What normally takes 80 years to happen in the Global Financial Markets have happened in the last 18 months!
This is a Steep Learning Curve for ALL and Steep Losing Cost for Most.
Let's all :
Learn from the Past,
Change Our Future.
I therefore would like to share with you what I've learnt IN PERSON and hopefully, you're to share with me what you've learnt from this WWIII.
I'm to return to HK by the end of Nov and stay for 2 months for family reason/a holiday.
Date : (Sun) 7 December 2008
Time : 1000-1200 hrs
Venue : Mong Kok Police Recreation Club (Sai Yeung Choi Street North)
Prince Edward MTR Station Exit A
http://www.mtr.com.hk/jplanner/images/maps/pre.gif
Cost : Yes, because NOTHING is FREE in Life.
But you do NOT pay me.
PLEASE BRING A RECEIPT SHOWING A HK$18 DONATION HAS BEEN MADE.
Remarks :
As stated before, Investment is MOSTLY about Luck - Luck is 60%.
And Luck can be Accumulated by Being Kind to Others.
So, you're paying for YOURSELF - Be Kind, then one may not have Good Luck Everytime but Bad Luck will be kept away Most of the Times.
See if I've any Luck in Meeting some of you and Learning from you.
Fate
Everyone is a Teacher
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Be the Minority
Wall St has one Big Gain,
But, then again, this's NOT a Game;
It's Time to SELL and NOT to Buy,
Or you're to Kiss your Money Goodbye;
Big Crocodiles want you to Die,
So that they could all get High.
My Friend, please regain your Common Sense,
Or you're to lose Every Cent;
Be Patient or be a Heart Attack Patient,
As the Greatest CRASH soon gets your Attention.
Fate
Be the Minority - Be a Winner
But, then again, this's NOT a Game;
It's Time to SELL and NOT to Buy,
Or you're to Kiss your Money Goodbye;
Big Crocodiles want you to Die,
So that they could all get High.
My Friend, please regain your Common Sense,
Or you're to lose Every Cent;
Be Patient or be a Heart Attack Patient,
As the Greatest CRASH soon gets your Attention.
Fate
Be the Minority - Be a Winner
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Plan B
In Life, one should always have Plan B.
After liaising with my HSBC bank in Britain, I now realise there are some technical difficulties to buy HSBC share in Sterling Pound from the London Stock Exchange - simply because I am now NOT in Britain!
While trying to overcome the obstacles, I now have a Plan B by taking advantage of my Another Circumstance - I am now in Australia, utlising my HSBC AUS Premier A/C.
I now serious consider buying share of an Australian Giant, the World's Largest Mining Firm, BHP.
First, it is always better and especially in the current climax to buy the Biggest - because there are more potentail big players coming on board or even the Governement has to come to rescue if the Biggest struggles or fails.
Second, the A$ is at a 5 1/2 year Low.
So, I could gain from BOTH the Rise in the Share Price and the Exchange Rate in 1-2 year time.
Have to examine the price trend and the future prospects of BHP first before setting the buying targets.
Also, given that the NZ$, A$ and Sterling Pounds are at a 5-6 year Low, one may consider buying properties therein if their house price falls further - again, to make gain from BOTH the Rise of House Price and Exchange Rate. Also, some parents may wish to send their children to those countries for Higher Education in the near future.
Did I NOT say "Dramatic" and Anythinhg could Happen?
After the Largest Fall in the world yesterday, HK HSI had the Largest Gain today - a stunning 14.35%! The Once "Big Elephant" HSBC flied like a bird - jumping 20% in a day after losing 15% in a day only last Friday!
Just a reminder, back in Aug 98, HSBC was at HK$49.50 ONLY !!
And as at Yesterday, the HSI dropped by 67% from its Height, whereas in 87 CRASH it dropped 52% from its Height and 97 CRASH dropped 61% from its Height.
How much further the current "Once in a Century" Crisis, with NO end in sight, will force the market to fall? (The 73 CRASH fell by 91%)
Back in July 2007, I hinted HSI to fall to at least to SARS Level - 8,000 points, when in fact, I believed it would fall much lower than that - now you know it's around 4,000 points. I did not say this back then because noone would believe me at the time, - and noone would take my Warning seriously. (The same applied to the HSBC price I hinted at HK$80, when I believed it would fall further)
As stated before, if anyone is Brave enough + Energetic enough + Quick enough........, they could make some good profit Today.
