has a straight 4 Quarter Results in Red!
Not so long ago, RBS was fighting with Barclay's for the control of the Netherland Bank, ABN AMRO. And then they both started to fight for their own survival. Barclay's had to call in overseas investors to stay afloat and RBS?
The British Government has to rush in and take control!
And then the Netherland Giant, ING.
It bought the collapsed Baring's in Britain back in mid 90's and until about a month ago, was a potential candidate to bail out the falling Fortis. And now?
It has just been bailed out by the Netherland Government!
And the Once Reputable Red Chip (i.e. a Blue Chip with Strong Chinese Government Connection) in HK has just reported a Massive Loss on One Item alone - Hedging on A$, resulting in Giantic Loss of HK$15 Billion (i.e. about A$3 Billion) and, that is, 50% of the Firm's Market Value. Its share dropped by 55% in one day and about 80% in two days!
So far, vast majority of "Mum & Dad" Investors are drowned in this "Financial Tsunami". Some Institutional Investors still holding on to some shares, hoping that the Worst is over and firms soon start to be making profits and paying good dividends again. Now, they realise this Hope remains a Hope only and will not come True in the near future and are increasingly under pressure to cash in their holdings.
The effects of this "Financial Tsunami" are gradually reflecting in the broader economy (e.g. Higher Unemployment), though as the Financial Secretary in HK recently stated in the public,
"We have NOT seen the Worst yet."
And the CEO of the HSBC has also claimed after laying off thousands of jobs within HSBC,
"I could not promise there will not be any more job cuts."
And the Governor for the Bank of England just stated,
"Britain is in Recession."
And the already confirmed in Recession NZ, just cut its official rate by 1% to 6.5% this morning.
Australia?
Well, we are of course better placed than US. Our official rate is at 6% and theirs at 1.5%
If we are to continue cutting rate by 1% at a time, we still have 6 times to go before reaching 0.
And US has only 1 1/2 time - NO more silver bullets?
There are some Economists already worrying US is to have a Prolong Recession like the Japan in the 90s.
And now Iceland is down, Pakistan in also in the line to seek IMF's help, South Korea is defending its currency and Hungary has put up its interest rate by 3% to also defend its currency, fencing off the Hungary Speculators!
And More and More Hedge Funds are collapsing in everywhere.
Not to mention the full extent of Damage caused by the collapsed Lehmans has yet to be fully comprehended. (The US 64 Trillion CDS market)
The Worst is NOT over - you'll be if you still have NOT changed your Mentality and Strategy!
Fate
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Where is the Money gone?
There are a lot of people saying the following recently about the ever dropping share markets,
"Oh.....I wish I had not bought it then!"
"Gosh! What's going on? How low could it be?"
"I wish I had the money to buy some shares now - look at the Bargains!"
The Question is,
Where is their Money gone?
Either Lost it or Tied to some may never bounced back shares.
The Reason is?
These people have made the Wrong Comparison, so
When the share market dropped by 15%, 50% of Investors thought it was low, then rushed to buy.
The market continued to drop by another 15%, another 30% Investors thought it was low, so rushed to buy.
But the share dropped by further 10% , another 10% Investors thought it was low and rushed to buy it.
90% Investors thought it was low because they were comparing with,
"The Lowest for the last 52 weeks";
"The Lowest for the last 3 Years"; or
"The Lowest for the last 5 years"
They forgot the current Crisis is, according to many commentators, at least the Worst in 20 years.
Some say (e.g. the British Treasurer) the Worst since WWII (i.e. in 40 years) .
And a few (e.g. Federal Reserve Chairperson, Bernanke) have stressed this is "The Worst since the Great Depression 1929"
So, the Patient Investors are still waiting, with their Cash ready, in the best position to capture this "Once in a Century" (according to the last Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan) Opportunity.
Because these 10% are convinced the Biggest Fall has yet to come.
Like Life itself, Investment is also about "Having Self Discipline" - Don't Buy because Others are Buying. And "Patience" is a Must Have Quality.
Fate
Be Patient. Be A Winner
"Oh.....I wish I had not bought it then!"
"Gosh! What's going on? How low could it be?"
"I wish I had the money to buy some shares now - look at the Bargains!"
The Question is,
Where is their Money gone?
Either Lost it or Tied to some may never bounced back shares.
The Reason is?
These people have made the Wrong Comparison, so
When the share market dropped by 15%, 50% of Investors thought it was low, then rushed to buy.
The market continued to drop by another 15%, another 30% Investors thought it was low, so rushed to buy.
But the share dropped by further 10% , another 10% Investors thought it was low and rushed to buy it.
90% Investors thought it was low because they were comparing with,
"The Lowest for the last 52 weeks";
"The Lowest for the last 3 Years"; or
"The Lowest for the last 5 years"
They forgot the current Crisis is, according to many commentators, at least the Worst in 20 years.
Some say (e.g. the British Treasurer) the Worst since WWII (i.e. in 40 years) .
And a few (e.g. Federal Reserve Chairperson, Bernanke) have stressed this is "The Worst since the Great Depression 1929"
So, the Patient Investors are still waiting, with their Cash ready, in the best position to capture this "Once in a Century" (according to the last Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan) Opportunity.
Because these 10% are convinced the Biggest Fall has yet to come.
Like Life itself, Investment is also about "Having Self Discipline" - Don't Buy because Others are Buying. And "Patience" is a Must Have Quality.
Fate
Be Patient. Be A Winner
Monday, October 20, 2008
Sell, Sell, Sell
Not only I disagree with Warren Buffett's claim, "It's time to Buy now", but I also believe it is the time to SELL - Sell everytime when the share market rebounds.
Wall ST climbed 4.67% overnight.
So, we 're to see the Australian Market and the HK Market are to surge too later today.
