How Low?

The Dow fell below 6,800 on Monday Trading.
The first time since April 97 - that was almost 12 years ago.
What were you doing back then?
I was preparing hard to emigrate to Britain, starting my overseas living Life.

So, how Low would the Dow go?
As stated on 12 Oct 08 in this Blog,
I was and still am convinced the Dow would go as Low as 2,500 points!
Well, Just a Guess.
But then again, who's NOT?

What about the just announced result, the Europe's Largest Bank, also the 4th/5th World's Largest Bank, HSBC, how Low would its share price go?

You may get some ideas from the share price of the Once World's Largest Bank, the Citi,

On 2 March 2007, it was about US$50.
On 2 March 2009, exactly two years later, its share price was...........
















About US$1.20 ONLY!!!

That is a Drop of about.....mmm.....(wait for me....I need a calculator)







About 97.6%!!!!

And still Dropping - and could be 0!

So, do you think HSBC's Capital Raising Offer of 50% discount (compared to the last Friday's closing price) at HK$28 to the Existing Shareholders is a Good Deal?

Have a look of other leading British Banks, Lloyds Group, Barclay's & Royal Bank of Scotland - their share prices are all LESS than Sterling 1 Pound!

So, if we compare HSBC with the Citi on a World Bank basis, how could HSBC still be at US$28.25 when the Citi is now at US$1.20 Only?

And if we compare HSBC with the above three on a UK Bank Basis, how could HSBC still be at Sterling Pound 3.90 when the other three are only Sterling Pound 0.47, 0.84 & 0.21 Only?

If the Citi has dropped about 97% from 2 years ago, the 3 British Banks have dropped between 80-90% from last year, how much more will HSBC drop?

I personally will NOT take the Offer and therefore will Sell the Right.

Remember, many bought HSBC at HK$120 (if not at HK$140!), now with the Offer at HK$28, the Average Price will only come down to HK$92.9

Many bought HSBC at HK$80, with the Offer at HK$28, the Average Price will only come down to HK$64.7

Even if one is to buy HSBC at HK$40 from the market and take the HK$28 Offer, the Average Price for HSBC will only be at HK$36.4

I believe in about 3-month time (if NOT less) HSBC will drop BELOW the Offering Price - BELOW HK$28.

It's ONLY the Beginning.

Fate
Everything is By Comparison