But, then again, this's EXACTLY the reason why people losing BIG money - because they've made some good money so Easily in the first place, they've become so Confident and start putting more money in. It is by then the BIG Mistake is made.
Investment, after all, is mostly about LUCK.
(Luck is 60% and anything else is 40%)
And if one has used up their Luck in making Small Gain, they're to suffer Huge Loss eventually!
Remember, this is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL NOT Buy.
Save your Breathe for the Greatest CRASH!
Fate
None Has ALL the Luck ALL the Times
After liaising with my HSBC bank in Britain, I now realise there are some technical difficulties to buy HSBC share in Sterling Pound from the London Stock Exchange - simply because I am now NOT in Britain!
While trying to overcome the obstacles, I now have a Plan B by taking advantage of my Another Circumstance - I am now in Australia, utlising my HSBC AUS Premier A/C.
I now serious consider buying share of an Australian Giant, the World's Largest Mining Firm, BHP.
First, it is always better and especially in the current climax to buy the Biggest - because there are more potentail big players coming on board or even the Governement has to come to rescue if the Biggest struggles or fails.
Second, the A$ is at a 5 1/2 year Low.
So, I could gain from BOTH the Rise in the Share Price and the Exchange Rate in 1-2 year time.
Have to examine the price trend and the future prospects of BHP first before setting the buying targets.
Also, given that the NZ$, A$ and Sterling Pounds are at a 5-6 year Low, one may consider buying properties therein if their house price falls further - again, to make gain from BOTH the Rise of House Price and Exchange Rate. Also, some parents may wish to send their children to those countries for Higher Education in the near future.
Did I NOT say "Dramatic" and Anythinhg could Happen?
After the Largest Fall in the world yesterday, HK HSI had the Largest Gain today - a stunning 14.35%! The Once "Big Elephant" HSBC flied like a bird - jumping 20% in a day after losing 15% in a day only last Friday!
Just a reminder, back in Aug 98, HSBC was at HK$49.50 ONLY !!
And as at Yesterday, the HSI dropped by 67% from its Height, whereas in 87 CRASH it dropped 52% from its Height and 97 CRASH dropped 61% from its Height.
How much further the current "Once in a Century" Crisis, with NO end in sight, will force the market to fall? (The 73 CRASH fell by 91%)
Back in July 2007, I hinted HSI to fall to at least to SARS Level - 8,000 points, when in fact, I believed it would fall much lower than that - now you know it's around 4,000 points. I did not say this back then because noone would believe me at the time, - and noone would take my Warning seriously. (The same applied to the HSBC price I hinted at HK$80, when I believed it would fall further)
As stated before, if anyone is Brave enough + Energetic enough + Quick enough........, they could make some good profit Today.
But, then again, this's EXACTLY the reason why people losing BIG money - because they've made some good money so Easily in the first place, they've become so Confident and start putting more money in. It is by then the BIG Mistake is made.
Investment, after all, is mostly about LUCK.
(Luck is 60% and anything else is 40%)
And if one has used up their Luck in making Small Gain, they're to suffer Huge Loss eventually!
Remember, this is the time to SELL, SELL, SELL NOT Buy.
Save your Breathe for the Greatest CRASH!
Fate
None Has ALL the Luck ALL the Times
Monday, October 27, 2008
What I've been doing
Another Heart Breaking Day.
The Australian Benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell to 4-Year Low.
The HK HSI fell by over 1,600 points or 12.7% to 11,015 - a Drop of about 65% from its Peak.
In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell to a 26-Year Low - Yes, the Lowest since 1982.
There will be more troubles ahead as the world's 2nd largest economy's shares tumbled so badly.
So, what have you been doing to protect your Hard Earned Cash?
For the last few days, I've been receiving many calls/E Mails from my friends in Toronto, New York, Beijing, HK, Sydney etc., asking if it's the Best Time to buy. If so, What, How and Where to Buy.
So, I think I may as well share with you lot here.
1) Currency
I've mentioned in my blog dated 18 Oct, titled "Difference", stating that I am to buy some A$ while waiting for the CRASH in the share markets.
My Instinct at the time was to buy "Below A$1 = HK$5.5."
(AT the time it was A$1 = HK$5.2)
Although I'd a HK$ loan from my bank in HK, I had to fight the Bureaucracy in trying to get the money sent to my bank in Australia in A$ for the last week. And now, A$ drops to HK$ 4.75 - drops by about 8.6%. (www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data) Thanks to the Bureaucracy!