And you should be Selling to cut loss.
Remember the Golden Two Rules of Warren Buffett? (Which I totally Agree)
Rule 1 : Keep your Capital.
Rule 2?
Remember Rule 1!
But, this does NOT change the fact that the Biggest CRASH is coming.
One trader has closely monitored the Wall ST, studying the Volatility Index (DJIA's movement over 1% a day) confirming the 13-Trading Day (i.e. between 1-17 Oct 2008) Period is the 2nd Most Violate Period on record.
And the MOST Volatile Period on record?
Yes, that happened during the 1929 Great Depression.
This trader stated that he has never seen anything like this in his Life before and probably will not see it again.
The Latest Noble Prize Winner in Economics stressing that,
"US is already in Serious Recession."
The Professor claims the Unemployment Rate will climb up to 7%, 8%.
In HK, the 62-year-old, Once The Market Leader, a Reputable Electrical Store collapsed a few days ago, leaving 260+ staff unemployed. In fact, the HK Chamber of Commerce recently claimed 25% of the Small & Medium Sized Firm will collapse.
In Australia, I saw a TV report on Sunday interviewing two economists. They predicted the Unemployment Rate in Australia is to rise to 5% or 6%, that is another 100,000 or 200,000 jobs gone, by the end of 2009.
One thing is sure though.
Three months ago, when the Petrol Price was at US$145 & the Mortgage Rate was at its Recent Highest, the Australians seemed to be copying better than now when the Petrol Price is about US$75 & the Mortgage Rate has been cut over 1% - why?
Because Australians now realise the chance of losing their jobs are very high - so they're spending in a much cautious way, cutting back on non-essential items.
Just wait until the US Job Market Data release - and see how the market responds.
Fate
Preparing Our Best for the Worst
Wall ST climbed 4.67% overnight.
So, we 're to see the Australian Market and the HK Market are to surge too later today.
And you should be Selling to cut loss.
Remember the Golden Two Rules of Warren Buffett? (Which I totally Agree)
Rule 1 : Keep your Capital.
Rule 2?
Remember Rule 1!
But, this does NOT change the fact that the Biggest CRASH is coming.
One trader has closely monitored the Wall ST, studying the Volatility Index (DJIA's movement over 1% a day) confirming the 13-Trading Day (i.e. between 1-17 Oct 2008) Period is the 2nd Most Violate Period on record.
And the MOST Volatile Period on record?
Yes, that happened during the 1929 Great Depression.
This trader stated that he has never seen anything like this in his Life before and probably will not see it again.
The Latest Noble Prize Winner in Economics stressing that,
"US is already in Serious Recession."
The Professor claims the Unemployment Rate will climb up to 7%, 8%.
In HK, the 62-year-old, Once The Market Leader, a Reputable Electrical Store collapsed a few days ago, leaving 260+ staff unemployed. In fact, the HK Chamber of Commerce recently claimed 25% of the Small & Medium Sized Firm will collapse.
In Australia, I saw a TV report on Sunday interviewing two economists. They predicted the Unemployment Rate in Australia is to rise to 5% or 6%, that is another 100,000 or 200,000 jobs gone, by the end of 2009.
One thing is sure though.
Three months ago, when the Petrol Price was at US$145 & the Mortgage Rate was at its Recent Highest, the Australians seemed to be copying better than now when the Petrol Price is about US$75 & the Mortgage Rate has been cut over 1% - why?
Because Australians now realise the chance of losing their jobs are very high - so they're spending in a much cautious way, cutting back on non-essential items.
Just wait until the US Job Market Data release - and see how the market responds.
Fate
Preparing Our Best for the Worst
Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett (Yes, the Richest Man on this planet) has recently openly saying he has started buying US shares with His Own Money (i.e. not money from his flagship, Berkshire Hathaway) and will buy more, reminding others this is a good time to buy.
A commentator has then checked Warren Buffett's previous records in urging the public to buy shares. The first time Warren did it was in 1974 - the US share market hit the bottom a month after his remarks. And the last time Warren did it was in 1979 - the share market hit the bottom 8 months after his remarks.
Although the Past does NOT necessary dictate the Present or the Future, the above do re-confirm one thing,
There is a Time Gap between "What Should Happen" and "When it Actually Happens".
So, the worst is soon to come - within a month the soonest?
Or eight months from now the latest?
It's interesting to see the result of a survey, asking if people believe in what Warren Buffett said.
65% believe and 35% have doubts - because they believe Warren only says something in His Own Interests.
I'm one of those 35%, I do not take those have a Conflict of Interests Seriously and I therefore do NOT believe this is the Best Time to Buy - the WORST has yet to come.
After all, Warren has recently made a Major Mistake in selling the PetroChina shares too soon - losing at least another 100% rise profit!
Fate
Trust Your Own Instinct
A commentator has then checked Warren Buffett's previous records in urging the public to buy shares. The first time Warren did it was in 1974 - the US share market hit the bottom a month after his remarks. And the last time Warren did it was in 1979 - the share market hit the bottom 8 months after his remarks.
Although the Past does NOT necessary dictate the Present or the Future, the above do re-confirm one thing,
There is a Time Gap between "What Should Happen" and "When it Actually Happens".
So, the worst is soon to come - within a month the soonest?
Or eight months from now the latest?
It's interesting to see the result of a survey, asking if people believe in what Warren Buffett said.
65% believe and 35% have doubts - because they believe Warren only says something in His Own Interests.
I'm one of those 35%, I do not take those have a Conflict of Interests Seriously and I therefore do NOT believe this is the Best Time to Buy - the WORST has yet to come.
After all, Warren has recently made a Major Mistake in selling the PetroChina shares too soon - losing at least another 100% rise profit!
Fate
Trust Your Own Instinct
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
