How Low Could It Be?

Although it was only the 10th, it was a Black Friday.
Although all share prices were in "Red", it was a "Black" Friday.

Things are getting from Worse to Even Worse.
From Australia in South Hemisphere to Iceland in North Hemisphere - and HK in between!
Australian market fell by a stunning 8.3%, not seen since 87 CRASH & a world away from USA.
Iceland government took over the 3rd largest bank, then the largest bank, with its currency dropped from about 130 = 1 Euro to, last I checked, about 340 = 1 Euro!

And in Zimbabwe, Inflation is at an Unbelievable 238 Million %.
NOT 238% but 238,000,000%!
2 months ago, one could still buy a toilet roll for 1 million Zimbabwe money, now....... you need 40 million Zimbabwe money to buy the same toilet roll - make sure you do not have a stomach.

In Britain, the share dropped by 10% within the First 7 minutes when the market opened.
And the British Government has done something not done before - Guarantee the Liabilities of several major British Banks.

In USA, another precedent after so many precedents,
The Government is prepared to buy Bank Shares Directly.
And this is only to Worsen the Balance Sheet of the US Government - and the downgrade from Credit Agencies could happen anytime from now.

So, now we only need one/two more incidents to see the 50% + Fall in Wall St.

(I suspect DJIA is to fall to about 2,500 points, though the article "What History Tells Us About the Market" in www.wsj.com, suggesting Wall St. to fall around 6,000 level)

Now, the Storm has spread from US to Europe and Asia .
(Just look at Japan Nikkei Index's record fall every day!)

What is to happen in HK?

Property price to drop 20-30% (Worse than in US?)
Inflation is to rise further? (NOT as bad as Zimbabwe though)
Unemployment to rise further? (Any Doubt?)
Smaller banks to collapse? (Many developed countries now guarantee FULL bank deposits)

HK$ - will it be forced to Depreciate?
(South Korea, the "Asian Iceland", its Won has fallen by about 15% so far)

HSI to drop to SARS Level?
(I was advised it was around 8,000 points in April 2003)


I personally suspect HSI to fall to about 4,000 points.

Again, I could be Dead Wrong.
But if I'm Right, you are DEAD if you've NOT already made the necessary arrangements.

Cheers
Fate
Every Day There is a New Low