I later visited the website, www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory, confirming during the last 2,000 days (i.e. between 8.5.03 & 27.10.08) there were only 4 days A$ was around $HK4.90 before this week. The Average of these 2000 days is HK$6.076, High is HK$7.624 and Low? Just made today at around HK$4.75!!
I believe the current strength of US$ will NOT last long.
Everyone is soon to wake up and realise US$ worths much less than what it is now, because the US Government just keeps printing money to bail out almost every industry!! A Big Fall is inevitable. (Although there will be a Time Gap - just like when I first warned others about the CRASH back in July 2007)
So I'm to buy more NZ$/A$. Again, using the 1/3 Approach. Putting another 1/3 in when it drops by another 20% and so forth - we're only Humans and we will make Mistakes, so always better to buy in phases.
Better Be Safe than Sorry.
2) Share
I'll only buy one share.
Because I'm a customer of it for the last 23 years, have been keeping an eye on it since early 90's, its leading position in China/HK, Asia and the World, I have received personal apology from its CEOs/Chairperson and it has won numerous awards for its Outstanding Management etc.,
HSBC Holdings
(One of the Largest Banking Group in the World, currently ranked at 5th or 6th)
I've been warning the HK HSI to fall dramatically since July 2007 (NOT 2008), reminding others to start considering to buy ONLY when HSI fell to SARS LEVEL in 2003, that is, at 8,000. But of course, noone was listening to me - especially when the HSI hit the Historical High of 31,638 on 31 Oct 2007!
For the last few days, everyone finally rang/E Mailed me, stating that,
"I wish I had listened to you back then!"
I'd stated in my previous blog how Low I believe the HSI and DJIA would be. dated 12 Oct, titled "How Low Could It Be?" (Using the same principle, S&P/ASX200 should fall to around 1,000 points)
When to buy HSBC : when it drops to around HK$60.
(Today closed at HK$75, although one year High was at HK$152)
How to buy : 1/3 at HK$60, another 1/3 at HK$48, last 1/3 at around HK$38.
Fund Involved : STILL KEEP 50% CASH after buying the above HSBC.
Where to buy : For me, I'll try to buy it from the London Listing, as I mainly have NZ$ and if buy it in HK$, I am to suffer a 35% LOSS due to recent great fall of NZ$. Buying in Sterling Pounds, I am to suffer only about 5% loss on the Cross Rate. Also, buying in Sterling Pound may benefit from the future recovery of UK Economy, making a gain both in share price & exchange rate and to reduce the loss due to a sudden Depreciation of HK$.
3) Property
Although I expect the Australian Property Price to fall further, I suffer Minimum Loss.
Because the monthly interest income I receive from my Lump Sum, which I could have used for a Cash Purchase, has offset most of my monthly mortgage repayment. So, I'm in a way like "Paying a A$200 rent a week" for my Lakefront Brand New Home - the market rent for which should be around A$550-600 a week.
If interest rate AND house price are to drop significantly in USA, HK, Australia, UK etc., one may start to think buying some properties.
4) Cross Rates
If I'm to return to HK tomorrow, I'm to suffer a LOSS of abut 35% as I mainly hold NZ$. But if I continue to stay in Australia, I'm actually Better Off because the Cross Rate between NZ$ and A$ has risen from A$0.86 when we came here from NZ two years ago to now at A$0.89.
So, one should start looking at Cross Rates to ensure how they could be suffering Less Loss, some like my UK friends, they acutally made a Gain of 25-30 %, even thoug Sterling Pounds has dropped to a 5-Year Low against US$!
Noone knows your Full Circumstances better than Yourself, so make a Good Assessment of your Current Financial Situation and make the Next Right Move to Minimise your Potential Huge Loss.
It's Coming - the Greatest CRASH.
I could be Totally Wrong. But if I'm Right, you'll NOT be Alright!
Fate
Investment is about Having Discipline
The Australian Benchmark S&P/ASX200 fell to 4-Year Low.
The HK HSI fell by over 1,600 points or 12.7% to 11,015 - a Drop of about 65% from its Peak.
In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell to a 26-Year Low - Yes, the Lowest since 1982.
There will be more troubles ahead as the world's 2nd largest economy's shares tumbled so badly.
So, what have you been doing to protect your Hard Earned Cash?
For the last few days, I've been receiving many calls/E Mails from my friends in Toronto, New York, Beijing, HK, Sydney etc., asking if it's the Best Time to buy. If so, What, How and Where to Buy.
So, I think I may as well share with you lot here.
1) Currency
I've mentioned in my blog dated 18 Oct, titled "Difference", stating that I am to buy some A$ while waiting for the CRASH in the share markets.
My Instinct at the time was to buy "Below A$1 = HK$5.5."
(AT the time it was A$1 = HK$5.2)
Although I'd a HK$ loan from my bank in HK, I had to fight the Bureaucracy in trying to get the money sent to my bank in Australia in A$ for the last week. And now, A$ drops to HK$ 4.75 - drops by about 8.6%. (www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data) Thanks to the Bureaucracy!
I later visited the website, www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory, confirming during the last 2,000 days (i.e. between 8.5.03 & 27.10.08) there were only 4 days A$ was around $HK4.90 before this week. The Average of these 2000 days is HK$6.076, High is HK$7.624 and Low? Just made today at around HK$4.75!!
I believe the current strength of US$ will NOT last long.
Everyone is soon to wake up and realise US$ worths much less than what it is now, because the US Government just keeps printing money to bail out almost every industry!! A Big Fall is inevitable. (Although there will be a Time Gap - just like when I first warned others about the CRASH back in July 2007)
So I'm to buy more NZ$/A$. Again, using the 1/3 Approach. Putting another 1/3 in when it drops by another 20% and so forth - we're only Humans and we will make Mistakes, so always better to buy in phases.
Better Be Safe than Sorry.
2) Share
I'll only buy one share.
Because I'm a customer of it for the last 23 years, have been keeping an eye on it since early 90's, its leading position in China/HK, Asia and the World, I have received personal apology from its CEOs/Chairperson and it has won numerous awards for its Outstanding Management etc.,
HSBC Holdings
(One of the Largest Banking Group in the World, currently ranked at 5th or 6th)
I've been warning the HK HSI to fall dramatically since July 2007 (NOT 2008), reminding others to start considering to buy ONLY when HSI fell to SARS LEVEL in 2003, that is, at 8,000. But of course, noone was listening to me - especially when the HSI hit the Historical High of 31,638 on 31 Oct 2007!
For the last few days, everyone finally rang/E Mailed me, stating that,
"I wish I had listened to you back then!"
I'd stated in my previous blog how Low I believe the HSI and DJIA would be. dated 12 Oct, titled "How Low Could It Be?" (Using the same principle, S&P/ASX200 should fall to around 1,000 points)
When to buy HSBC : when it drops to around HK$60.
(Today closed at HK$75, although one year High was at HK$152)
How to buy : 1/3 at HK$60, another 1/3 at HK$48, last 1/3 at around HK$38.
Fund Involved : STILL KEEP 50% CASH after buying the above HSBC.
Where to buy : For me, I'll try to buy it from the London Listing, as I mainly have NZ$ and if buy it in HK$, I am to suffer a 35% LOSS due to recent great fall of NZ$. Buying in Sterling Pounds, I am to suffer only about 5% loss on the Cross Rate. Also, buying in Sterling Pound may benefit from the future recovery of UK Economy, making a gain both in share price & exchange rate and to reduce the loss due to a sudden Depreciation of HK$.
3) Property
Although I expect the Australian Property Price to fall further, I suffer Minimum Loss.
Because the monthly interest income I receive from my Lump Sum, which I could have used for a Cash Purchase, has offset most of my monthly mortgage repayment. So, I'm in a way like "Paying a A$200 rent a week" for my Lakefront Brand New Home - the market rent for which should be around A$550-600 a week.
If interest rate AND house price are to drop significantly in USA, HK, Australia, UK etc., one may start to think buying some properties.
4) Cross Rates
If I'm to return to HK tomorrow, I'm to suffer a LOSS of abut 35% as I mainly hold NZ$. But if I continue to stay in Australia, I'm actually Better Off because the Cross Rate between NZ$ and A$ has risen from A$0.86 when we came here from NZ two years ago to now at A$0.89.
So, one should start looking at Cross Rates to ensure how they could be suffering Less Loss, some like my UK friends, they acutally made a Gain of 25-30 %, even thoug Sterling Pounds has dropped to a 5-Year Low against US$!
Noone knows your Full Circumstances better than Yourself, so make a Good Assessment of your Current Financial Situation and make the Next Right Move to Minimise your Potential Huge Loss.
It's Coming - the Greatest CRASH.
I could be Totally Wrong. But if I'm Right, you'll NOT be Alright!
Fate
Investment is about Having Discipline
Sunday, October 26, 2008
WWIII
The World is now at War - the WWIII.
A War with NO identified enemy.
A War with NO end in sight.
A War with the Largest Casualties.
A War looks like almost Everyone is a Loser.
We are all now facing this New War in the Globale Financial Markets.
Everything is Possible.
Everything could be Terrible.
The Emerging Market has now become "Emergency" Market.
They are all in Big Troubles -from Argentina in Latin America, to South Korea in Asia, to South Africa in Africa, to Hungary in Europe, to Ukraine in Old USSR Block etc. and to the once the UNbreakable "BRIC" (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India & China). Not only their share markets are falling like mad, so are most of their currencies.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12481004
Iceland has become "Isolatedland".
The First Country went down in the current Meltdown. In fact, the first Western Developed Nation that needs to be rescued since 1976! There are more falling countries lining up requesting help from IMF.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279
Britain has been "Beaten".
Its Economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter - the first time in 16 years. And its currency dropped by over 5% on Friday - the Biggest one day fall in 37 years and is now at US$1.53, back to the level seen in 2002! And two of its Banking Giants, HSBC & Barclay's dropped by 15% the same day. Its property price is expected to fall by another 16% in 2009 and will not bottom until 2010 - by then it will be 33% from the Peak reached in Mid 2007.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165154?tid=relatedcl
HK has shown its Undisputed Commitment towards the "One Country, Two System".
Its HSI lost over 1,100 points, 8.3% on Friday - falling three times more than its Mainland China counterparts! In fact, HK share market has lost over US$14.6 Trillion in value for the last 9 months, and is now valued at US$8.6 Trillion only! None of the 50 Blue Chips making up the HSI now values more than HK$100 - which was once Incomprehensible!
USA - what can I say?
Massive Unemployment on its way.
Yahoo to cut 10% workforce, so is Goldman Sach. Chrysler has the Biggest Cut - 25% of its workforce. USA is soon to have the 7% then 8% then 9% Unemployment Rate! And the16th Bank collapse happened just last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/26layoffs.html?_r=l&hp&oref=slogin
Australia - three mortgage funds stopped investors from redeeming on Friday. One of which owned by the Richest Man in Australia, whose mining firm's shares once rose by 40% in a month and 300% in a year - thanks to China.
Now, anyone putting A$1 million into any bank has to pay a fee. Still I believe Australia is better place in this current WWIII. Australian Economy is more dependant on China than US. Although China is slowing down with its lowest growth in 5 years, this 9% growth is still amusing - Japan or South Korean could not achieve this rate even in their boom years and the last time USA had this growth rate was about 50 years ago!
Also, there are about 1million Aussies working overseas, mainly in USA and UK. Many of them may have to return Australia due to firms scaling down. Their US$ and UK Sterling now buy 33% and 25% More A$ than 3-month and 1 year ago respectively, the Interest Rate being cut so aggressively and more help from the Federal Government (e.g.1st Home Grant, Stamp Duty Concession), this will make the property much attractive to them, making the adjustment in Australian Property Market more bearable.
Hedges Fund, the once Darling of the Investment World, has now become "Hitted Fund".
Because it is supposed to make big money regardless of the fall.
More than 200 Hedge Funds have gone since the beginning of this year. And is tipped to have another between 500-2500 (from between a total of 8,000-10,000) gone before the end of this year - the share prices in every market are now under Tremendous Downward Pressure.
Just in case you have not noticed, the share markets in USA, UK, Australia is already 40% down from their Peak about a year ago. HK fell more than 62% for the same period!
This is , however, ONLY the Beginning of the Most Disastrous Ending.
We had one of two Developing Countries defaulted on their debt at one time;
We had one or two Big Hedge Funds collapsed at one time;
We had a few Country Currencies being attacked at one time;
We had Big House Price Fall in one or two Countries at one time;
We had one or two Countries in Deep Recession in one time;
We had High Unemployment in one or two Countries at one time etc. etc.
But we have NOT had the above happening ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
How are you to Protect Yourself from this Most Brutal WW?
Next time, let me share with you what I have been doing/will do, giving you some ideas what you can do after assessing your Own Circumstances.
Fate
Make the Most of YOUR Circumstances
A War with NO identified enemy.
A War with NO end in sight.
A War with the Largest Casualties.
A War looks like almost Everyone is a Loser.
We are all now facing this New War in the Globale Financial Markets.
Everything is Possible.
Everything could be Terrible.
The Emerging Market has now become "Emergency" Market.
They are all in Big Troubles -from Argentina in Latin America, to South Korea in Asia, to South Africa in Africa, to Hungary in Europe, to Ukraine in Old USSR Block etc. and to the once the UNbreakable "BRIC" (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India & China). Not only their share markets are falling like mad, so are most of their currencies.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12481004
Iceland has become "Isolatedland".
The First Country went down in the current Meltdown. In fact, the first Western Developed Nation that needs to be rescued since 1976! There are more falling countries lining up requesting help from IMF.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279
Britain has been "Beaten".
Its Economy contracted by 0.5% in the last quarter - the first time in 16 years. And its currency dropped by over 5% on Friday - the Biggest one day fall in 37 years and is now at US$1.53, back to the level seen in 2002! And two of its Banking Giants, HSBC & Barclay's dropped by 15% the same day. Its property price is expected to fall by another 16% in 2009 and will not bottom until 2010 - by then it will be 33% from the Peak reached in Mid 2007.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165154?tid=relatedcl
HK has shown its Undisputed Commitment towards the "One Country, Two System".
Its HSI lost over 1,100 points, 8.3% on Friday - falling three times more than its Mainland China counterparts! In fact, HK share market has lost over US$14.6 Trillion in value for the last 9 months, and is now valued at US$8.6 Trillion only! None of the 50 Blue Chips making up the HSI now values more than HK$100 - which was once Incomprehensible!
USA - what can I say?
Massive Unemployment on its way.
Yahoo to cut 10% workforce, so is Goldman Sach. Chrysler has the Biggest Cut - 25% of its workforce. USA is soon to have the 7% then 8% then 9% Unemployment Rate! And the16th Bank collapse happened just last week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/26layoffs.html?_r=l&hp&oref=slogin
Australia - three mortgage funds stopped investors from redeeming on Friday. One of which owned by the Richest Man in Australia, whose mining firm's shares once rose by 40% in a month and 300% in a year - thanks to China.
Now, anyone putting A$1 million into any bank has to pay a fee. Still I believe Australia is better place in this current WWIII. Australian Economy is more dependant on China than US. Although China is slowing down with its lowest growth in 5 years, this 9% growth is still amusing - Japan or South Korean could not achieve this rate even in their boom years and the last time USA had this growth rate was about 50 years ago!
Also, there are about 1million Aussies working overseas, mainly in USA and UK. Many of them may have to return Australia due to firms scaling down. Their US$ and UK Sterling now buy 33% and 25% More A$ than 3-month and 1 year ago respectively, the Interest Rate being cut so aggressively and more help from the Federal Government (e.g.1st Home Grant, Stamp Duty Concession), this will make the property much attractive to them, making the adjustment in Australian Property Market more bearable.
Hedges Fund, the once Darling of the Investment World, has now become "Hitted Fund".
Because it is supposed to make big money regardless of the fall.
More than 200 Hedge Funds have gone since the beginning of this year. And is tipped to have another between 500-2500 (from between a total of 8,000-10,000) gone before the end of this year - the share prices in every market are now under Tremendous Downward Pressure.
Just in case you have not noticed, the share markets in USA, UK, Australia is already 40% down from their Peak about a year ago. HK fell more than 62% for the same period!
This is , however, ONLY the Beginning of the Most Disastrous Ending.
We had one of two Developing Countries defaulted on their debt at one time;
We had one or two Big Hedge Funds collapsed at one time;
We had a few Country Currencies being attacked at one time;
We had Big House Price Fall in one or two Countries at one time;
We had one or two Countries in Deep Recession in one time;
We had High Unemployment in one or two Countries at one time etc. etc.
But we have NOT had the above happening ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
How are you to Protect Yourself from this Most Brutal WW?
Next time, let me share with you what I have been doing/will do, giving you some ideas what you can do after assessing your Own Circumstances.
Fate
Make the Most of YOUR Circumstances
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Worst is NOT Over
Wall ST fell by 5.69% overnight. And the reason?
Do we actually need any reason in the current nervous climate?
Just a sudden change of Sentiment could push down the Wall St by another 5%, 6% or even 10%.
Alright, this time they said it is the concerns over Corporate Profitability.
Is this News?
Almost a year ago, all these big firms (the big banks in particular) started writing off Historical level of Bad Debts, inviting Sovereign Funds, Foreign Investors etc. to pull in more Capitals.
And yet, quarter after quarter, there are still massive write off - contrary to the CEOs' claim of "The Worst is Over!"
E.g. Citi Group has a straight 4 Quarter Results in Red!
Not so long ago, RBS was fighting with Barclay's for the control of the Netherland Bank, ABN AMRO. And then they both started to fight for their own survival. Barclay's had to call in overseas investors to stay afloat and RBS?
The British Government has to rush in and take control!
And then the Netherland Giant, ING.
It bought the collapsed Baring's in Britain back in mid 90's and until about a month ago, was a potential candidate to bail out the falling Fortis. And now?
It has just been bailed out by the Netherland Government!
And the Once Reputable Red Chip (i.e. a Blue Chip with Strong Chinese Government Connection) in HK has just reported a Massive Loss on One Item alone - Hedging on A$, resulting in Giantic Loss of HK$15 Billion (i.e. about A$3 Billion) and, that is, 50% of the Firm's Market Value. Its share dropped by 55% in one day and about 80% in two days!
So far, vast majority of "Mum & Dad" Investors are drowned in this "Financial Tsunami". Some Institutional Investors still holding on to some shares, hoping that the Worst is over and firms soon start to be making profits and paying good dividends again. Now, they realise this Hope remains a Hope only and will not come True in the near future and are increasingly under pressure to cash in their holdings.
The effects of this "Financial Tsunami" are gradually reflecting in the broader economy (e.g. Higher Unemployment), though as the Financial Secretary in HK recently stated in the public,
"We have NOT seen the Worst yet."
And the CEO of the HSBC has also claimed after laying off thousands of jobs within HSBC,
"I could not promise there will not be any more job cuts."
And the Governor for the Bank of England just stated,
"Britain is in Recession."
And the already confirmed in Recession NZ, just cut its official rate by 1% to 6.5% this morning.
Australia?
Well, we are of course better placed than US. Our official rate is at 6% and theirs at 1.5%
If we are to continue cutting rate by 1% at a time, we still have 6 times to go before reaching 0.
And US has only 1 1/2 time - NO more silver bullets?
There are some Economists already worrying US is to have a Prolong Recession like the Japan in the 90s.
And now Iceland is down, Pakistan in also in the line to seek IMF's help, South Korea is defending its currency and Hungary has put up its interest rate by 3% to also defend its currency, fencing off the Hungary Speculators!
And More and More Hedge Funds are collapsing in everywhere.
Not to mention the full extent of Damage caused by the collapsed Lehmans has yet to be fully comprehended. (The US 64 Trillion CDS market)
The Worst is NOT over - you'll be if you still have NOT changed your Mentality and Strategy!
Fate
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Do we actually need any reason in the current nervous climate?
Just a sudden change of Sentiment could push down the Wall St by another 5%, 6% or even 10%.
Alright, this time they said it is the concerns over Corporate Profitability.
Is this News?
Almost a year ago, all these big firms (the big banks in particular) started writing off Historical level of Bad Debts, inviting Sovereign Funds, Foreign Investors etc. to pull in more Capitals.
And yet, quarter after quarter, there are still massive write off - contrary to the CEOs' claim of "The Worst is Over!"
E.g. Citi Group has a straight 4 Quarter Results in Red!
Not so long ago, RBS was fighting with Barclay's for the control of the Netherland Bank, ABN AMRO. And then they both started to fight for their own survival. Barclay's had to call in overseas investors to stay afloat and RBS?
The British Government has to rush in and take control!
And then the Netherland Giant, ING.
It bought the collapsed Baring's in Britain back in mid 90's and until about a month ago, was a potential candidate to bail out the falling Fortis. And now?
It has just been bailed out by the Netherland Government!
And the Once Reputable Red Chip (i.e. a Blue Chip with Strong Chinese Government Connection) in HK has just reported a Massive Loss on One Item alone - Hedging on A$, resulting in Giantic Loss of HK$15 Billion (i.e. about A$3 Billion) and, that is, 50% of the Firm's Market Value. Its share dropped by 55% in one day and about 80% in two days!
So far, vast majority of "Mum & Dad" Investors are drowned in this "Financial Tsunami". Some Institutional Investors still holding on to some shares, hoping that the Worst is over and firms soon start to be making profits and paying good dividends again. Now, they realise this Hope remains a Hope only and will not come True in the near future and are increasingly under pressure to cash in their holdings.
The effects of this "Financial Tsunami" are gradually reflecting in the broader economy (e.g. Higher Unemployment), though as the Financial Secretary in HK recently stated in the public,
"We have NOT seen the Worst yet."
And the CEO of the HSBC has also claimed after laying off thousands of jobs within HSBC,
"I could not promise there will not be any more job cuts."
And the Governor for the Bank of England just stated,
"Britain is in Recession."
And the already confirmed in Recession NZ, just cut its official rate by 1% to 6.5% this morning.
Australia?
Well, we are of course better placed than US. Our official rate is at 6% and theirs at 1.5%
If we are to continue cutting rate by 1% at a time, we still have 6 times to go before reaching 0.
And US has only 1 1/2 time - NO more silver bullets?
There are some Economists already worrying US is to have a Prolong Recession like the Japan in the 90s.
And now Iceland is down, Pakistan in also in the line to seek IMF's help, South Korea is defending its currency and Hungary has put up its interest rate by 3% to also defend its currency, fencing off the Hungary Speculators!
And More and More Hedge Funds are collapsing in everywhere.
Not to mention the full extent of Damage caused by the collapsed Lehmans has yet to be fully comprehended. (The US 64 Trillion CDS market)
The Worst is NOT over - you'll be if you still have NOT changed your Mentality and Strategy!
Fate
Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Where is the Money gone?
There are a lot of people saying the following recently about the ever dropping share markets,
"Oh.....I wish I had not bought it then!"
"Gosh! What's going on? How low could it be?"
"I wish I had the money to buy some shares now - look at the Bargains!"
The Question is,
Where is their Money gone?
Either Lost it or Tied to some may never bounced back shares.
The Reason is?
These people have made the Wrong Comparison, so
When the share market dropped by 15%, 50% of Investors thought it was low, then rushed to buy.
The market continued to drop by another 15%, another 30% Investors thought it was low, so rushed to buy.
But the share dropped by further 10% , another 10% Investors thought it was low and rushed to buy it.
90% Investors thought it was low because they were comparing with,
"The Lowest for the last 52 weeks";
"The Lowest for the last 3 Years"; or
"The Lowest for the last 5 years"
They forgot the current Crisis is, according to many commentators, at least the Worst in 20 years.
Some say (e.g. the British Treasurer) the Worst since WWII (i.e. in 40 years) .
And a few (e.g. Federal Reserve Chairperson, Bernanke) have stressed this is "The Worst since the Great Depression 1929"
So, the Patient Investors are still waiting, with their Cash ready, in the best position to capture this "Once in a Century" (according to the last Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan) Opportunity.
Because these 10% are convinced the Biggest Fall has yet to come.
Like Life itself, Investment is also about "Having Self Discipline" - Don't Buy because Others are Buying. And "Patience" is a Must Have Quality.
Fate
Be Patient. Be A Winner
"Oh.....I wish I had not bought it then!"
"Gosh! What's going on? How low could it be?"
"I wish I had the money to buy some shares now - look at the Bargains!"
The Question is,
Where is their Money gone?
Either Lost it or Tied to some may never bounced back shares.
The Reason is?
These people have made the Wrong Comparison, so
When the share market dropped by 15%, 50% of Investors thought it was low, then rushed to buy.
The market continued to drop by another 15%, another 30% Investors thought it was low, so rushed to buy.
But the share dropped by further 10% , another 10% Investors thought it was low and rushed to buy it.
90% Investors thought it was low because they were comparing with,
"The Lowest for the last 52 weeks";
"The Lowest for the last 3 Years"; or
"The Lowest for the last 5 years"
They forgot the current Crisis is, according to many commentators, at least the Worst in 20 years.
Some say (e.g. the British Treasurer) the Worst since WWII (i.e. in 40 years) .
And a few (e.g. Federal Reserve Chairperson, Bernanke) have stressed this is "The Worst since the Great Depression 1929"
So, the Patient Investors are still waiting, with their Cash ready, in the best position to capture this "Once in a Century" (according to the last Federal Reserve Chairperson, Alan Greenspan) Opportunity.
Because these 10% are convinced the Biggest Fall has yet to come.
Like Life itself, Investment is also about "Having Self Discipline" - Don't Buy because Others are Buying. And "Patience" is a Must Have Quality.
Fate
Be Patient. Be A Winner
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